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The Bush administration's recent announcement that it intends to raise the target for average light truck fuel economy to 22.2 miles per gallon by 2007 from 20.7 miles per gallon today may not seem like much of a move. But considering that the Corporate Average Fuel Economy target for trucks changed not at all during the eight years of the Clinton-Gore team, this decision by an avowedly pro-industry Republican administration signals an important change in the weather.

Auto makers can probably hit the new targets without profound changes to their truck fleets. But the new targets are going to put heat on some players -- notably GM, which told the government that it expected to undershoot the old 20.7 miles per gallon target in 2005 and 2006 and make just 20.9 miles per gallon on average for 2007. (The targets reflect GM's expectations for a weighted average of the fuel economy of all its light trucks. The way the scoring system works, the more low-mileage, heavy V-8 powered trucks you sell, the worse the score.) One industry executive told me recently that it costs about $800 million for a car maker to add one mile per gallon to the CAFE score of its light truck fleet.

What will consumers see as a result? More trucks with technologies like aluminum-block engines, electronic throttles, and "displacement on demand," a system that shuts off two or four cylinders of an eight-cylinder motor to conserve fuel while cruising. And look for Detroit to start pushing hybrid gas-electric propulsion systems and diesel engines into more pickups and SUVs. Another potential outcome of the new regulatory pressure: more station wagons. That's because one idea under review is to revamp the definitions of light trucks for fuel-economy purposes, possibly to give car makers the flexibility to class wagons like the Pacifica as trucks, thus helping their overall truck averages.

Safety

Safety may be last on my list, but it's not necessarily last on consumers' lists of automotive concerns. As I noted last week1, 2003 could well be the year that side-impact crash safety gets a much higher profile, as the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety begins publicizing the results of its new, and quite severe, broadside crash tests. Industry executives are already jittery, because advance word is that very few models are going to do well in this test. Over time, it's a good bet that cars are going to get more side airbags, including bags designed to protect the head, and more padding inside.

What's over the horizon in safety? Possibly new designs for seat belts. Ford earlier this year showed off a design for a four-point seat belt, similar to the systems race-car drivers use. Engineers said the four-point belts offer distinct advantages over three-point belts, and hinted that Ford might offer such a system in a consumer vehicle. And if automotive-technology suppliers can deliver the goods, look for more cars to offer systems designed to avoid accidents, such as side-scanning radar that detects other vehicles in blind spots.

Eyes on the Road will return Jan. 6 with a report from the Detroit Auto Show. Happy holidays!
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/24/business/24AUTO.html?ex=1041709317&ei=1&en=ce97e1db173f0776

December 24, 2002 NY Times

By DANNY HAKIM

DETROIT, Dec. 23 — General Motors, which has been the most reticent major carmaker when it came to the prospects for hybrid vehicles, intends to offer some form of hybrid electric power on five of its major models over the next four production years, according to people briefed on the plan.

G.M.'s plan, which will be announced next month at the North American International Auto Show here, is a surprising endorsement of the fledgling hybrid technology, which improves gasoline mileage by supplementing the internal combustion engine with electric power. G.M., the largest automaker, will offer several versions of the hybrid technology. The most advanced will be on the Saturn Vue sport utility vehicle, while less advanced versions will be available on the GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks, a coming Chevrolet pickup called the Equinox and the Chevrolet Malibu.

The development is a sign that the Big Three are growing increasingly serious about the technology as a business threat from overseas. For several years, Toyota and Honda have been the only companies offering hybrid cars. The Toyota Prius, for instance, has an electric motor that takes over for the internal combustion engine at low speeds. The car never needs plugging in, a shortcoming of battery-powered cars, because the battery is recharged by the gasoline engine. Honda sells a small aluminum hybrid, called the Insight, and a hybrid version of its Civic.

"G.M. needs an aggressive plan just to keep pace with the Japanese, who view this as a core technology over the next decade," said John Casesa, an analyst with Merrill Lynch, when told of the plan. "It's an idea that hasn't arrived yet, but whose time is coming fast. This is going from an environmental and public relations curiosity to a generally accepted commercial product."

G.M.'s plan, along with those of the rest of the industry, could also have considerable tax implications for the country. The Internal Revenue Service already allows a $2,000 deduction for vehicles that use alternative fuels or some form of electric power, and Congress has been considering further incentives. Toyota has already said it plans to sell 300,000 hybrids a year worldwide, many of them in the United States, within five years. The Ford Motor Company plans to start selling a hybrid version of its Escape sport utility vehicle a year from now. And DaimlerChrysler has said it will sell a hybrid version of the Dodge Ram pickup truck next year.

G.M. is presenting several versions of the technology. The most advanced, and most like the Prius, will come in 2005, when the company will offer a hybrid version of the 2006 Saturn Vue with average gas mileage of nearly 40 miles a gallon, compared with average mileage as high as 25 for the nonhybrid versions, people briefed on the plan said.

All told, the technologies will be used on three chief manufacturing platforms, meaning that G.M. could use it in as many as one million vehicles and a dozen models by 2007 if the demand materializes.

Environmentalists expressed a mixture of encouragement and disappointment at the news, part of which was reported today by The Wall Street Journal, and said that the Vue, as described, would be a significant improvement. "G.M.'s hybrid plans are a mixed bag," said David Friedman, an engineer and analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists. "The full hybrid Saturn Vue appears to be a move toward good hybrid technology. The other vehicles are an example of using good conventional technology."

"Labeling them as hybrids is an attempt to ride the

"You've got to imagine some of this comes from their anxiety about California and wanting to be prepared for potential regulations here that would essentially force the use of hybrid technologies," he said.

Indeed, because of coming regulations expected on the federal level and from California, the nation's largest auto market, G.M.'s plan could be seen as a matter of necessity. Last month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced a plan that would raise federal fuel economy standards 7 percent by the 2007 model year. Though environmental groups derided the plan as a baby step, it is the largest increase in more than a decade.

And considerable pressure is coming from California. Because the state's clean-air laws predated the federal government's, it has retained the authority to set its own air standards, and other states can opt to use California's tougher standards. Mr. Long's group drafted a proposal to cut automotive greenhouse-gas emissions that has become law in California. The industry is expected to mount a vigorous legal challenge before the law is to take effect late in the decade.

Still, G.M.'s hybrid plan is a notable step toward improved fuel efficiency for a company that had previously been noncommittal on the idea of producing a full hybrid vehicle.

"I don't think anybody's got confidence that the economics make any sense," Rick Wagoner, G.M.'s chief executive, said in an interview in August. At a meeting in the late 90's, company officials decided to throw most of G.M.'s research-and-development dollars behind hydrogen fuel cells, which the industry has embraced as the power source that will eventually make the internal combustion engine obsolete. But there is wide disagreement on when fuel cells will be ready for mass marketing, and on the big challenges like outfitting the nation's filling stations with hydrogen instead of gasoline.

The economic equation will be addressed by relying on government incentives. G.M. plans to price the hybrids at cost, meaning that they could cost a few thousand dollars more than the conventional versions of similar vehicles at first.

Increasingly, fuel economy is becoming a business issue as well as an environmental one and attracting the attention of Wall Street. Mr. Casesa of Merrill Lynch said, "We're moving toward a future with higher fuel-economy standards, risks to energy supplies and higher environmental consciousness."

"If we decide to dramatically increase fuel economy," he added, "there is no way to do that besides making cars smaller, unless you have a new technology. And this is that technology."
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-polcol30dec30.story

December 30, 2002 LA Times

Patt Morrison:

Hybrid Autos to Get Their Own Show Outside

At the big L.A. Auto Show inside the Convention Center on Friday morning, it'll be fossil-fuel heaven (with probably a few experimental-fuel vehicles).

Outside, it'll be about clean and green machines, as the Union of Concerned Scientists enlists pols and celebs to put faces behind the steering wheels when it releases its report on the benefits of hybrid cars and trucks (how does 60 miles per gallon sound?).

Elected hybrid car owners Eric Garcetti (the L.A. City Council member has two of them), Assemblywoman Gloria Negrete McLeod (a Chino Democrat), and Santa Monica's Councilman Kevin McKeown will be matching rpms with famous-faced hybrid car-owner actors Ed Begley Jr. (who made a cross-country, round-trip drive in his hybrid for $150 in fuel), Mimi Kennedy, Nancy Allen and Steven Collins.

Just-plain-folk hybrid owners from El Cajon and Pomona to Simi Valley will also be driving in to show off their wheels to one another and to the public. Look for the helium balloons and banners -- but please, no wheelies in the parking lot

Patt Morrison's columns appear Mondays and Tuesdays. Her e-mail address is patt.morrison@L.A.times.com.

January 3, 2003 Lead editorial

We have several wishes for the new year. Nothing wildly ambitious, just a short list of familiar public policy ideas that have been waiting for the right person to make them real. They are not risk free, politically. If they were, they would not need leadership to move them along. But all are doable, and all would yield enormous, multiple benefits. In terms of payback-to-effort, they're our top priorities.

Given a magic lamp, we might wish for stable, responsible democratic regimes in Iraq and North Korea for the new year. But for an idea that's doable, our foreign policy choice is dismantling Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Just as terrorism is the greatest Palestinian obstacle to Middle East peace, so the settlements established in territories captured in the 1967 war are the greatest Israeli obstacle. They deprive the Palestinians of valuable land and water and deny them geographical continuity. They are hard for Israel to defend against Palestinian attack, and they make it impossible to establish a clear, secure Israeli border.

For all these reasons, the United States — which has lately ignored the issue — should press Israel to start reducing a settler population that's doubled in the last decade to 200,000 (without counting 200,000 in East Jerusalem). Israel's cooperation would show that it is serious about a two-state solution and, if matched by reciprocal concessions on the Palestinian side, would strengthen the prospects for a durable agreement.

Here's a third wish: Kill the global system of agricultural subsidies. The obvious way for poor farmers in developing countries to lift themselves out of poverty is to sell their products abroad. But they can't, mainly because rich countries have rigged the markets, subsidizing their farmers so heavily that nobody can compete. That's not only unfair but perverse: reducing farm subsidies would do far more to help poor countries than large increases in direct foreign aid.

Several proposals for reform are floating about, including a Bush administration idea for balanced and mutual reductions of subsidies in both Europe and America, so that neither gets an advantage. This deserves serious consideration. Another trifecta of payoffs awaits: more money in the pockets of the poor, greater social and political stability across the third world, and a fairer distribution of the fruits of globalization

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/4865537.htm

By Gary Gentile

Associated Press

LOS ANGELES - Chrysler Group President Dieter Zetsche on Thursday called the California market both important and problematic for domestic automakers looking to increase market share while meeting stringent environmental demands.

Chrysler wants to increase its market share in the state from 8 percent to 9.5 percent by 2004 but also wants to work with state regulators to moderate mandates for zero-emission vehicles, Zetsche said.

We want to work together with the state of California to find common ground,'' Zetsche said at the opening of the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show.

California has mandated that an increasing number of new cars and trucks sold in the state emit no pollution.

The mandate was to have taken effect this year, but auto manufacturers won a preliminary injunction in June 2002 that delays implementation until 2005. Meanwhile, the California Air Resources Board will review the 13-year-old zero-emissions vehicle mandate at its Feb. 26 meeting, spokeswoman Gennet Paauwe said. The proposed changes will be made public next Friday, she said.

Earlier Thursday, Zetsche said Chrysler intends to have a hybrid car available by 2007, when rival General Motors has said it intends to begin making a hybrid car.

Diesel has the potential of powering vehicles people will demand,'' he said.

The company announced in November it would test market a diesel-powered Jeep Liberty sport-utility vehicle in North America starting in 2004.

Zetsche said it is a mistake to think that automakers have technology readily available to both reduce emissions and power cars with the styling and features consumers demand.

Fuel-cell vehicles are not yet commercially viable and electric vehicles may never be,'' he said.

California remains the single largest market for automakers, yet domestic carmakers sell less in the state than their foreign competitors.

Imports command 58 percent of the market in California, Zetsche said.

To increase market share in the state, Zetsche said Chrysler has appointed an advertising team exclusively for California. Half of all advertising dollars will be spent to attract Hispanic buyers, he said.

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/news/breaking_news/4868069.htm

Hybrid owners at LA Auto Show press Detroit for cleaner cars

GARY GENTILE

Associated Press

LOS ANGELES - More than 70 hybrid cars were parked outside the Los Angeles Convention Center Friday to send a message to Detroit automakers: There is a demand for fuel-efficient, environmentally friendly vehicles.

The gathering, with its mix of everyday hybrid owners from Sacramento to San Diego, as well as Hollywood celebrities, contrasted with the muscle cars and gas-guzzling SUVs inside at the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show.

"We're here to show that people are interested in something to promote clean air with less fuel," said Jessie Williams, who drove his Toyota Prius from El Cajon.

Actress Nancy Allen traded her Volvo in for a Prius last July.

"It's so peppy," she said. "Every day I drive it, I feel I'm giving something back to the environment and giving something back to myself."

Hybrid cars combine a gasoline engine with an electric motor. Some cars, like the Prius, use the electric motor exclusively at low speeds, while others, such as Honda's Civic, use power from both at all speeds.

Hybrids cost more than conventional cars. But buyers can qualify for a federal tax deduction and local tax incentives in some areas.

Chrysler Group President Dieter Zetsche downplayed hybrids in a speech Thursday, saying that fuel cell technology is the ultimate answer and that improving existing diesel technology is a better short-term alternative.

Ford is producing a hybrid SUV and introduced a reduced-emissions Focus at the show Thursday.

General Motors is expected to announce its hybrid strategy at the Detroit Auto Show next week. Zetsche said Chrysler, which makes a hybrid Dodge Ram truck, will have a hybrid passenger car in production by 2007, when GM is planning to introduce its hybrid car.

Union of Concerned Scientists analyst David Friedman said the technology is not as important as domestic automakers' willingness to put fuel-efficient cars into production now.

"I don't think hybrids are the only option," he said. "It's about giving consumers more options. Diesel is interesting. Let's put it in the mix and let the market go at it."

Actress Donna Mills stopped driving her Lexus when she bought one of the first Prius hybrids 2 1/2 years ago.

"Enough already with being dependent on foreign countries for oil or drilling in the Arctic for oil," she said Friday. "People want these cars. People love them. Make them."
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/4873219.htm

Posted on Sat, Jan. 04, 2003

AUTOMAKERS RESPONDING TO SALES

By Matt Nauman

Mercury News

Friday, some celebrities were among more than 70 hybrid drivers who parked their cars outside the Los Angeles Auto Show to send a message to automakers and lawmakers that there is a demand for fuel-efficient cars.

It's so peppy,'' said actress Nancy Allen, who bought a Prius last summer.

Every day I drive it, I feel I'm giving something back to the environment and giving something back to myself.''

Hybrids, which rely on electric motors to propel the car at low speeds and turn off their gas engines when waiting at a traffic signal, have seen slow but steady sales growth. With California regulators leading the way, the government is also pushing automakers to dramatically reduce exhaust emissions and improve fuel efficiency.

There are signs that automakers are responding. Monday, General Motors will announce plans to offer a full line of hybrid vehicles, from sedans to pickups to small and large SUVs -- greatly expanding the choices beyond today's compacts from Toyota and Honda.

The first ones, hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups with 15 to 20 percent better fuel economy, will be available to fleet customers this year, and to regular buyers in 2004, GM will announce at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. GM says it will be able to sell up to 1 million hybrids by 2007.

More choices

Also in Detroit, Toyota is expected to say it will soon expand its hybrid offerings beyond the Prius. USA Today has reported the automaker will offer hybrid technology in its Highlander and Lexus RX 330 SUVs by 2005. Some analysts think the bestselling Camry will get it, too.

Ford has previously announced that it will make a hybrid version of its Escape sport-utility in 2004. And DaimlerChrysler says it will make a hybrid truck this year.

The Escape will certainly be the one that will find a good market out there,'' he said.