Printed 10/19/16 Page of

DAN NEIL

October 29, 2003

TOKYO — Sofia Coppola's film "Lost in Translation" with Bill Murray — a tender tone poem of alienation set in Tokyo — gets it just about right. Americans visiting the city the first time experience a peculiar kind of isolation. Unable to speak the language and so unmoored from the familiar, they tend to mentally disengage. If you walk by the Park Hyatt, the triptych skyscraper in Shinjuku district featured in the film, you can see them in silhouette, staring down from their hotel windows as if looking through a glass-bottom boat.

The story, I understand, belongs to the characters Bob and Charlotte and their gilded ennui. But the film feels a little ungenerous toward Japan and its people, who are flattened to neon-lighted cutouts, zany, overly solicitous, faintly ridiculous. Lost in cinematic translation is the deep decency of this country and its people, their tolerance and sense of communal responsibility.

It's no wonder Americans feel like strangers in a strange land.

This year's Tokyo Motor Show showcased the synergy between Japan's technological prowess and its progressive spirit. Since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the Japanese have assumed leadership on the issue of global warming. In 2001, the Japanese government announced a plan to put more than 10 million low-emission vehicles on the road and 50,000 fuel-cell vehicles by 2010. About 106,000 clean-energy vehicles have been sold in Japan since 1995.

These imperatives have required an enormous investment by Japanese automakers. But it isn't quite altruism. With China's automotive market demand about to explode — potentially 20 million vehicles per year — most everyone understands that clean-car technology will be essential. The Japanese automakers are poised to dominate this crucial battleground and make a lot of money in the process.

Clean-car technologies dominated the Makuhari Messe convention center, both hybrid powertrains, which blend electrical and internal-combustion power, and fuel cells, devices that catalyze hydrogen to create electricity with no toxic emissions.

Somewhere on the developmental continuum between them is Mazda Motor Corp.'s RX-8 Hydrogen RE, powered by a rotary engine that runs on gasoline or gaseous hydrogen. Analogous to BMW's hydrogen-burning V-8 engines, the hydrogen rotary — if it could be made more efficient — would mark an admirable interim solution on the way to fuel-cell electric power.

The show took place only weeks after Honda Motor Co. announced a breakthrough in fuel-cell design. Honda's new fuel-cell stack is smaller, easier and cheaper to manufacture, and tolerant of temperatures down to minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit. (Ordinary fuel cells lose power in the cold.) Honda President and Chief Executive Takeo Fukui said at a news conference here that the new design had the potential to reduce fuel-cell production costs by 90%. Test vehicles with the new stack will undergo real-world testing in the Northeastern United States this fall.

To underscore the packaging advantages of the new, more compact fuel cell, Honda unveiled the minimalist Kiwami, a flatiron-shaped concept car whose fuel-cell powertrain is built into a narrow section under the floor of the ultra-low luxury sedan. Though primarily a showcase for powertrain advancements, this handsome and masculine car would not look out of place in a collection of Bertone- designed Maseratis of the early 1970s.

Another packaging exercise based on the fungible components of fuel cells was Toyota Motor Corp.'s Fine-N, a "Minority Report"-styled earth-ship sedan driven by four 35-horsepower in-wheel electric motors.

Suzuki Motor Corp., meanwhile, unveiled one of the show's oddest concept cars, the Mobile Terrace, a kind of Plexiglas dirigible on wheels, based on General Motors Corp.'s Hy-Wire fuel-cell "skate" platform. The steering wheel and instrument panel in the Mobile Terrace can be moved around the vehicle and even converted to a centrally mounted card table.

The plausibility of many of these concepts hinged on the use of "by-wire" technology, which replaces the conventional mechanical linkages of accelerators, brakes and even steering with electronic controls that can be put almost anywhere in the car.

This is a potent technology that promises to open up valuable real estate in car design once occupied by immovable hardware.

By-wire makes possible — though not plausible — Toyota's zany pod-people mover, the PM, a kind of composite coffin on four outrigger wheels equipped with in-wheel motors. The one-passenger fuselage reclines as the vehicle attains speed.

Nearly every Asian manufacturer displayed a hybridized vehicle of one sort or the other. Among those with implications for the U.S. market: Toyota's SU-HV1, a barely disguised Lexus RX 330 all-wheel-drive hybrid powered by a 3.3-liter V-6 and electric drive motors with a combined power of 170 kilowatts. In production form, the result — a no-sacrifice, high-minded sport utility vehicle coming soon to a tennis club near you — will be tempting to U.S. consumers looking for a little guilt relief.

Nearby on the Lexus stand was a gorgeous silver bullet of a luxury sedan, the LF-S, a V-8 hybrid-powered concept car whose fluted sides, languid elongations and seamless surfaces made it look like blown glass. This is Lexus' new design icon, a signature look associated with the Lexus brand, and it was stunning.

I noted that outgoing GM design chief Wayne Cherry and his successor Ed Wellburn loitered around the stand with a certain misty longing in their eyes.

Subaru is remaking itself as well, beginning with its corporate physiognomy. Subaru's new grille design will be a sort of ideogram conveying the propeller and upturned wings of a World War II Japanese fighter (parent company Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. built war-birds).

The Subaru B9 Scrambler concept car is an exquisite little pocket rocket hybrid using a 100-kilowatt (134 horsepower) electric motor for speeds as high as 50 mph then switching on its 2.0-liter, 138-horsepower four-cylinder gas engine for higher speeds. This makes it a "sequential" hybrid. If the B9 makes it to market it will be, like all Subies, an all-wheel-drive car, though the variable ride-height suspension and run-flat tires are probably for the show circuit only.

Subaru's partnership with GM is paying off nicely for the General: An all-wheel-drive Subaru platform undergirds next year's 9-2 Saab, another corporate cousin, and the Scrambler's running gear may find its way under the anticipated Pontiac Solstice roadster.

The Lexus LF-S and the B9 Scrambler hint at a growing styling trend that employs the classic values of Japanese aesthetics — contrast of shape and line, quiet simplicity, sincerity of material — with more literal quotations.

Nissan Motor Co.'s Serenity, a six-person hatch-sedan, wore a face inspired by the harsh squint of a Kabuki mask while its windows took the shape of a Japanese fan. The Nissan Jikoo roadster used water-buffalo horn and other Edo-era textures combined with exterior styling like the straked skullcap of a Samurai helmet.

The masses and lines of the Mazda Ibuki, a next-generation Miata possibility, were rendered with anime-like polish. And every motorcycle on the stand looked as if it could transform into a killer robot at any time.

Just consider some of the concept car names: "Kiwami" (unexcelled), "Washu" (eagle's wing), Kusabi (wedge). Call it Cool Japonica.

After decades of catering to American tastes and setting up styling studios in California to better gauge our tastes, Japanese designers are growing more confident in their own authority.

Beyond the bloodless precision of high-tech (Acura TSX) and the buoyant cuteness of pomo (Toyota's new Scion xB), Japanese styling may become as distinctive as the engineering.

The Europeans know a thing or two about styling as well. Aston Martin, BMW, Bentley, Mercedes-Benz and Maserati all brought amazing sports coupes, each with its own ineffable style and decadence, each with a custom-tailored L.A. esprit.

The message here seems to be that if you can't be good, be beautiful. My favorite cars, I admit, also were those most likely to stop traffic in Beverly Hills. Maserati brought the new Pininfarina-designed Quattroporte (four door), an elegant and sensuous car that seems to go on for miles (it's shorter than 5 meters). Lush and dynamic, it's the best thing to have come out of Maserati since Ferrari took it over.

BMW's 6-Series coupe, scheduled to reach our dealerships in the spring, held center court at the Bavarian carmaker's stand, and it too is an eyeful, rakish and muscular, brooding behind its glowing-iris headlamps. But the car most likely to provoke me to grand theft auto was the Aston Martin DB9. This replacement for the DB7, to be built at the new facility in Gaydon, England, will be powered by a V-12 and offer 2+2 seating for four very fortunate people.

As the luxury quotient increases, the morphology of crossover vehicles, touring wagons and so on continues to evolve. The language to describe them grows more imprecise. What, exactly, would you call design studies like the Mercedes F500 Mind, the Lexus LF-X, the Citroen C-Airdream and the Peugeot 407 Elixir? These are large four- and five-seat, two-box designs — station wagons, if you want — with in-cabin cargo areas. The wheel size and amount of freeboard at the belt line suggest a "crossover" gene, while their steeply raked windshields, low, glassy roofs, long hoods and tapering silhouettes suggest a luxury sedan.

These 2+2 hatches, or estate wagons, or "shooting brakes," have in common a kind of elegant intimacy you don't get in a regular station wagon. They are spacious yet low to the ground. They are functional yet not exactly practical.

My neologism for these kinds of cars is "private estates," and they are a welcome relief from the trundling mass of SUVs and high-hipped crossovers. I hope they make it to market.

Like just about any other vintage car enthusiast, I've often wished for a car with vintage styling — say, the look of a Jaguar saloon car of the late 1950s — with modern safety, reliability and performance. Those with such a hunger and a little cash to spread around might consider a call to Mitsuoka Motor Co. This boutique coach builder in Tokyo specializes in attaching handcrafted bodies with Anglophile styling onto new cars. The Viewt, a 1-liter city car underneath, looks like a tiny Jaguar. The company also builds a handsome though somewhat synthetic-looking sedan based on a Honda Accord. An Accord that looks like a vintage Jag? Is this the perfect car?

One of the bestselling cars in Japan is the Suzuki Wagon R. This is a "kei" car, a city car limited to 660 cubic centimeters of engine displacement. In an effort to reduce pollution and congestion, the Japanese government created this class of vehicles and encourages their use with tax breaks and more liberal garage regulations (city dwellers must have a garage for their cars). Because they are so narrow, these vehicles have morphed into space-efficient boxes.

What's interesting is that this refrigerator-on-wheels styling is gaining a kind of subversive cachet with the digital generation. That appeal has jumped the ocean and is driving the unlikely sales success of Toyota's gothic box, the Scion xB.

If you want to know what will be hip, look east, young man.

Times automotive critic Dan Neil can be reached at dan.neil@latimes.com .

by Paul A. Eisenstein  

(2003-11-03)  

Is it a fad or the shape of things to come? So far, hybrid-electric technology has drawn more ink than sales, but under increasing pressure to go "green," automakers are getting ready to roll out a wave of high-mileage HEVs.

Ford's first will hit the road next summer, when production begins on the Escape HEV, a gasoline-electric version of the automaker's compact crossover. It's "one of the five most important product programs we have," says Phil Martens, who heads North American product development for the number two automaker.

While company officials admit they'll have to subsidize the Escape hybrid program, they also bill it as a sort of real-world learning experience, one that could have dramatic impact on the shape of Ford's future product lineup.

Hybrid primer

A basic primer is probably in order here. Hybrid-electric vehicles, or HEVs, combine at least two separate sources of power, most commonly a gasoline engine and an electric motor. But all HEVs aren't the same.

The first hybrid to reach the U.S. was the teardrop-shaped Honda Insight, a so-called "mild" hybrid. Like other HEVs, the Insight can recapture energy normally lost during braking or coasting, converting it to electricity and storing it in a battery. When a driver steps down hard on Insight's accelerator, that energy is used to drive an electric motor, adding some kick to the Insight's minuscule 1.3-liter gasoline engine.

Then there's the Toyota approach. Its Prius sedan starts out like Insight, recapturing energy normally lost, but Toyota adds an additional feature. The Prius also can operate in electric-only mode, especially when driven around town or in traffic at low speeds.

The Escape follows Toyota's model, meaning it can operate solely on gasoline power, in combined gas/electric mode, or as a pure EV.

Promising performance

When Ford first announced the project a couple of years back, it promised the hybrid would deliver the performance of the V-6 Escape while being as miserly with fuel as the smaller in-line four version. The automaker is maintaining that position as it begins pilot production. "The customer will give up nothing from the base Escape with this vehicle," declares Mary Ann Wright, who was put in charge of the project last year.

That was a bold promise, especially when the project was in the early, conceptual stage, considering Ford had no experience with hybrids, and only modest knowledge about pure electric vehicles. The automaker considered the option of sourcing hybrid technology from outside - the approach Nissan is taking. The Japanese maker has formed a joint venture giving it access to Toyota's HEV hardware. But if hybrids do become part of the mainstream in years to come, Ford reasoned it needed to learn the basics on its own, even if that put it a bit behind its competition.

Indeed, when the 2005 Escape HEV rolls out next year, Ford will be more than four years behind Honda, which introduced the Insight in 2000, and Toyota, which has already launched its second-generation Prius. But Ford officials are quick to insist it's not behind schedule. Check the archives and you'll find Chairman Bill Ford promising the first hybrid would hit the road by the end of 2003. Well, true, says Martens, but that was always going to be a pilot vehicle. Sales to the public, he insists, were always intended to begin with the 2005 model year.

Driving it home

Give Ford the benefit of the doubt for not rushing to market. Journalists were given an off-the-record test drive some of those early prototypes late last month. And while TheCarConnection can't discuss its own experiences, Wright offers insight of her own that one can consider quite on the mark.

Like other HEVs, Escape has a start/stop mode, meaning its gasoline engine actually shuts down when you're idling in traffic or at a stoplight. It's so subtle, you won't even notice, but Wright's team is still working to smooth things out when the engine automatically starts back up. They're also working to create a more natural brake pedal feel. That's more complicated than it might seem, because an HEV does a lot when you brake. It has to integrate regular friction brakes with the system designed to recapture energy and generate electricity.

The technical basics of the Escape HEV start with a 2.3-liter in-line four engine modified to run on what's known as the Atkinson cycle. This modified four-stroke design maximizes fuel economy, though at the cost of low-end torque. That's acceptable in this application because when you nail the accelerator at a light, or start a passing maneuver, the hybrid's electric motor kicks in. It puts out a peak 65 kilowatts, which translates into 87 horsepower. Think of it as an electric supercharger.

Since development work is far from complete, final mileage numbers are still a few months away, but initial indications are that the front-wheel-drive Escape HEV will get between 35 and 40 mpg in the EPA's City cycle, 29 to 31 in the Highway cycle. That may seem inverted, but it reflects the fact that hybrids get their best mileage in the stop-start driving of urban roadways. The all-wheel-drive Escape HEV should deliver 31 to 34 mpg City, 26 to 28 Highway. For comparison, the 2004 Escape with a standard V-6 is rated 19/25 City/Highway with front-drive, and 18/23 with all-wheel drive.

The HEV, incidentally, maintains the 1000-pound towing capacity of the base in-line four Escape. The Prius and Honda's two hybrids are not rated for towing.

Like the Prius, the Escape HEV features a video display instantly illustrating the particular mode the vehicle is operating in. If the Prius is any example, that can be distracting until you're used to the feature. But it has also helped Toyota drivers figure out the best ways to maximize fuel economy.

Since there's already a video screen, by the way, Ford has decided to make available a navigation system for the Escape HEV. It will be the only version of the crossover ute with this optional feature.

Modular and portable

The Ford stores its power in a package of 250 D-size nickel-metal hydride batteries. Unlike some customized battery systems that are fairly rigid in design, the Escape's climate-controlled pack is flexible in its shape. Meanwhile, Martens points out that the gasoline/electric is a modular design.

Translation: it can be tweaked to fit into just about any vehicle that can use the basic 2.3-liter in-line four. Look for the technology to show up next in the Futura sedan, one of several vehicles Ford will use to replace the aging Taurus sedan.

Beyond that? During October's Tokyo Motor Show, Toyota officials suggested they may make hybrid powertrains available, at least as an option, on virtually all future products.

"That's not our goal," at Ford, cautions Martens, adding his belief that "it's not necessary."

Ford's caution is understandable. No one is really sure what sort of market there is for HEV technology. It's so modest right now that automakers must supplement the cost, and Ford is no exception. Wright confirms the automaker will not require Escape HEV buyers to pay the full premium they would for more conventional technology. Industry analysts are betting on a final price around $3000 over the V-6 Escape.

Should a real market emerge, the plug-and-play design of Ford's HEV system would help in a rapid expansion of hybrid offerings, though Martens believes there will always be some products, such as the Mustang, for which hybrid technology won't ever make sense.

http://www.thecarconnection.com/index.asp?article=6533

SURVEY OF VEHICLES; BELOW ONLY THE SCHEDULE AS OF 10/20/03

The Chevy Tahoe and GMC Yukon large SUVs will be available in "mild hybrid" trim in 2007. 

GM's biggest news is a "full hybrid" Saturn VUE, to debut in late 2005. Offered in front-wheel drive, the VUE will get 40 mpg and meet SULEV emissions standards.

DaimlerChrysler will introduce a "mild hybrid" version of its full-size Ram pickup truck, the Dodge Ram Contractor Special, in 2004. 

Nissan last year announced a "hybrid technology exchange agreement" with Toyota, which calls for Toyota to supply "state-of-the-art hybrid system components" to Nissan, and for both companies to exchange information and discuss joint development of hybrid components. 
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20031103/ts_alt_afp/us_au to_hybrid_031103154332

Hybrid cars won't go mainstream anytime soon: US analysts

Mon Nov 3,10:43 AM ET

DETROIT, United States (AFP) - Toyota rolled out the latest version of its Prius last month, but US customers won't have many other hybrids to choose from anytime soon, analysts said

Sales of the 2004 Prius were brisker than expected, said Toyota's US sales affiliate. However, J.D. Power and Associates Monday slashed their industry-wide US sales estimates for the fuel-efficient cars after some automakers changed plans

The research firm had expected hybrid sales of about 500,000 units per year by 2008. But it cut that to 350,000 and said hybrids will account for about one percent of US car sales by 2005, rising to two percent by 2008

J.D. Power said many automakers planned to launch gasoline-electric vehicles in the near future, but have delayed or cancelled such programs as powertrain development costs soared

"The hybrid-electric vehicle market has undergone some significant changes over the past several years and those changes have caused many of the manufacturers to adopt a wait-and-see approach," said Walter McManus, the firm's executive director of global forecasting

"Hybrid electric vehicles are still a growing portion of the market, but their share is rising at a slower rate than we previously expected

"Higher-than-expected initial retail prices will slow sales growth and slower sales growth will keep prices high." DaimlerChrysler AG last year cancelled a much-touted plan to build a hybrid sport-utility vehicle. Ford Motor Co.'s hybrid Escape could meet the same fate, since its introduction reportedly has been delayed repeatedly

"Engineers can't get the bugs out of the software," Richard Truett wrote recently in Automotive News, a trade publication

Ford had originally slated the vehicle's debut for 2003, but announced Thursday that it would begin production in July, 2004 at its Kansas City assembly plant

A spokeswoman insisted Ford had only said it would produce some test models by 2003 and that it had indeed run a number of them through their paces

The world's number-two automaker refused to reveal the hybrid Escape's retail price

Toyota has held the price of the 2004 Prius steady at 20,000 dollars even with numerous upgrades, which will help the vehicle get 25 kilometers per liter (60 miles per gallon) on the highway and 21 kilometers per liter (50 miles per gallon) in the city

US car buyers bought 38,000 hybrids in 2002 -- the Prius as well as the two-seat Insight and a hybrid version of the Civic sedan from Honda

Ford hopes to sell between 10,000 and 20,000 annually. Toyota Motor Sales' target is more ambitious: 35,000 US Prius sales next year

The company has no hard sales data yet but said the response had been encouraging

"We knew (US) interest in the new Prius would be strong," said Don Esmond, Toyota's US sales chief

"However, with the incredible demand we are experiencing, we may need to request additional production from our Tsutsumi plant" in Japan," he said this week

There are of course, more hybrids in the pipeline: A total of 28 models are expected to offer hybrid powertrain options by 2008, according to J.D

Power

General Motors will launch a hybrid Saturn Vue SUV in the next two years, but that's not soon enough, critics say