US-Turkey relations good: Middle East/ war on terror

US-Turkey relations good: Middle East/ war on terror

Relations Solve Iraqi Stability, Democracy, Israel Conflict, and the Economy

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 6

[Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Elizabeth, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Alliance Relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations”, 6-15-06, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/TurkeyCSR.pdf]

Despite the discord between Washington and Ankara over the past three years, Turkey remains an ally whose strategic perspective remains largely aligned with that of the United States. Turkey has been oriented toward the West for more than half a century and is taking further steps to cement this perspective through its pursuit of EU membership, a process that Washington supports in the face of mounting European concerns about the benefits of Turkish accession. Both Ankara and Washington back a unified, federal Iraq—albeit for different reasons—and there is consensus between both governments on the need to confront global terrorism and Islamist extremism. Turkey has also used its good offices to support the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and has supported, in both words and deeds, the Bush administration’s efforts to promote democratic change in the Arab world. Finally, both Washington and Ankara share interests in the stability and economic development of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Time is growing short to build new momentum in the U.S.-Turkey relationship. Over the course of the next two years, both countries will face a series of tough foreign policy questions concerning Iraq, Iran, the Middle East, and Cyprus just as politicians in both capitals are entering election cycles. This report offers a set of policy prescriptions for the near term and recommends working toward the establishment of a broader framework to modernize the U.S.-Turkey relationship and situate the ties between Washington and Ankara on a solid foundation for the future.

US-Turkey Relations good: Terror/ prolif/ disease/ econ

Relations Solve terrorism, proliferation, disease, and the economy

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 6

[Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Elizabeth, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Alliance Relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations”, 6-15-06, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/TurkeyCSR.pdf]

The history of the U.S.-Turkish partnership provides an auspicious backdrop for rebuilding the relationship. However, it cannot alone provide the necessary momentum for progress, nor can it create a stake in enduring ties for a new generation—a generation that has not been shaped by the strategic imperatives of the Cold War. The challenge faced by leaders in both Washington and Ankara is to recognize the potential future value of the partnership and to take concrete actions to realize that value. The two countries share long-term interests in Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. They each face global threats that defy borders such as terrorism, proliferation, and pandemic disease, which neither can address effectively on its own. They also have a stake in the vitality of each other’s economy and in developing more robust commercial ties. They must take deliberate steps to establish processes that allow them to manage the issues that have created a growing chasm between them and to build new opportunities for cooperation. If these efforts are successful, they will generate momentum for a renewed, revitalized relationship that allows both to more effectively meet the challenges of the twenty-first century.

US-Turkey relations good: Turkey Prolif

Relations solves turkey prolif

Larrabee 10 (Stephen, Ph.D. in political science and international affairs, Senior Staff member and Corporate Chair in European Security at RAND. He served on the U.S. National Security Council staff in the White House as a specialist on Soviet-East European affairs and East-West political-military relations. “Turkey's New Geopolitics”, Survival, 52: 2, 3/25, p. 165, http://www.rand.org/about/people/l/larrabee_f_stephen.html, NJ)

If such efforts were to fail, however, and Iran did proceed to acquire nuclear weapons, this could spark a highly destabilising nuclear arms race in the Middle East. To date, Turkey has shown little interest in developing its own nuclear deterrent, and is not likely to do so as long as the US nuclear guarantee and NATO remain credible. If relations with Washington and NATO seriously deteriorate, however, Ankara might be prompted to consider acquiring a nuclear deterrent of its own. This underscores the importance of maintaining strong and credible security ties between Turkey and NATO.

[INSERT TURKEY PROLIF BAD]

US-Turkey Rels good: Terrorism/ democracy/ ME stability

US-Turkey alliance solves terrorism, democracy, and Middle East stability.

Gordon and Taspinar ‘6 (Philip Gordon, Ph.D. and M.A. in European Studies and International Economics, senior fellow in foreign policy studies and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, Former Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council and Former Senior Fellow for U.S. Strategic Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Omer Taspinar, Ph.D. and M.A. in European Studies and International Economics, research fellow and director of the Turkey program at Brookings, “Turkey on the Brink”, The Washington Quarterly, The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Summer 2006, 29:3, pp.66-67)
The most troubling aspect of Turkey’s relations with the West is that Ankara no longer has a fallback U.S. option in case its relations with the EU sour. Turkish-U.S. relations have become a casualty of the war in Iraq. U.S. anger over the Turkish parliament’s March 1, 2003, refusal to allow U.S. forces access to Turkish territory for the invasion and Turkish frustration over U.S. support for Iraqi Kurds have led to unprecedented mutual resentment between Ankara and Washington. Numerous opinion polls confirm that growing numbers of Turks perceive their NATO ally as a security problem rather than a strategic partner. A 2005 BBC poll, for example, found that 82 percent of Turks considered U.S. policies in the Middle East as a threat to peace and security.5 In analyzing Turkey’s frustration with the United States, one needs to go beyond the Bush administration’s negative global image. The German Marshall Fund’s May 2005 transatlantic survey, for example, showed that although anti-Americanism is in relative decline in Europe, the trend in Turkey is in the opposite direction.6 The stakes involved in “losing Turkey” could scarcely be higher. Turkey’s relations with the EU have recently gained an unprecedented “civilizational” dimension. In recent years, jihadist terrorism in the United States and western Europe turned an otherwise unlikely scenario of a clash of civilizations between Islam and the West into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Today, growing numbers of Muslims see the U.S.-led war against terrorism as a global “crusade” against Islam. Similarly, Western attitudes toward Muslims are increasingly characterized by the fear of terrorism. In this polarized global context, a large Muslim country seeking membership in a prestigious European club with a majority Christian population has gained tremendous relevance. Turkey’s democratic, secular, Muslim, and pro- Western credentials would make it an important country under any circumstances. For those interested in proving the fallacy of an inevitable clash between Islam and the West, Turkey’s membership in the EU becomes all the more significant. The staunchly secularist Turkish Republic is, of course, an exception in the Islamic world, and one would normally not expect Turkey to become a symbol or model of compatibility between Islamic tradition and Western democracy.7 Yet, Turkey’s current experiment with moderate Islam is a promising exercise in political moderation and democratic maturity. With the right policies, Turkey could become an inspiring example for Islamists and secularists interested in peaceful coexistence. The Arab world is paying increasing attention to this Turkish experiment and the European reaction to it. The fact that a pro-Islamic party is taking Turkey closer to EU membership challenges preconceived notions both in the West and the Islamic world. In addition to these cultural dynamics, a quick look at the map clearly illustrates the geostrategic stakes involved in keeping Turkey on a European track. It is not only the most advanced democracy in the Islamic world, but it also shares its southern borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. In the Caucasus, Turkey borders Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia and thereby serves as an energy corridor through which the vast oil and gas reserves of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea pass to the West. Ultimately, a stable, Western-oriented, liberal Turkey on a clear path toward EU membership would serve as a growing market for Western goods, a much needed contributor to European labor forces, a democratic example for the rest of the Muslim world, a stabilizing influence on Iraq, a valuable actor in Afghanistan (where Turkey has already led the International Security and Assistance Force twice), and a critical ally for the United States in the war on terrorism. A resentful, unstable, nationalist Turkey would be the opposite in every case.

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