Review of current activities

1 Is the survey a panel? O O

2 Is the survey obligatory? O O

3 What is the sample size of the survey?

4 What is the average response rate of the survey?

5 What survey format do you use?

Interview O

CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interview) O

CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) O

Mailed/Emailed Questionnaire O

Web Questionnaire O

6. 
   What is the total cost of the survey in Euros? Unknown as yet
   

7 Describe the main purpose of the collection:

All homes bought, sold or rented require an EPC. They give information on how to make your home more energy efficient and reduce your energy costs. From an admin data viewpoint, it provides an excellent ongoing source of property level data on characteristics of the property and energy efficiency measures as well as modelled energy consumption.

8 What is the frequency of the data collection? To be determined

9 Since when is such data collected? Data not yet used in main analysis – but EPC’s have existed since 2008.

10 When is the next data collection planned for? Aim is to get access to EPC’s that already exist and then collect information routinely as part of Green Deal process

11 Name of the service responsible for the data collection

Department for Communities and Local Government

12 Who are the respondents of this survey?

Energy suppliers ● Importers O Traders ● Households ●

13 For which regional level (NUTS level) are the data significant? NUTS4 and below

Yes No Partly

14 Type of information collected

a) Housing Stock characteristics

Type of dwelling ● O O

Age of the building ● O O

Insulation (roof, wall, window) ● O

Heated floor area of the dwelling ● O O

b) Household characteristics

Number of households O ●

Size (number of persons per household) O ● O

Income O ● O

3. 
   Energy Consumption / expenditure by energy commodity type
   

Quantities of energy commodities used by type O O ●

Expenditure of energy commodities by type O ● O

(If any of the answers is "yes" or "partly" please specify commodity types)

Will specify fuel types used for primary heating

3. 
   Fuel types used for
   

Hot Water O ● O

Cooking O ● O

(If any of the answers is "yes" or "partly" please specify)

3. 
   Space heating system
   

Age of heating system O ●

3. 
   Availability of electrical appliances
   

(If the answer is "yes" please specify types)

3. 
   Penetration of renewable energy sources
   

Photovoltaic (power) ● O O

Heat pumps (type, power, electricity consumption) ● O O

Wood (quantity) ● O O

(If any of the answers is "yes" or "partly" please specify)

3. 
   Penetration of energy efficiency technologies O ● O
   such as high efficiency lamps, appliances, etc.
   

i) Please specify any other relevant statistics that are collected

and are not mentioned above:

15 Do you validate the data with external/additional information? O ● O

16 Do you apply automated plausibility checks? O ● O

17 Do you use these data for compiling national energy balances? O ● O

18 Do you publish the survey results separately? O ●

If "yes" how do you publish (internet, brochure, CD….) and
when did you publish the most recent figures? As discussed, still ongoing decisions

19 Do you publish a Report of Methods? O ● O

1. 
   The modelling process is a bottom-up estimation of the total fuel consumption in households (by fuel type and end-use). Specify the fuel(s) and end-uses (space heating / cooling, hot water, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances) modelled. Indicate any other relevant statistics (see recommended coverage in part A, point 4) which are part of the modelling output process.
   
2. 
   The modelling process aims at providing disaggregated statistics by end-use, i.e. the breakdown of fuel consumption for space heating, space cooling, water heating, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances.
   
3. 
   The modelling process aims at the disaggregation of electricity consumption in households by type of appliance (oven, fridge, compact fluorescent lamps, etc.)
   

BREDEM is a model of the energy use of individual dwellings, which calculates annual energy required for:

– space heating

– water heating

– cooking,

– lighting and electrical appliances

Please describe how the results are used to inform / monitor /evaluate national policy. Describe the way the model outputs are published (internet, brochure, CD….), their frequency and timeliness. Give links of most recent results.

Work on BREDEM is undertaken as a part of the work on SAP (Standard Assessment Procedure, a method for measuring the energy rating of residential dwellings), which is used for showing compliance with Building Regulations and producing Energy Performance Certificates. BREDEM outputs are also used in modelling fuel bills for fuel poverty measurement.

Please give an estimate of the amount spent on:

• 
  setting up the modelling system (if done recently)
  
• 
  annual cost of purchasing data to populate model or additional cost of carrying out surveys where the outputs are essential input for the modelling work
  
• 
  annual cost of model maintenance/development (staff, IT, etc.)
  
• 
  annual cost of reporting model results
  

Work on BREDEM is undertaken as a part of the work on SAP. SAP costs around €413k per year typically. Almost all of this is on maintenance/development. In addition there are occasional purchases of data but these are relatively small. DECC contributes 50k per year for BREDEM modelling and the output data.

Market Transformation Programme data (see below)

Housing and Construction Statistics - annual

Family Expenditure Survey - annual

1. 
   The modelling process is a bottom-up estimation of the total fuel consumption in households (by fuel type and end-use). Specify the fuel(s) and end-uses (space heating / cooling, hot water, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances) modelled. Indicate any other relevant statistics (see recommended coverage in part A, point 4) which are part of the modelling output process.
   
2. 
   The modelling process aims at providing disaggregated statistics by end-use, i.e. the breakdown of fuel consumption for space heating, space cooling, water heating, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances.
   
3. 
   The modelling process aims at the disaggregation of electricity consumption in households by type of appliance (oven, fridge, compact fluorescent lamps, etc.)
   

BREHOMES takes a bottom-up approach. For different categories of dwelling it estimates:

- Heat losses

- Floor areas

- Energy use by end use (space heating, water heating, cooking, lighting and appliances)

- Energy use by fuel (electricity, gas, oil, solid fuel)

The trend data is also used to check the consistency of the data.

Please describe how the results are used to inform / monitor /evaluate national policy. Describe the way the model outputs are published (internet, brochure, CD….), their frequency and timeliness. Give links of most recent results.

Published in the annual Domestic Energy Factfile http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/energy_stats/en_effic_stats/dom_fact/dom_fact.aspx

They are also used in the compilation of the Energy Consumption in the UK tables http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/ecuk/ecuk.aspx which are published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change

Please give an estimate of the amount spent on:

• 
  setting up the modelling system (if done recently)
  
• 
  annual cost of purchasing data to populate model or additional cost of carrying out surveys where the outputs are essential input for the modelling work
  
• 
  annual cost of model maintenance/development (staff, IT, etc.)
  
• 
  annual cost of reporting model results
  

Very hard to separate out costs but around 400K a year including setting up the modelling system and reporting results. However this has changed as of 2010 to a new contract with Cambridge Architectural Research

1    Source data:

Give an overview of the key data sets that populate the model (surveys, administrative sources, other models). For the various sources, indicate the frequency of the data collection, an estimate of the robustness of the input data, and what other uses are made of the source data.

English Housing Survey - annual, the most robust data available on households, various other uses (fuel poverty, SAP energy efficiency estimates, Building Regulations, planning)

DCLG dwelling stock data - variable frequency (say 1 to 5 years), robust, used for planning and house building policy

DECC fuel price data - annual, robust, used by Ofgem and DECC for policy

Met Office weather data - annual, robust, used for weather adjustments to energy statistics.

2    Modelling objective:

Specify the objective of the modelling process, in particular whether:

a)      The modelling process is a bottom-up estimation of the total fuel consumption in households (by fuel type and end-use). Specify the fuel(s) and end-uses (space heating / cooling, hot water, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances) modelled. Indicate any other relevant statistics (see recommended coverage in part A, point 4) which are part of the modelling output process.

Yes, it's a bottom-up model estimating energy use broken down by final use - all the end-uses cited are included.

Calibrated using DUKES and sub-national energy statistics

Also comparisons with National Energy Efficiency Data framework

b)      The modelling process aims at providing disaggregated statistics by end-use, i.e. the breakdown of fuel consumption for space   heating, space cooling, water heating, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances.

Yes – produces disaggregated stats by end use

c)      The modelling process aims at the disaggregation of electricity consumption in households by type of appliance (oven, fridge, compact fluorescent lamps, etc.)

No - it distinguishes between cooking, lighting and other appliances, but no further breakdown is currently possible

3   Modelling methodology

Please, provide a description of the modelling methodology (including a web-link to published methodological papers). Indicate any external (independent) and internal reviews and their frequencies. Indicate frequency of modelling updates to take account of new technology (i.e. more energy efficient appliances) and new sources of data. 

The primary source of input data for the CHM is the English Housing Survey (EHS). In the 2009 dataset the EHS provided data on 16,150 representative English dwellings (cases). Each of these cases represents a quantity of dwellings in England - that is a weighting, such that their sum is equal to the total number of dwellings in England (22.3 million in 2009). The CHM reads in the EHS dwelling for each case and performs building physics calculations to determine energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions, by use and by fuel type. Multiplying the energy use and CO2 emissions by the associated weighting and summing across all cases gives total values for England. Using appropriate England–to–GB and GB-to-UK scaling factors based on the number of dwellings in England, GB and the UK, the approximate GB and UK energy use and CO2 emission totals can be calculated. The CHM has now been updated to include data from the Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS), leading to a more accurate picture of GB homes. The 2008 SHCS provides data on just

The model is built in Microsoft Excel. Calculations are principally performed directly within

The model is described in detail in the User Guide, available here:

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/energy_stats/en_effic_stats/dom_fact/dom_fact.aspx

CAR are continually updating and improving the model as improved data becomes available.

The model has been reviewed by the research community (notably UCL and Loughborough University) and by policy-makers. It was published in early 2011 and is freely available. Our Steering Group meets approximately every six months.
4   Reconciliation with other data

Please, provide an assessment of the accuracy of the modelling process of the overall consumption in the bottom-up approach (case "a" above). Indicate how bottom-up estimates are reconciled with aggregated energy balance data (supply side). What other independent variables are used in the reconciliation process.

Work is currently being done to reduce or describe the uncertainty in the modelling process, CAR have completed extensive Monte Carlo analysis examining the range of model outputs when varying input parameters and assumptions. CAR reconcile outputs against DUKES total energy figures, and DECC's sub-national energy statistics.

CAR’s work so far suggests they are within 10% of actual energy consumption for space and water heating, and within 3% of actual electricity consumption.

Provide as assessment of the accuracy in the case of the disaggregation of total fuel consumption into the various end-uses (case "b" above).  What other sources of data are there to validate this element of the modelling against? 

CAR have not yet completed uncertainty work on the breakdowns by final use, and there is little or no other data available to validate these breakdowns against. CAR estimate they are within 10% of the actual space heating energy use, within 5% of the water heating, and around 3% for appliances, cooking and lighting.

5   Uses of the model outputs

Please describe how the results are used to inform / monitor /evaluate national policy. Describe the way the model outputs are published (internet, brochure, CD….), their frequency and timeliness. Give links of most recent results.

Results have been used to answer questions about the Green Deal - especially the potential for upgrading homes, and the improvements in energy efficiency that would result from upgrades.

Statistics are produced for Energy Consumption in the UK (ECUK) annually, and the Housing Energy Fact File is published annually.

6   Cost

Please give an estimate of the amount spent on:

-       setting up the modelling system (if done recently)

£200,000 (all figures are approximate)

-       annual cost of purchasing data to populate model or additional cost of carrying out surveys where the outputs are essential input for the modelling work

No purchase costs, but considerable time involved in obtaining, cleaning and preparing data for the model - £20,000

-       annual cost of model maintenance/development (staff, IT, etc.)

£80,000

£60,000

Please give the name of the service responsible for maintaining and operating the modelling process. Indicate whether it is produced externally under contract.

Cambridge Architectural Research - externally under contract

6. For each modelling process identified in Part 5 please describe:
Model Name:…Market Transformation Programme…….

1 Source data:
Give an overview of the key data sets that populate the model (surveys, administrative sources, other models). For the various sources, indicate the frequency of the data collection, an estimate of the robustness of the input data, and what other uses are made of the source data.
The programme collects data on sales, stock and lifespans of over 40 different categories of energy-using products. These categories fall under the following broad headings: air conditioning, commercial lighting, commercial refrigeration, office equipment, cold appliances, cooking appliances, domestic lighting, domestic ICT, consumer electronics, heating, and water-using appliances.
2 Modelling objective:
Specify the objective of the modelling process, in particular whether:

1. 
   The modelling process is a bottom-up estimation of the total fuel consumption in households (by fuel type and end-use). Specify the fuel(s) and end-uses (space heating / cooling, hot water, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances) modelled. Indicate any other relevant statistics (see recommended coverage in part A, point 4) which are part of the modelling output process.
   
2. 
   The modelling process aims at providing disaggregated statistics by end-use, i.e. the breakdown of fuel consumption for space heating, space cooling, water heating, cooking, lighting and electrical appliances.
   
3. 
   The modelling process aims at the disaggregation of electricity consumption in households by type of appliance (oven, fridge, compact fluorescent lamps, etc.)
   

The modelling process looks to disaggregate electricity consumption by type of appliance to enable analysis of different future scenarios as a result of changes in ownership patterns

Please describe how the results are used to inform / monitor /evaluate national policy. Describe the way the model outputs are published (internet, brochure, CD….), their frequency and timeliness. Give links of most recent results.

The results are used to inform and monitor the work of the Market Transformation Programme. The Market Transformation Programme supports UK Government policy on sustainable products. Its aim is to achieve sustainable improvements in the resource efficiency of products, systems and services where these are critical to the delivery of Government commitments in areas including climate change, water efficiency and waste reduction.
6 Cost

Please give an estimate of the amount spent on:

• 
  setting up the modelling system (if done recently)
  
• 
  annual cost of purchasing data to populate model or additional cost of carrying out surveys where the outputs are essential input for the modelling work
  
• 
  annual cost of model maintenance/development (staff, IT, etc.)
  
• 
  annual cost of reporting model results
  

Unknown
7 Service responsible for the modelling