Risk Assessment Oil and Gas
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| 6. FUTURE USES AND USERS There are many areas of oil exploration and development in the arctic and subarctic besides the Priobskoye region highlighted in this study. The risk assessment methodology presented in section 3 is applicable to other regions, but the specific risks and GIS layers needed to support risk assessment may be different. For instance, the Yamal peninsula in Russia is an oil exploration region. Yamal is in the continuous permafrost zone, as opposed to the subarctic permafrost-free Priobskoye study region. Oil field development in Yamal’s ice-rich permafrost conditions requires insulated pads and pipeline support structures to maintain low surface temperature because the melting of ice-rich permafrost causes severe engineering problems and leaves permanent scars on the treeless tundra. Timan-Pechora is another area of significant petroleum activity in the Russian Arctic. Like Yamal it is remote and requires special care and procedures to produce oil in an environmentally sensitive manner. Yamal’s and Timan-Pechora’s remoteness accentuate the advantage of remotely sensed data, both civilian satellite and NSS. In the North American arctic, the McKenzie Delta area, east of Alaska’s North Slope, has demonstrated petroleum potential and represents a unique environment where extreme conditions dictate special technologies and procedures for all phases of exploration and development. On the Alaskan North Slope itself, the proposed exploration for oil in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge (east of the Prudhoe Bay oil field) is ecologically risky because it may disrupt the primary food source of the indigenous people, similar to the Priobskoye situation. However, in Alaska the primary food source of the Gwich’in Indians is the herds of caribou rather than fish. The caribou are migratory. In the spring the females come down from the mountains to calve on the coastal plain—the part of the Arctic Refuge where the oil deposit is believed to be. The proposed oil field exploration and production, particularly the pipeline, is expected to disturb the caribou and lessen herd production. Use of satellite data could be of great benefit in this instance. It could be possible, depending upon the database of images available, to track the herd’s migration patterns over the past several years. This would be extremely important in determining important feeding, overwintering, and breeding grounds. The cost savings, compared to yearlong field studies with radio tracking, could be enormous. The use of satellite data would also help in production of a GIS with improved information on elevation, permafrost, exisiting structures, vegetation types, etc. The GIS could be used for early geological testing layouts, as well as laying out the location of roads, pipelines, pumping stations, facilities, etc. An extremely important use of NSS and civilian satellite data in future oil and gas development risk assessments is for retrospective analysis. The NSS images may provide 93 information on what the terrain was like over the past decades (baseline information), and in so doing provide important information on mitigation issues. In cases of past oil spills that have not been cleaned up, the images could provide important information on how fast and well the environment can (or if it can) repair itself. NSS and civilian satellite data would also show how quickly disturbed areas can revegetate after a disturbance such as clearing for road construction. Because of the slower growth rate of vegetation in cold areas, these areas will have a much slower rate of natural restoration than will areas in warmer regions with sufficient moisture. These are all important issues to understand when determining the level of restoration that will be needed in the event of a spill, or upon decommissioning of facilities. Probably the most important aspect for future use of satellite data is in preparing maps and GIS databases with ever-greater detail. With improved data and the growing ability of modeling we will be able to better predict the impact of exploration, construction, operation, and restoration activities on the environment. Within the near future, it will be relatively easy to model oil and gas movement between ground, air, and water and thereby predict the impacts on the local wildlife, vegetation, and air, water, and soil quality. We are using the NSS for the first time on environmental issues. As our modeling abilities improve with regard to predicting transport through different media and ecosystem types, we will make great strides in improving risk assessment. The specific groups and organizations that may benefit from the results of this and future studies include oil companies, government regulatory agencies, local officials, and other GCC groups. Oil companies are interested in lowering costs while maintaining environmentally safe development activities. The remote sensing methods described here translate into economic benefits, especially for remote and inaccessible regions. In addition to risk assessments, oil companies are especially interested in obtaining higher resolution (5 meter or better) terrain elevation data necessary for engineering studies and interpretation of seismic and other remotely sensed data. They also see utility in archived NSS data for documentation of predevelopment oil field conditions. As discussed in the previous section, government agencies are interested in regulatory reform, including baseline evaluation and monitoring at lower cost. Local officials can use these data and methods in planning for emergency response to oil spills. And because GIS databases hold information at multiple scales, local officials can view local conditions in context with the regional overview. Finally, this project is a roadmap for other groups within the GCC to work cooperatively utilizing each country’s unique NSS capabilities. |