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Basic Political Developments

RIA: Russia, U.S. to discuss prevention of incidents at sea

A U.S. Navy delegation will visit Russia on December 10-12 to discuss the prevention of incidents at sea and future bilateral cooperation, a Russian Navy spokesman said.

During a series of meetings between the visiting group of U.S. naval officials and Russia's top Navy commanders the sides "will discuss the implementation of the Agreement on the prevention of incidents at sea and the future cooperation between the Russian and the U.S. navies," the spokesman told RIA Novosti.

The Russian-U.S. Agreement on the prevention of incidents at sea was signed on 25 May 1972 in Moscow by the Secretary of the Navy for the United States and the Commander in Chief of the Soviet Navy for the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

In May 1973, during the first annual review, a protocol to the agreement was negotiated which extends certain provisions of the agreement to include non-military ships.

It was established to increase communication of military activities, thereby preventing miscalculations and avoiding armed conflicts that might arise from a misinterpretation of one side's intentions as hostile.

The agreement is extended automatically every three years.

In addition, Russia has long proposed to develop a draft international agreement on the prevention of incidents underwater to ease tensions over activities of nuclear submarines in neutral waters.

The proposal stipulates that countries which possess submarine fleets should warn other countries about the activities of their submarines in specific areas during patrol or training missions to avoid underwater collisions with submarines of other navies.

A recent collision between a British and a French nuclear sub has added urgency to the work on such an agreement.

The Royal Navy's HMS Vanguard and the French Navy's Triomphant collided in the Atlantic Ocean on the night between February 3-4, 2009.

HMS Vanguard was on a routine patrol in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean with a crew of 135, and was armed with a maximum of 16 Trident 2 D5 ballistic missiles carrying up to 48 warheads in total. Triomphant was returning from a tour of duty when the incident occurred; it was carrying a crew of 111, and was equipped with 16 M45 ballistic missiles with up to 48 warheads in total.

Both vessels sustained damage, but no injuries or radiation leaks were reported.

Although the U.S. opposes the signing of an agreement which could impose a certain degree of control over its large fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, Washington has to respond to the increased activity of the Russian submarines in the Arctic and near the U.S. coast.

In July, the United States was unable to detect the presence of Russian strategic submarines in the Arctic before they test-launched two ballistic missiles.

In August, two Russian attack submarines were spotted in international waters off the U.S. coast.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated in November that Russia planned to build up a constant presence throughout the world's oceans.

So far, nuclear-powered strategic and attack submarines remain the core of Russia's ocean-faring fleet.

MOSCOW, December 10 (RIA Novosti)

AP: Russian FM: US, Russia close to reaching arms deal

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gEKQ943GssaqHeZz2h__Syvt6c3gD9CG5KDO0

(AP) – 6 hours ago

MOSCOW — Russia and the United States will sign a new nuclear arms deal shortly, the Russian foreign ministry said Wednesday.

Sergey Lavrov sounded upbeat Wednesday when asked about the prospects for a quick successor deal to the 1991 START I treaty that expired Friday.

Asked by a reporter whether the agreement could be signed by President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the sidelines of the international climate summit in Copenhagen, Lavrov said: "The treaty will be signed soon."

He wouldn't elaborate.

Obama is set to attend the meeting in Copenhagen on Dec. 18, and Medvedev also could go.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Wednesday that negotiators continue to work to replace the expired treaty. But Gibbs said no ceremony has been scheduled to sign a new treaty.

The START I obliged each country to cut nuclear warheads by at least a quarter, to about 6,000 and included detailed verification procedures. Obama and Medvedev agreed at a summit in July to each cut nuclear warheads to between 1,500 and 1,675 within seven years as part of a new treaty.

In Washington, Daryl Kimball, executive director of the private Arms Control Association, and Linton Brooks, arms control negotiator for the Bush administration, also were optimistic an agreement could be reached soon.

Brooks said the negotiators were concentrating now on verification procedures, or ways to ensure the terms of the treaty would be followed. He said he anticipated the new treaty would go to the Senate for ratification in February.

"There will be a lot of rhetoric, but I will be extremely surprised if the treaty isn't ratified," he said at a seminar held by the Arms Control Association.

(This version CORRECTS the name of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.)

Itar-Tass: US, RF generally coordinate doc to replace START-1 -Dept of State

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=14624623&PageNum=0

10.12.2009, 02.40

WASHINGTON, December 10 (Itar-Tass) - The United States and Russia have coordinated the main part of the text of a new agreement that is to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1), spokesman for the US Department of State Ian Kelly said on Wednesday.

He noted that a considerable part of the text has been coordinated already, but the sides still have certain final questions that are to be settled. However, he did not specify any timeframe. He said he could not forecast when this will happen. However, it is important for the parties not to agree by a certain date, but to work out a good agreement.

The US State Department spokesman noted that the US negotiators have been very seriously working towards reaching an agreement and they still have the aim to complete the work by the end of this year. The US side’s priority is still getting a good agreement that would correspond to the American national interests. The US wants to have more predictability and stability in the relations with the RF in the nuclear sphere, it also counts on the clauses in the document that would guarantee an efficient verification process, Kelly said.

START is a bilateral treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The treaty was signed on 31 July 1991 and entered into force on 5 December 1994. The treaty was signed by the United States and the USSR, that barred its signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads atop a total of 1,600 ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. START negotiated the largest and most complex arms control treaty in history, and its final implementation in late 2001 resulted in the removal of about 80 percent of all strategic nuclear weapons then in existence. Proposed by United States President Ronald Reagan, it was renamed START I after negotiations began on the second START treaty, which became START II.

The treaty was set to expire on 5 December 2009, but currently remains in force indefinitely pending agreement on a successor, since Russia and the United States failed to reach agreement on a new pact until the deadline.

The first START proposal was presented by United States President Ronald Reagan in Geneva on 29 June 1982. Reagan proposed a dramatic reduction in strategic forces in two phases, which he referred to as SALT III at the time. The first phase would reduce overall warhead counts on any missile type to 5,000, with an additional limit of 2,500 on ICBMs. Additionally, a total of 850 ICBMs would be allowed, with a limit of 110 “heavy throw” missiles like the SS-18, with additional limits on the total “throw weight” of the missiles as well. The second phase introduced similar limits on heavy bombers and their warheads, and other strategic systems as well.

At the time the US had a commanding lead in strategic bombers. The US B-52 force, while aged, was a credible strategic threat but was only equipped with AGM-86 cruise missiles, beginning in 1982, because of Soviet air defence improvements in early 1980s. The US also had begun to introduce new B-1B Lancer quasi-stealth bomber and was secretly developing the Advanced Technology Bomber (ATB) project that would eventually result in the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. The USSR's force was of little threat to the US, on the other hand, as it was tasked almost entirely with attacking US convoys in the Atlantic and land targets on the Eurasian landmass. Although the USSR had 1,200 medium and heavy bombers, only 150 of them (Tupolev Tu-95s and Myasishchev M-4s) could reach North America (the latter only with in-flight refuelling). They also faced difficult problems in penetrating admittedly smaller and poorly defended US airspace. Possessing too few bombers available when compared to US bomber numbers was evened out by the US forces having to penetrate the much larger and heavier defended Soviet airspace. This changed when new Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers appeared in 1984 equipped with first Soviet AS-15 cruise missiles. By limiting the phase-in as it was proposed, the US would be left with a strategic advantage, for a time.

With the current START-I set expired on December 5, 2009, there are proposals to renew and expand the treaty, supported by US President Barack Obama.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, said, the day after the US elections, in his first state of the nation address, that Russia would move to deploy short-range Iskander missile systems in the western exclave of Kaliningrad “to neutralize if necessary the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe.” Russia insists that any movement towards a new START should be a legally binding document, and must, then, set lower ceilings on the number of nuclear warheads, and their delivery vehicles.

On March 17, 2009, Medvedev signalled that Russia would begin a “large- scale” rearmament and renewal of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. President Medvedev accused NATO of pushing ahead with expansion near Russian borders and ordered that this rearmament commence in 2011 with increased army, naval, and nuclear capabilities.

Georgia remains the key issue of disagreement between Russia and the United States - Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasian affairs has said at the International Relations` Council, while the participants were discussing the U.S. relations with European countries.