Russia 110712 Basic Political Developments
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- Phosagro narrows range for London IPO – sources
- Rosinter ups H1 sales revenues 9.1% TO 4.8 bln rubles
- TMK boosts pipe shipments 16% in H1 to 2.2 mln tones
- MMK Has 2nd Turkish Plant
Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussionsRosinter Restaurants, Sberbank, Rosneft: Russian Equity Previewhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/rosinter-restaurants-sberbank-rosneft-russian-equity-preview.html Q By Marina Sysoyeva - Jul 11, 2011 10:03 PM GMT+0200 The following companies may be active in Russian trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and share prices are from the previous close of trading. The 30-stock Micex Index fell 1.3 percent to 1,701.48. The dollar-denominated RTS Index dropped 2 percent to 1,919.08. OAO Rosinter Restaurants (ROST RX): Rosinter Restaurants is scheduled to issue its June trading update. The restaurants chain rose 0.8 percent to 370 rubles in Moscow. OAO Sberbank (SBER03 RX): OAO Sberbank plans to invest as much as $800 million to create a megacenter for data processing at the Skolkovo innovation center, RIA Novosti said yesterday, citing German Gref, chief executive officer of the Moscow-based lender. Russia’s state bank slid 2.7 percent to 102.41. OAO Rosneft (ROSN RX): Russia’s Finance Ministry is scheduled to give initial oil price estimates used to calculate export duties for August. Russia’s state oil producer dropped 1.6 percent to 235.51 rubles. To contact the reporter on this story: Marina Sysoyeva in Moscow msysoyeva@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net Phosagro narrows range for London IPO – sourceshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/phosagro-ipo-range-idUSWLB767720110712 2:30am EDT MOSCOW, July 12 (Reuters) - Russian fertiliser group Phosagro has narrowed the range for its planned initial public offering and is on track to float at the mid-point of its forecast valuation, two financial market sources told Reuters. The company, scheduled to begin trading on the London stock exchange on Wednesday, narrowed the price range for shares to $13.75-$15.75 from an earlier $13.00-$16.50. The mid-point of both ranges is $14.75, valuing the group at around $6 billion. Phosagro hopes to raise at least $500 million from the sale of a 10-15 percent stake. (Reporting by Olga Popova, Writing by John Bowker, Editing by Maria Kiselyova) July 12, 2011 10:07
MOSCOW. July 12 (Interfax) - OJSC Rosinter Restaurants Holding (RTS: ROST), one of the leading family-eatery chains in Russia, saw net consolidated sales revenues rise 9.1% to 4.847 billion rubles in the first half, a company press release says. June earnings totaled 819 million rubles, a 7.9% increase from 759 million rubles in June of last year. Cf (Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru) Aeroflot CEO supports privatization http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16131 Renaissance Capital
Event: In a Reuters interview yesterday (11 July), Aeroflot CEO Vitaly Saveliev said that he supports the privatisation of the airline, as previously proposed by the government. In his view, the process should begin in 2014 with the sale of 25% of the state-owned 51.7% stake. Saveliev confirmed that the company plans to consolidate the Rosavia assets by YE11, with the number of passengers carried by the joint company 50% greater than in FY10, at about 20mn people in 2011. He estimated that Aeroflot's organic passenger capacity growth, excluding subsidiaries, would be 28-30% in 2011. Aeroflot will deconsolidate its terminal debt (approximately $900mn) by YE11, resulting in a reduction in its net debt/EBITDA ratio from 2.0x currently, even after Rosavia's debt is included. Action: Neutral for Aeroflot in the short term, in our view. Rationale: We are positive about a gradual privatisation of Aeroflot. Management expects to fully demonstrate the synergies of the Rosavia merger by 2014. We do not believe privatisation will lead to a loss of preference from the state. At the same time, reducing the state's control will allow management to pursue more flexible policies, eliminating the need to fulfil social obligations (such as loss-making flights to the Far East) and provide financial support to the industry. In the short term, we do not expect this news to affect the share price, as officials have often brought up the topic of privatisation over the past year. Dmitry Kontorshchikov July 12, 2011 11:57 TMK boosts pipe shipments 16% in H1 to 2.2 mln toneshttp://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=258547 MOSCOW. July 11 (Interfax) - Russia's TMK (RTS: TRMK), one of the world's top-three oil and gas industry pipe producers, boosted pipe shipments 16% year-on-year in H1 2011 to 2.2 million tonnes, the company said. Shipments rose 1% in Q2 2011 to 1.09 million tonnes. The company affirmed its forecasts that earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and the EBITDA margin would not differ much in Q2 2011 from the $293 million and 18% seen in Q1 2011. Pr (Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru) MMK Has 2nd Turkish Planthttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mmk-has-2nd-turkish-plant/440385.html 12 July 2011 Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel's Turkish venture MMK-Atakas Sirketler Grubu will open a galvanizing and coating plant in Dilovasi, northwestern Turkey, on July 15, aiming for more than 800,000 tons of annual output and $750 million of sales, according to a statement Monday. Magnitogorsk, owned by Viktor Rashnikov, opened a $2.1 billion steel plant in Iskenderun in southern Turkey with local partner Atakas in March. It expects to sell $2.5 billion of hot-rolled coils next year from the Iskenderun plant, Cem Ustun, sales manager for MMK-Atakas, said May 10.
http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16131 UralSib
Prime Minister to launch Mill 2000 at MMK on Friday. On Friday (15 July), MMK (MMK LI - Buy) will commission its new cold-rolling Mill 2000 with a capacity of 2 mln ton, which could supply steel products to foreign automakers (this weekend Russia will celebrate Metallurgist Day). According to media, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will visit Magni- togorsk Steel Plant this Friday and launch the project. Mill 2000 is a stra- tegic project for MMK, which will continue the development of its high value-added product chain and will boost MMK's margins. Mill-2000 may add around $500-600 mln EBITDA to MMK in 2012-2013 and going forward. We believe the mill's launch could be a positive catalyst for the stock, which has recently underperformed the market and its sec- tor peers. As a trading idea, we recommend buying MMK shares ahead of Friday's event. Unique Mill 2000 Cold Rolled Steel Complex. Mill 2000 was the primary investment project for MMK, along with the steel plant (Atakash) in Turkey. Mill 2000 is designed to produce high-quality automotive cold-rolled steel for foreign carmakers, pro- ducing cars in Russia. The project is part of MMK's strategy to increase production of HVA products and substitute imports in the Russian markets, as currently, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota and others are importing cold-rolled automotive steel from European producers due to the low quality of Russian steel products (almost all HR and CR mills in Russia were built in 1970-80). We esti- mate that the EBITDA margin of Mill 2000 products will be around 30-35% versus an EBITDA margin of 20% for MMK in 1Q11. Trading idea - Buy MMK shares ahead of Friday's event. We note that in July 2009, Putin also visited Magnitogorsk on Met- allurgist Day and commissioned another of MMK's strategic projects, Mill-5000 (1.5 mln tons of thick-plate capacity, designed primarily to supply LD-pipe producers). The launch of Mill 5000 received extensive media coverage and boosted MMK's share price by 35% in July 2009 (stock outperformed all other peers - see price chart below). After stock underperforming in 1H11 (MMK share price is down23% since April 1), we believe the launch of Mill 2000 will be positively perceived by the market and the stock has fairly good chances for a rebound over the next 2-3 weeks. We therefore reiterate our Buy recommendation on the name. SUEK and Russian Railways may also develop Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16131 Renaissance Capital July 12, 2011 Event: Reuters last week published a list of companies granted access to the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit project in Mongolia. The tender was conducted for the western Tsankhi block, which holds 1.2bnt of coal reserves (65% coking coal) and which has an estimated 30-year production life of 15mn tpa. China Shenhua will obtain a 40% stake in the project. A consortium of companies, which includes Russian Railways (RZhD), SUEK and major Asian steel and mining companies, will control another 36%, while Peabody will get the remaining 24%. The second part of Tavan Tolgoi will be developed by the Mongolian company Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, which plans an IPO in 2H11. Action: The news is neutral for Russian coal names, in our view. Rationale: According to Reuters, the Mongolian parliament's approval on Tavan Tolgoi was expected before 11 July. We are not aware that the parliament granted approval before this date. The Mongolian government has previously stated plans to build a railroad to the Trans-Siberian Railway and only after that build a rail link to the Chinese border. The transportation shoulder from Tavan Tolgoi to Russian ports in the Far East is approximately 5,000 km in length, while China's nearest port Tianjin is 1,570 km away. Geopolitical considerations remain a top priority for the Mongolian government. RZhD was ready to offer special railway tariffs to compensate for the transportation disadvantage of supplying coal for the Russian border. We must wait for a final decision from the Mongolian government and official project capex/timing details before we can provide our estimates of Tavan Tolgoi's impact on the global coking coal supply-demand balance. Boris Krasnojenov
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