Russia 110720 Basic Political Developments

Putin's Plan

Is there an overarching strategy to the dizzying machinations of the Russian elite as election season approaches? Or are we just seeing the usual jockeying of Kremlin clans positioning themselves for the post-2012 situation?

"Interesting shifts are under way this election season," Goodrich writes. "While on the surface they may resemble political squabbles and instability, they actually represent the next step in the Russian leadership's consolidation of the state."

Goodrich argues that upon coming to power, Putin's first priorities were to restore the authority of the Russian state which had deteriorated during Boris Yeltsin's presidency.

Putin largely achieved this goal using authoritarian means during his eight years in the Kremlin, which gave him the confidence to turn the presidency over to Dmitry Medvedev -- while remaining in firm control of the country as prime minister.

Putin's next priority, which he is undertaking in tandem with Medvedev, is to modernize the country's economy and infrastructure. But this, Goodrich writes, requires some adjustments in policy:

With elections approaching, the ruling tandem seems even more at odds as Medvedev overturns many policies Putin put into place in the early 2000s, such as the ban on certain political parties, the ability of foreign firms to work in strategic sectors and the role of the FSB elite within the economy. Despite the apparent conflict, the changes are part of an overall strategy shared by Putin and Medvedev to finish consolidating Russian power.

These policy changes show that Putin and Medvedev feel confident enough that they have attained their first imperative that they can look to confront the second inherent problem for the country: Russia's lack of modern technology and lack of an economic base. Even with Russian energy production at its height, its energy technologies need revamping, as do every other sector, especially transit and telecommunication. Such a massive modernization attempt cannot be made without foreign help.

In order to achieve these goals, Putin and Medvedev not only need to improve Russia's investment climate and ease up the state's role in the economy (which explains Medvedev's moves to move siloviki like Igor Sechin out of the chairmanship of state corporations), they also need to create what Goodrich calls "the appearance of democracy."

Enter Mikhail Prokhorov and Right Cause:

Right Cause is intended to support foreign business and the modernization efforts. The party at first was designed to be led by Medvedev's economic aide, Arkady Dvorkovich, or Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin. However, the Kremlin thought that having a Kremlin member lead a new "independent" political party would defeat the purpose of showing a new democratic side to Russian's political sphere. Prokhorov has rarely shown political aspirations, but he has a working relationship with the Kremlin. He clearly received orders to help the Kremlin in this new display of democracy, and any oligarch who survives in Russia knows to follow the Kremlin's orders.

But the tandem (and the larger ruling elite) also wants to make sure the appearance of democracy doesn't turn into the real thing.

Enter the Popular Front:

On the surface, the Popular Front has attempted to remain vague to avoid revealing how such an organization supersedes political parties and factions. It creates a system in which power in the country does not lie in a political office ¬ such as the presidency or premiership ¬ but with the person overseeing the Popular Front: Putin.

And as I have been blogging for months, the mechanism to keep the current elite firmly in control with the appearance of a more democratic system is "managed pluralism":

Igor Yurgens , chairman of the Kremlin-connected Institute of Modern Development, recently said he expected Medvedev to remain president for a second term, adding that Putin would remain the country's most powerful figure.

"Vladimir Putin is a more powerful player. He will probably become a kind of father of the nation, allowing the president to promote the thoughts and ideas he regards as priorities," Yurgens told Interfax.

My only quibble with Goodrich's conclusions is that I don't think this is just about Putin. It is about keeping the inner sanctum of the current ruling elite, what Andrew Monaghan of the NATO Defense College calls "The Team" (and what I would call the Deep State -- but that is a subject for a future piece I am working on).

-- Brian Whitmore

A Lezginka dance department

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has suggested creating a separate governmental structure to work with ethnic communities. Today this work is being conducted by several ministries. The idea may involve establishing a separate department or a branch. Worsening inter-ethnic relations served as the reason for the proposal.

On Tuesday, representatives of community and religious organizations held a meeting with Putin at the All-Russia People’s Front headquarters. Having talked about the importance of resolving inter-ethnic problems in his opening statement, as well as the unique character of Russia, which is home to more than 180 different nationalities and ethnicities, “each of which has its own national territory,” the head of the Cabinet of Ministers expressed hope that the People’s Front’s headquarters will be used by the participants on an ongoing basis. After that, he announced the establishment of a relevant structure within the apparatus of his government.    

“You know that the government has an inter-departmental working group, which is headed by my deputy Dmitry Nikolayevich Kozak, and I think that in the immediate future, we will create a special structure within the government that will also deal with problems of this kind,” said the prime minister.  

The president of the National Cultural Autonomy of Germans in Russia, Heinrich Martens, complained to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers about the absence of a platform for dialogue.

The president of the National Cultural Autonomy of Gypsies in Russia, Nadezhda Demetr, was outraged that there is still not a single government body to which representatives of her ethnic community can turn. And the first vice president of the Association of Indigenous Ethnic Minorities of the North, Siberia and the Far East, Pavel Sulyandzig, stated that he is considered a persona non grata by the Ministry of Regional Development because, as they say, he “criticizes too much.”  

Today, interaction with ethnic associations is handled by several government agencies, Ildar Gilmutdinov, chairman of the National Cultural Autonomy of Russian Tatars, told Gazeta.Ru. 

For example, there is a separate department in the Ministry of Regional Development which mainly works with national autonomies. Issues concerning language preservation and schools with an ethnic or cultural component are handled by the Ministry of Education.

Within the government, issues concerning religious and ethnic affairs are handled by the Department of Culture, which includes a department that works with community and religious associations headed by Vladimir Ginensky.

According to Gilmutdinov, the department mainly handles organizational issues and employs only a few people, which is clearly not enough. A separate government structure is needed in order to simplify internal communication, he says.

“When it comes to making a joint decision between several agencies, in order to coordinate their actions so as to avoid running in circles, the government apparatus plays the central role,” he said.

How closely the prime minister’s proposal will be followed is still unclear.

According to Gazeta.Ru’s source, a separate department or a branch within some department could be established – or, if the decision to create a separate body is made, then an agency may be set up. The establishment of a nationalities ministry, which was discussed by some Caucasian leaders following a much-publicized conflict on Manezh Square, will certainly not be considered.  

Another government source says that the idea applies only to the creation of a structure within the government.
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July 19, 2011 10:05 pm