Russia 110811 Basic Political Developments
Riding the crude roller coaster
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Riding the crude roller coasterhttp://rt.com/business/news/russia-oil-price-gazprombank/ Published: 11 August, 2011, 11:11 Edited: 11 August, 2011, 11:11 With crude price first plummeting and then rebounding after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep interest rates near zero for two year, Business RT spoke with Alexander Nazarov, oil and gas analyst at Gazprombank. RT: OPEC and the International Energy Agency are cutting their estimates for oil demand growth. Do you agree with that?
RT: So if demand is not falling why is demand falling over the last few sessions? AN:"Well the simple reality is that currently the oil price doesn’t have much in common with demand and supply. The point is that crude oil is not a commodity, not a raw material, any more. It is a financial asset the same as gold or equities or something like that. So the main reason for the oil price increases or decreases these spikes, lies not in the supply and demand area." RT: So I suppose that makes it quite difficult to predict how the price of oil will progress for the rest of 2011. How do you see it developing? Do you agree with the IEA assessment? AN: "Absolutely. It is absolutely hard to predict and basically I don’t think now oil and gas analysts should be asked for the price forecast – macro analysts could probably know better what will be seen in liquidity and currency exchange rates and so on. I hope and I think that we wouldn’t see the Urals oil price lower than $100/bbl this year. But it is just because it is good for Russia, maybe because I think so." RT: What will this all mean for the Russian economy with 50% of its budget income coming from energy at the moment? AN: "In the last two days you could probably clearly see what will happen to the Russian rouble as a result of a drop in the oil price. Just 7% down in one day against Euro/Dollar basket, so basically the same will probably happen to all our economy – at least to the budget, as we say. So basically I think it will be pretty hard next year if the oil price goes below $100/bbl, but probably it will get a kick to the development of other than commodities, other areas of the Russian economy." National Economic TrendsAugust 11, 2011 12:19 Russian GDP growth slows to 3.4% in Q2 - Rosstat (Part 2)http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=265168 MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - Russian GDP grew an estimated 3.4% year-on-year in Q2 2011, compared with 4.1% growth in Q1, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. This is below the Russian Economic Development Ministry's preliminary forecast of 3.7% growth for Q2. Rosstat did not say what growth for the first half of 2011 was, but this was an estimated 3.8%, judging by the Q1 and Q2 figures. The Econ Ministry forecast 3.9% growth. GDP growth slowed in Q2 partly because figures were high a year previously: year-on-year growth was only 3.5% in Q1 2011, rising to 5.0% in Q2 (4.3% in H1 2010). The economy grew 3.1% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4 2010, and 4.0% in the year. Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said in July that GDP could grow 4.5% this year - above the ministry's official forecast for 4.2% growth. "In the second half, we expect an acceleration of GDP growth with increased investment and from the standpoint of demand. Secondly, with growth in agriculture. In the third and fourth quarters of last year there was drop in agriculture and now there will be substantial growth in it," Klepach said. Klepach could not say whether the 4.2% growth forecast would be adjusted. "I'm not prepared to say if we will get to 4.2% or a little higher or a little lower. There is a varying range of estimates - from 4% to 4.5%. We will present an adjusted forecast at the end of August," he said. Klepach was talking at a time when oil prices were higher and the Econ Ministry even expected Urals crude would average at more than the officially forecast $105 a barrel in 2011, but the drop in oil prices in recent days has exposed the fragility of such forecasts. Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the end of July that they thought GDP would grow 4.2% in 2011. Pr (Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru) GDP up 3.4% in Q2 http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20110811122135.shtml RBC, 11.08.2011, Moscow 12:21:35.According to preliminary estimates, Russia's GDP climbed 3.4% in physical terms in the second quarter of 2011 year-on-year, the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a statement today. Earlier, the Economic Development Ministry announced that the country's GDP rose 4.5% year-on-year in Q1 2011. The ministry expects full-year GDP to reach 4.2%. Russian GDP Growth Slowed to 3.4% in Second Quarter, Missing Estimateshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/russian-economic-growth-slows-to-3-4-in-second-quarter-missing-forecasts.html By Scott Rose and Alena Chechel - Aug 11, 2011 10:00 AM GMT+0200 Russia’s economy slowed for a second quarter as industrial growth eased and inflation eroded consumer buying power, leaving the world’s largest energy exporter lagging behind emerging-market peers. Gross domestic product expanded 3.4 percent from a year earlier in the April-June period, compared with 4.1 percent in the first quarter, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said in an e-mailed statement today. The median forecast of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey was 4 percent, with predictions ranging from 3.7 percent to 5.3 percent. The Economy Ministry estimated growth at 3.7 percent last month. “Important drivers of economic growth such as construction and transportation, as well as consumer demand and retail trade, were sluggish,” Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at Moscow- based Otkritie Capital, said by phone before the release. He estimated growth of 3.8 percent. Russia is struggling to return to pre-crisis growth rates as a slowing global recovery curbs demand for its commodity exports. President Dmitry Medvedev is targeting annual growth of 8 percent within five years to keep pace with so-called BRIC peers Brazil, India and China. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in May that Russia should almost double GDP per capita within 10 years to become a top-five global economy. The statement was the statistics service’s first official reading of second-quarter GDP and didn’t provide more details. Directory: gifiles -> attach attach -> British Forces – Akrioti, Greece Griffin Fighter Squadron (84 Squadron raf) MoD announced possible Typhoon and Tornado arrivals to the base France attach -> Russia 110204 Basic Political Developments attach -> Unclassified//for official use only attach -> Adaptability Sustainment attach -> Pop-up 1 ("C" Chechnya) Header Text: Emir of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov Image attach -> Russia and Islam are not Separate attach -> Chapter 13: The Northern Caucasus attach -> Russia 100209 Basic Political Developments attach -> The evolution attach -> The devolution Download 299.65 Kb. Share with your friends:
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