Russia 111115 Basic Political Developments
Ruble weakens as Eurozone shivers return
Download 336.63 Kb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Russia Sticks to 4.1% Economic Growth Forecast After GDP Misses Estimates
- Explaining the Discrepancy
- Stronger External Demand
- Russian Growth Accelerated in Third Quarter for First Time Since Last Year
- Investment, Retail Sales
- ‘Substantial Contribution’
- Investment and spending drive Russia growth
Ruble weakens as Eurozone shivers returnhttp://en.rian.ru/business/20111115/168712145.html 12:21 15/11/2011 MOSCOW, November 15 (RIA Novosti)The Russian ruble weakened against the U.S. dollar and the euro on Tuesday, as political and economic uncertainty lingered in Europe and investors grew increasingly jittery over Greece and Italy's ability to solve their debt problems quickly. As of 11:30 a.m. Moscow time, the ruble fell 24 kopecks against the dollar to 30.66 and one kopeck against the euro to 41.69. The value of the bi-currency basket, comprising $0.55 and 0.45 euros, rose 5 kopecks to 35.58 rubles compared to Monday's close, MICEX data showed. Global prices for Brent crude edged up 0.2 percent to $112.10 per barrel on Tuesday on news that commercial oil inventories in the United States dropped by an estimated 1 million barrels. Russia's dollar-denominated RTS stock index edged up 0.19 percent to 1,530.01, while the ruble-denominated MICEX went up 0.69 percent to 1,494.67. On Monday, Italy's Finance Ministry sold 3 billion euros worth of five-year sovereign bonds at 14-year record high yields of 6.29 percent, which caused a new wave of uncertainty on the market and increased investors' fears about the ability of the eurozone's third largest economy to refinance its debt, which currently stands at 1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion).. In Greece, the leader of the center-right opposition Antonis Samaras said on Monday his New Democracy party would not vote for any new austerity plan demanded by international lenders as a condition for releasing an 8 billion euro ($11 billion) installment as part of a 130 billion euro bailout package. European leaders are demanding Greek party leaders sign a commitment to fulfill the accords reached at the EU crisis summit in October, which resolved to write off some of Greece's debt in exchange for a new austerity program, which Greece must implement in the next few years to get financial aid and prevent a default. European stocks fell in early trade on Tuesday by around 1 percent. Asian stocks decreased around 1 percent, while U.S. stocks fell 0.6-1 percent on the previous close. Russia Sticks to 4.1% Economic Growth Forecast After GDP Misses Estimateshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/russia-sticks-to-4-1-growth-forecast-after-gdp-misses-estimates.html Q By Alena Chechel - Nov 15, 2011 7:52 AM GMT+0100 Russia’s economic expansion will accelerate this year from 2010 even after gross domestic product grew more slowly than estimated in the third quarter, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said. The economy will increase 4.1 percent this year after 4 percent last year, Klepach said in a telephone interview yesterday, reiterating the official target. GDP rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier last quarter, missing economists’ forecasts and the Economy Ministry’s estimate of 5.1 percent. The world’s biggest energy exporter is relying on domestic consumption to balance shrinking sales abroad as Europe fights to staunch a debt crisis that threatens to throttle demand for commodities. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who will run for president next year, is seeking annual expansion of between 6 percent and 7 percent to turn the economy into one of the world’s five largest. “Growth of 4.8 percent is a positive result for the Russian economy and we can speak about it reaching a relatively high rate of expansion,” Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of research at Deutsche Bank in Moscow, said in a telephone interview yesterday. The ruble depreciated 0.5 percent to 30.6804 per dollar and was little changed at 41.6950 against the euro at 10:32 a.m. in Moscow. The 30-stock Micex Index retreated 0.6 percent to 1,475.67. The ruble-denominated gauge is down 13 percent this year, less than the 16 percent drop for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Explaining the DiscrepancyThe economy accelerated in the third quarter for the first time since last year. The government predicts GDP will slow in the fourth quarter, growing between 3.8 percent and 3.9 percent. The Economy Ministry will explain the discrepancy between its third-quarter estimate and the figure released by the statistics service when a breakdown of the contributions to growth becomes available, Klepach said. Outflows of capital and insufficient investment are a drag on growth and present risks for Russia’s economy, Klepach said. Net capital flight may reach $70 billion this year, up from a previous forecast for $36 billion of outflows, according to the central bank. Fixed-capital investment surged 8.5 percent from a year earlier in September, while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest in more than three-years. Retail sales jumped 9.2 percent in the biggest increase since October 2008 after a 7.8 percent gain in August.
‘Bounce Back’“The third-quarter growth number confirms our view that the economy will bounce back,” Vladimir Pantyushin, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Moscow, said in a e-mailed note to clients yesterday. “Investment recovery and solid consumer growth are taking the emphasis from industrial production, which has been slowing recently.” The sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, Russia’s most important export market, is hurting demand for manufactured goods. Industrial production grew 3.9 percent in September from a year earlier, the slowest pace since it began expanding in October 2009. Manufacturing stalled in the July-September period, posting the worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2009 and leaving producers to “face lasting stagnation” after foreign sales weakened, HSBC Holdings Plc said, citing data compiled by London-based Markit Economics.
Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend, declined for the second straight quarter, losing 8.2 percent in the July- September period. Russia depends on crude and natural gas for about 40 percent of budget revenue. The economy will match its pre-crisis level by the end of this year, taking twice as long to recover compared with the 1998 crisis that followed the government’s default, according to Renaissance Capital. Russia’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7 percent during Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 before plunging 7.8 percent in 2009. The government forecasts a 3.7 percent expansion next year. ‘Picked Up Strength’“Economic activity has picked up strength from earlier in the year,” Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said yesterday by e-mail. “Overall, this is broadly positive, but not very surprising print given the low base from last year when the economy felt the full brunt of the summer drought.” Russian farmers harvested 95 million metric tons of grain as of Oct. 25, according to the Agriculture Ministry. That’s about 50 percent more than in the same period of 2010 and bolsters the industry following the country’s worst drought in at least a half century last year. Only the fourth quarter will show if faster growth can be sustained, Deutsche Bank’s Lissovolik said. “Agriculture’s contribution to GDP is very high in the third quarter,” he said. “That’s why fourth-quarter data will be even more important for gauging the viability of economic growth.” To contact the reporter on this story: Alena Chechel in Moscow at achechel@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net Russian Growth Accelerated in Third Quarter for First Time Since Last Yearhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/russian-growth-accelerated-in-third-quarter-for-first-time-since-last-year.html Q By Alena Chechel - Nov 14, 2011 1:30 PM GMT+0100 Russia’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter for the first time since last year as companies stepped up investment and bank lending buoyed consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, after increasing 3.4 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists was 5 percent. The Economy Ministry estimated it at 5.1 percent. The world’s largest energy exporter is counting on domestic consumption to balance shrinking demand abroad as Europe fights to staunch a debt crisis. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who will run for president next year, is seeking annual growth of between 6 percent and 7 percent and turn the economy into one of the world’s five largest. “Economic activity has picked up strength from earlier in the year,” Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said today by e-mail. “Overall, this is broadly positive, but not very surprising print given the low base from last year when the economy felt the full brunt of the summer drought.”
The 30-stock Micex Index was little changed at 1,483.93 at 4:22 p.m. in Moscow. The ruble-denominated gauge is down 12 percent this year, less than the 15 percent drop for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The ruble depreciated 0.3 percent to 30.5391 per dollar and was little changed against the euro. Loan growth may reach 30 percent this year, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said on Oct. 25, above the central bank forecast of 24 percent. “Growth in consumption and retail lending is continuing,” Julia Tsepliaeva, head of research at BNP Paribas SA in Moscow, said Nov. 11. “If somebody told me at the start of the year that we’ll have a 30 percent annual increase in credit growth, I would have never believed that. Now that figure no longer seems improbable.” ‘Substantial Contribution’Agriculture also made a “substantial contribution” to growth last quarter, according to Tsepliaeva. Russian farmers harvested 95 million metric tons of grain as of Oct. 25, according to the Agriculture Ministry. That’s about 50 percent more than in the same period of 2010 and bolsters the industry following the country’s worst drought in at least a half century last year. The sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, Russia’s most important export market, is hurting demand for manufactured goods. Industrial production grew 3.9 percent in September from a year earlier, the slowest pace since it began expanding in October 2009. Manufacturing stalled in the July-September period, posting the worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2009 and leaving producers to “face lasting stagnation” after foreign sales weakened, HSBC Holdings Plc said, citing data compiled by London-based Markit Economics. Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend, declined for the second straight quarter, losing 8.2 percent in the July- September period. Russia depends on crude and natural gas for about 40 percent of budget revenue.
‘Disappointing’ GrowthGrowth in Russia has been “disappointing” since the 2008 crisis, lagging behind its emerging-market peers, Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC said in Moscow Nov. 11. Russia needs “a more open attitude to private-sector developments” and greater infrastructure reforms, he said. The economy will match its pre-crisis level by the end of this year, taking twice as long to recover compared with the 1998 crisis that followed the government’s default, according to Renaissance Capital. Russia’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7 percent during Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 before plunging 7.8 percent in 2009. The government forecasts a 4.1 percent expansion this year, slipping to 3.7 percent in 2012. To contact the reporter on this story: Alena Chechel in Moscow at achechel@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net November 14, 2011 10:30 pm Investment and spending drive Russia growthhttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/53c0656a-0ef3-11e1-b585-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1dl0reVMd By Charles Clover in Moscow High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53c0656a-0ef3-11e1-b585-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1dl15AJ5M Russia’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter at its fastest pace in a year, led by investment and consumer spending. Gross domestic product rose 4.8 per cent in the three months to September compared to the previous year, giving a dose of optimism to Russian economy watchers, who have seen the stock market slide 13 per cent since the start of the year amid predictions of a new global recession and financial turmoil in Europe. High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53c0656a-0ef3-11e1-b585-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1dl17OWot However, the third-quarter rate of growth was less than consensus analyst forecasts, which were for expansion of 5 per cent. “Economic activity has picked up strength from earlier in the year,” said Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “Overall, this is broadly positive, but not very surprising given the low base from last year when the economy felt the full brunt of the summer drought.” Economists have grown more pessimistic on Russian growth prospects, given the likelihood of a Europe-wide recession and slow pace of domestic reforms. Earlier this year the World Bank revised its growth forecast for Russia down to 4 per cent, from 4.4 per cent. The consensus forecasts of economists for 2012 has fallen by 100 basis points over the past few months to 3.6 per cent. Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, who has announced he will seek the presidency again next year, has said Russia must resume the robust growth rates of 6 to 7 per cent seen earlier in the decade, which could turn its economy into one of the five largest in the world by 2020. 
The likelihood Russia will join the World Trade Organisation in 2012 added to optimism. Russia this month completed entry negotiations and membership will likely be finalised in December. However, policymakers are pessimistic that Russia can match the growth rates of the last decade without substantial reforms such as privatisation. Economists say these high growth rates were the result of rapidly growing oil prices as well as spare capacity after the post-communist economic collapse of the 1990s. Current growth levels are driven primarily by stimulus spending and higher than expected import demand from China, according to the Kremlin. The third-quarter spurt was driven mainly by a rise in investment and consumption. Fixed-capital investment grew 8.5 per cent from a year earlier in September, while unemployment fell to a more than three-year low. Retail sales jumped 9.2 per cent in the biggest increase since October 2008 after a 7.8 per cent gain in August. Russia’s economy is heavily focused on consumption at the expense of investment, something policy makers are eager to change. Experts hope plans announced by President Dmitry Medvedev to privatize majority stakes in some large state companies by 2015 will remain in place under Mr Putin, who has shown less enthusiasm for liberal economic reforms. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. CBR announced October statistics http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text17786 VTB Capital
--- corporate loan book grew 1.2% MoM --- retail portfolio - 2.2% MoM --- we expect lower growth in 2012 --- Sberbank and NOMOS remain top picks News: Yesterday, the CBR published its statistics on the major trends in the Russian banking sector in October. The key takeaways are as follows. • Corporate and retail loan books saw MoM growth of 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively, with the YoY expansion accelerating to 23.3% and 31.4%. Stripped of the 6% rouble appreciation in October, the growth rate would rise to 2.8% MoM for both segments. • • Retail deposits declined 0.4% MoM (19.8% YoY) while corporate deposits were down 1.8% MoM (39.8% YoY). Our View: The October data suggests only a marginal slowdown in lending activities, with banks still witnessing solid demand in the SME segment. Sberbank has outperformed the sector, posting 2.6% MoM growth in the corporate portfolio and 3.0% MoM in retail (24.7% YoY and 28.2% YoY, respectively). However, the lower number of applications from retail customers and the muted demand from larger corporates (amid negative expectations for the development of the global economy and the growth in lending rates) signals that the seasonal spike in 2011 might be less significant. We are therefore leaving our base case scenario intact, with lending growth of 23% YoY in 2011, slowing to 15% YoY in 2012. Given outflows from the customer accounts coupled with tight liquidity, we expect funding rates to continue to climb (for example, yesterday VTB24 raised retail deposits 100bp), with funding availability becoming a potential cap on loan growth next year. We are reiterating our preference for larger banks, like Sberbank and NOMOS, over mid-caps on account of their larger scale and better funding availability. Directory: gifiles -> attach attach -> British Forces – Akrioti, Greece Griffin Fighter Squadron (84 Squadron raf) MoD announced possible Typhoon and Tornado arrivals to the base France attach -> Russia 110204 Basic Political Developments attach -> Unclassified//for official use only attach -> Adaptability Sustainment attach -> Pop-up 1 ("C" Chechnya) Header Text: Emir of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov Image attach -> Russia and Islam are not Separate attach -> Chapter 13: The Northern Caucasus attach -> Russia 100209 Basic Political Developments attach -> The evolution attach -> The devolution Download 336.63 Kb. Share with your friends:
|