Russia in the Post-Western World: the End of Normalization Paradigm?
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Sosredotocheniye ot uspekhov: Sergei Lavrov podvel itogi krizisnogo goda. Kommersant, January 19. 1 For various assessment of Russia’s strategic thinking see Tsygankov 2005, 2009; Wallander 2007; Mankoff 2009. 2 Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, instead, views the recueillement period first heralded by Yevgeni Primakov in 1996 as “largely completed” (Zygar’ 2009). 3 I follow here a conventional institutional definition of the West as an area that includes the United States and European nations. These nations share pluralistic political institutions, market economy and basic geopolitical objectives of advancing their values and institutions across the globe and defeating their ideological and politico-economic opponents. 4 For similar earlier descriptions of the world’s emerging political structure, see Huntington 1999. Russian analysts too have envisioned a relative decline of the U.S. position in the new international system describing it as “pluralistic”, rather than one state-“unipolarity” (Bogaturov 1996; 2003) and presenting Russia as a member of the unipolar center or a group of states. 5 For analysis of politico-economic aspects of this world, see Barma, Ratner and Weber 2007. 6 This does not mean emergence of West-balancing coalitions – at least not yet – and non-Western countries are merely developing their own rules and arrangements in world politics (Barma, Ratner and Weber 2007). At best, countries, such as Russia, China and India, are involved in soft balancing against the United States (Pipe 2005; Paul 2005). 7 On China, see, for example, Callahan 2008. For Russia’s attempts to move in this direction, see Tsygankov 2007; Feklunina 2008. 8 For example, despite their differences from the West, both Russia and China present their grand visions as consistent with the idea of democracy. Islamists, however, do not hide their despise for secular democratic ideals and promote the notion of Islamic world order. 9 For a description of back-passing, see Mearsheimer 2001, 139. 10See also the articles by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (2008a, 2009a). 11 The vision is reflected in the Foreign Ministry report entitled “A Review of the Russian Federation’s Foreign Policy,” commissioned by the Kremlin and released on March 27, 2007 (Obzor 2007) 12 The full Russian text of the strategy is published on the website of the Russian Security Council at the address http://www.scrf.gov.ru 13 Commentators noted a divide between Igor’ Sechin and Igor’ Shuvalov within the government, as well as one between Deputy Head of Presidential Administration Vladislav Surkov, on the one hand, and Presidential Advisors Arkadi Dvorkovich and Igor’ Yurgens, on the other (Mezhuyev 2009; Whitmore 2009). 14 Based on power measurements, however, Trenin (2008) has acknowledged the futility of the Kremlin’s attempts to have equal relations for the United States. 15 For other work on Russia’s soft power and influence, see Hill 2004; Tsygankov 2006; Feklunina 2008. 16 For a more extended analysis, see Tsygankov 2003. 17 For an earlier statement of this group’s views, see especially Tsymburski 1999. 18 Similarly, a recent popular volume identifies two cultural poles—the material profit-driven America, and a Russia that is viewed as the last stronghold of Christianity (Proyekt Rossiya 2008, 42-45). 19 For example, see recent statements by commentators, such as Igor’ Panarin (2009), about the United States’ approaching disintegration. 20 The motive of non-interference in the region’s developments from outside only became stronger since 2005 and was clearly reflected in Putin’s addresses to the Federation Council in May 2006 and April 2007 (Putin 2006, 2007). 21 See, for example, the remarks by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Fried 2007). 23 For recent analyses of Russia’s China dilemmas, see Flikke and Wilhelmsen 2008; Lo 2008; Rangsimaporn 2009; Tsygankov, forthcoming. 24 The deal was approved by Putin, but blocked by the Duma (Norling 2007, 44). 25 This and other previous agreements with China were criticized by Russian media as disproportionate concessions on part of the Kremlin (Naumov 2008; Latynina 2009). 26 In July 2009, Beijing sent a delegation to Moscow to negotiate conditions of a large group of ethnic Chinese affected by Moscow government’s decision to close the large Cherkizovski trading area due to multiple violations. Headed by Deputy Trade Minister the delegation negotiated restoration of the trading area on condition of Chinese $1 billion investment (Kozenko 2009). 27 Some Russian economists estimated the damage of transferring territories for Russia in $3 billion (Gabuyev 2008). 28 For a more detailed analysis of Russia’s international capabilities, see Tsygankov 2009. 29 According to World Bank estimates, energy has accounted for about 25% of the Russian economy and for about 50% of its GDP growth (Rutland 2008, 1063-1064). 30 For additional criticisms of such course of actions, see Walt 2006; Lieven and Hulsman 2006. For argument about demise of liberal internationalism in the U.S., see Kupchan and Trubowitz 2007. 31 For various analyses of Russia’s recent behavior, see Trenin 2006; Sobel 2007; Gaddy and Kuchins 2008; Mankoff 2008; Tsygankov 2008. 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