Science, and transportation united states senate

Research activities

The Illinois State Water Survey initiated research into the potential

of modifying the weather in the late 1960'S, recognizing the potential

for this emerging technology. In 1970 a major research effort was

launched by the survey in two general aspects of the subject: (1)

studies of inadvertent weather modification produced by cities and

industrial activities, and (2) studies of planned or intentional weather

modification. In the latter category the research is intended to answer

the questions of whether the weather can be modified and whether it

can be done beneficially without undue harm. 68

The survey has been a national leader in studies on planned weather

modification. There has been a concentrated interest in experiments

to determine the usefulness of weather modification in Illinois and else-

where in the Middle West, recognizing that most U.S. weather modi-

fication operations have been conducted in the Great Plains and in the

Rockies where capabilities to augment precipitation have at least partly

been demonstrated. Thus, survey scientists have given considerable

attention to the design of experiments to increase summer rainfall and

to suppress hail. With some support from the National Science Foun-

dation (XSF) they have recently completed development of a design

for a major 8-year hail suppression experiment for Illinois. The State

is now ready to launch a hail experiment if it is determined desirable

to do so. 69 Interest in hail suppression also led the survey to join with

other experts in performing an XSF-sponsored national-scale tech-

nology assessment of hail suppression. 70

In 1968 the water survey also began a project to develop the design of

an experiment in precipitation modification, funded by the XSF and

the Bureau of Reclamation. A capability was developed in numerical

cloud modeling, using computers ; and a field program was initiated,

using meteorological aircraft and radar for sampling clouds to deter-

mine seedability criteria. After a major reduction in Federal support

during 1973 had curtailed this design project before its completion,

renewed support from the Bureau of Reclamation has enabled survey

scientists to develop a design for a rainfall modification experiment in

the High Plains. They are now prepared to resume design for a warm

rain experiment in Illinois, after completion of the cloud sampling

research. 71

Survey scientists have discussed rainfall requirements with Midwest

agricultural interests and are developing a plan for a Midwestern rairi-

« Gildersleeve, Ben. Briefing before U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Modification

Advisory Board. Champaign. 111.. Oct. 13, 1077.

changnon. Stanley A., Jr.. "Accidental and Planned Weather Modification in Illinois,"

Water Resources Bulletin, vol. 13, No. 6, December 1077, p. 11 GO.

80 Ibid., p. 1172.

7 " Changnon, Stanley A., Jr.. Ray Jay Davis. Barbara C. Farhar. J. Eugene Haas. J. Lore-

ena Ivens. Martin V. Jones. Donald A. Klein, Dean Mann. Griffith M. Morgan. Jr., Steven T.

Sonka, Earl R. Swanson, C. Robert Taylor, and Jon Van Blokland. "Hail Suppression ; Im-

pacts and Issues." Urbana, 111.. Illinois State Water Survey, April 1077. 432 pp. (A sum-

mary of the report has also been published : Farhar. Barbara C. Stanley A. Changnon. Jr.,

Farl R. Swanson, Ray Jay Davis, and J. Eugene Haas. "Hail Supression and Society," Ur-

bana. 111., Illinois State Water Survey. June 1077. 25 pp.)

71 Changnon, "Accidental and Planned Weather Modification in Illinois." 1077, pp. 1172-

1173.

361

tural colleges in Midwestern States and from Federal Government

agencies. When funding is secured for this project, hopefully during

1978, the experiment will be initiated ; it will incorporate both physical

and statistical assessment of cloud and rainfall modifications as well

as studies of public attitudes and economic and ecological impacts from

altered precipitation. 72

In an attempt to evaluate precipitation modification operations con-

ducted during the 1976 growing season in central Illinois, the survey

and the College of Agriculture at the University of Illinois installed a

rain gage network. Examination of these data led to a conclusion that

the seeded areas received 12 to 50 percent more rainfall ; however, the

differences could not be established as due to the seeding in view of the

small sample size (6 rain days) . 73

Survey scientists have also participated in a number of experiments

on inadvertent weather modification, including the METROMEX in

the vicinity of St. Louis 74 and similar studies downwind of Chicago

and Kansas City. They have also studied effects on rainfall of the mas-

sive irrigation which has been developed in the Great Plains since

World War II. 75

Over the past 10 years the survey has spent about $3 to $4 million in

weather modification research, including both planned and inadvertent

aspects. Of these funds about one-third was provided by the State,

while the remainder has come from various Federal agencies. The latter

include the National Science Foundation, the Bureau of Reclamation,

and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 76 The funds for

EPA-supported research in inadvertent weather change are not con-

sidered to be weather modification research by the EPA, so that agency

does not appear among the Federal agencies supporting weather modi-

fication in chapter 5. 77

KANSAS

Kansas Weather Modification Act

Kansas Weather Modification Act, providing for licensing by the

State of all qualified persons who desire to engage in weather modifi-

cation activities within the State and requiring that a permit be ob-

tained for each specific activity. 78 Responsibility for administering

the act is placed with the Kansas Water Resources Board ; however,

the law also requires the board to appoint an advisory committee to

assist the board's executive director in developing licensing standards

and report forms and to assist in other areas as directed by the board.

Rules and regulations prepared by the board and the advisory com-

mittee specify how the law is administered and procedures to follow

in applying for licenses and permits. 79 The objectives of the rules and

regulations are to "encourage the development and evaluation of

weather modification technology, to protect the public through the

requirement that operators . . . possess certain basic qualifications, and

72 Ibid., p. 1173.

73 Ibid.

74 See chs. 4 and 5 for a discussion of METROMEX.

75 Changnon, "Accidental and Planned Weather Modification in Illinois," 1977, pp. 1173-

1174.

fication Advisory Board. Champaign, 111., Oct. 13, 1977.

77 See p. 243, for list of Federal agencies reporting weather modification research pro-

grams.

79 The rules and regulations are reproduced in app. M, p. 683.

362

to establish procedures for the issuance of permits with a minimum

Research activities

Drought conditions during the spring of 1972 and pleas from agri-

cultural interests in western Kansas to "do something about it"

spurred the State to undertake plans for weather modification opera-

tions. Release of $100,000 in emergency funds by the legislature pro-

vided support for cloud seeding in northwestern Kansas, and the water

resources board was directed to manage the operations. The board

contracted with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to oversee the proj-

ect: however, prior to the start of the seeding, the drought situation

improved and emphasis was shifted from drought relief to weather

modification research. Since 1972 all weather modification activities

conducted by the State of Kansas have been experimental. Such

experiments were conducted under the management of the Bureau of

Reclamation for 9 weeks, starting August 5, 1972, near Colby, Kans.,

and for an 8- week period in the late summer of 1973 at Scott City,

Kans. During a 6-week period starting April 25, 1974, a demonstra-

tion project was conducted, with the target area again centered near

Scott City. This latter project was carried out by a commercial firm

under direct contract to the State board and also included funding

from four counties in the target area. Results of these experiments,

called the Kansas Cumulus projects (KANCUP), are summarized in

table 14. 81

TABLE 14— SUMMARY OF THE KANSAS CUMULUS PROJECT (KANCUP) EXPERIMENTS

[From Kostecki: Weather Modification Activities in Kansas, 1972-77, 1977]

Project

Assessment 1

KANCUP 1972, Aug. 5 to

Sept. 30 (cost $95,000,

fiscal year 1973).

KANCUP 1973, Aug. lb to

Oct. 5 (cost 558,000, fiscal

year 1974).

KANCUP 1974, Apr. 5 to

June 8 (cost $54,000, fiscal

year 1974).

Assuming technology works, seed for

rain increase; experiment with both

silver iodide (Agl) and hygroscopic

materials (salt); test ground release

of materials; inform general public

about project and technology.

Verify computer models of cloud proc-

esses; seed selectively with Agl and

salt; assess use of local pilots and

aircraft; inform general public about

project and technology.

Assess minimum operational require-

ments; seed with Agl and salt using

randomized controls; evaluate char-

acter and frequency of opportunities

in spring compared to summer;

infcrm general public about project

and technology.

Opportunities difficult to predict and recognize;

positive, predicted response to Agl on 2 of 16

days (20 percent of seeded cells); salt seeding

only occasionally encouraging; moderate

response on only 1 of 11 days (10 percent of

seeded cells); ground-based seeding unre-

liable; not enough attention given to control

clouds.

Models helpful; seeding frequently produced

predicted response; positive, predicted re-

sponse to Agl on 7 of 14 days (42 percent of

seeded cells); however, marginal response on

5 of the same 7 days; salt seeding on only 2

days; moderate response from 33 percent of

seeded cells; design and instrumentation

inadequate; local pilots need experienced

guidance to be effective.

Selective seeding sometimes produced desired

response; positive response to Agl on 8 of 13

days; however, marginal response on 6 of the

same 8 days; moderate resoonse to salt seed-

ing on 1 of 2 days; springtime cloud systems

usually more organized but seedabilily less

predictable; design and instrumentation

inadequate for remaining uncertainties.

KANCUP 1974 assessment done by KWRB personnel, following criteria given in KANCUP 1972 and 1973 final reports.

*° Kansas Water Resources Board, The Kansas Weather Modification Act; State statutes,

rules, and regulations plus applicable forms. State of Kansas. Topeka, 1!)77. p. ii.

« Kostecki. Donald F.. "Weather Modification Activities in Kansas; 1972-77." bulletin

No. 22, special report to the Governor and legislature, State of Kansas, Topeka. 1977,

pp. 1-3.

363

Since quantitative data from KANCUP experiments were limited

similar type and refinement would not likely increase understanding

of weather modification science and technology. Consequently, start-

ing in fiscal year 1975 all appropriations have been directed to studies

on economic, social, legal, and environmental impacts of weather

modification wilthin the State. 82

Earlier in this report plans and research activities to date under

the Bureau of Reclamation's High Plains Project (HIPLEX) were

discussed. 83 One of three sites selected for HIPLEX is in the vicinity

of Goodland and Colby, Kans., where limited field activities were be-

gun in 1975, but where seeding experiments are to begin in 1979. The

States of Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska have signed a Memoran-

dum of Understanding, agreeing to cooperate with the Bureau of

Reclamation in the planning and conduct of HIPLEX. Funding con-

tributed to the project by the States under this agreement is sum-

marized in table 11 in chapter 5. 84 Under this agreement the Kansas

Water Resources Board will (1) establish and operate a data gather-

ing network in the Colby, Kans., area to provide data for agricultural,

environmental, and climatological research studies and to moni-

tor the effects of cloud seeding; (2) perform a wide range of associ-

ated studies including investigation of potential crop yield increases

and related economic benefits, the effects of additional moisture on

insects, crop disease vectors, incremental runoff and soil infiltration,

and study of social attitudes and acceptance of cloud-seeding tech-

nology; and (3) perform research to develop criteria for guiding

operational cloud-seeding decisions, including the initiation, suspen-

sion, and termination of seeding. For its part, the Bureau of Reclama-

tion will perform the atmospheric research and field tests, including

(1) design of the observation and cloud-seeding experiments, (2) proc-

essing and analysis of data to evaluate seeding effects and develop

and verify cloud models, and (3) coordination of research activities at

the Colby-Goodland site with the overall HIPLEX project. 85

Pursuant to the cooperative agreement with the Bureau of Reclama-

tion, the Kansas Water Resources Board has initiated several studies.

Completed and on-going projects sponsored by the board since the

latter part of fiscal year 1974 are listed in table 15.

Table 15.

-Kansas research projects related to weather modification (source

Kostecki, 1977)

Title

western Kansas High Plains.

Characteristics of Cumulus Cloud Fields over

western Kansas.

The Measurement of Silver Concentration in

Rainwater in Kansas.

A Comprehensive Study of the Effects of Alter-

ing the Precipitation Pattern on the Economy

and Environment of Kansas.

Data Collection and Analysis

Contractor

Department of Physics, Kan-

sas State University.

Department of Geography-

Meteorology, University of

Kansas.

versity of Kansas.

Kansas Agricultural, Experi-

ment Station.

Various Federal, State, and

local agencies.

82 Ibid., p. 2.

83 See ch. 5, p. 258.

84 See p. 263.

85 Kostecki, "Weather Modification Activities in Kansas

1972-77," 1977, p. 5.

364

Since the Kansas Weather Modification Act has been enacted there

has been only one license and permit sought and granted annually.

During the period April 15 through September 15 in each of the

recent 3 years the Muddy Road project has been conducted in west-

central and southwest Kansas, under the auspices of the Western Kan-

sas Groundwater Management District No. 1. Funds have been al-

most completely provided by groundwater management districts and

counties in the area. In 1975 the Muddy Road I project conducted

cloud seeding for rain increase on 39 days and for hail suppression on

27 days. Total cost for the 5-month seeding period was $80,000. The

Muddy Road II project in 1976 included 47 days of seeding for rain

enhancement and 25 days for hail suppression, at a cost of $153,000,

about $40,000 of which was granted to the project by the Ozarks Re-

gional Commission. During 1977 the Muddy Road III project in-

cluded seeding for rain on 50 days, during 28 of which hail seeding

was also conducted ; there were also 7 days for exclusive hail suppres-

sion. The $180,000 for operating expenses during 1977 was raised by

the counties and groundwater districts but these funds were partly

reimbursed in September through a grant under the Emergency

Drought Act of 1977. 86 ' 87

The Kansas law does not require evaluation of results of a weather

modification project; however, the rules and regulations do require

that a final report be submitted within 90 days following the close of

the project. Information required includes daily records during the

project period of starting and ending times and location of seeding,

the type of clouds seeded, and the purpose of the seeding activity, as

well as the permit holder's interpretation of the project effects in com-

parison with those anticipated in the permit application. This eval-

uation is, generally speaking, qualitative, based on the project meteor-

ologists' recollections of cloud response observed by radar during

seeding. Effects of the Muddy Road projects have been evaluated in

this manner, with the conclusion that additional rain was obtained

and crop damage was reduced by the seeding. In order to assist in a

more quantitative evaluation, the Muddy Road project has been

provided by the State Water Resources Board with a computer term-

inal linked* to the Bureau of Reclamation's Environmental Data Net-

work. 88 Products from the data network provide the project meteor-

ologist with daily decision criteria for cloud seeding and could also

be used to evaluate operating procedures and effectiveness of seeding

if additional information were available. Due to lack of staff and lack

of sufficient data for an adequate evaluation, detailed evaluation of

the Muddy Road projects has not yet been conducted. However, an

independent evaluation of the three seasons of cloud seeding in Mud-

dy Road is currently being attempted on all available data, using funds

provided under the Emergency Drought Act of 1977. 89

Emergency Drought Act of 1977

In October 1977. the Kansas Water Resources Board was awarded a

grant of $300,000 from the Bureau of Reclamation under the provisions

of the Emergency Drought Act of 1977. 90 A limitation of this grant

wfiSstecki!' ^Weather Modification Activities in Kansas; 1972-77," 1977, pp. 10-11.

» K^Steckt,' 'leather Modification Activities in Kansas ; 1972-77," 1977, pp. 11-12.

90 See ch. 5, p. 267.

365

quently, the grant was used primarily to purchase equipment for future

summer seeding operation measurements and evaluations. A portion

of the fimds has been used to commission an evaluation of the opera-

tional projects under Muddy Road, conducted by local groundwater

districts and counties in western Kansas. 91

Following an exchange of letters between the board and the Bureau

of Reclamation, the grant, under Public Law 95-18, was approved with

the following conditions and limitations :

1. The request was increased from the $218,600 to $300,000 because of

the probability of an understimation of equipment costs. (This total

was subsequently adjusted to $293,000.)

2. Expenditures of grant funds by the State were to be limited to

equipment purchased and available for operational use on or before

January 31, 1978.

3. All funds not expended by January 31, 1978, were to be returned

to the U.S. Government.

4. In the event that the Kansas legislature did not appropriate funds

to implement the cloud-seeding program, or that such funds were not

provided by other non-Federal sources for use during the 1978 irriga-

tion season, all equipment purchased with the grant funds were to be re-

turned to the U.S. Government. 92

Of the total funds granted, $22,000 was used to reimburse sponsors

of the operational cloud-seeding program in Western Kansas (Muddy

Road), for the cost of operations during September 1977. The evalua-

tion of the operational programs conducted during the 1975, 1976, and

1977 seasons was contracted for $27,000. The remaining expenditures

were for repair and replacement of equipment or purchase of new

equipment for use within Groundwater Management District No. 1 or

for general use- by the Kansas Water Resources Board in the future. 93

NORTH DAKOTA

Weather modification law and administration of regulations

The State of North Dakota is active in the encouragement and the

regulation of weather modification projects. As stated in the following

excerpt from the State law. North Dakota claims ownership of all water

acquired within its boundaries through weather modification activities :

Tn order that the State may share to the fullest extent in the benefits

already gained through fundamental research and investigation on new

and improved means for predicting, influencing, and controlling the weather,

for the best interest, general welfare, health, and safety of all the people of the

State, and to provide proper safeguards in applying the measures for use in con-

nection therewith in order to protect life and property, it is deemed necessary and

hereby declared that the State of North Dakota claims its sovereign right to use

the moisture contained in the clouds and atmosphere within the sovereign State

boundaries. All water derived as a result of weather modification operations shall

be considered a part of North Dakota's basic water supply and all statutes, rules,

and regulations applying to natural precipitation shall also apply to precipitation

resulting from cloud seeding. 94

01 Kostecki. "Weather Modification Activities in Kansas ; 1972-77," 1977. p. 14.

92 Kansas Water Resources Board, final report ; Emergency Drought Act (Contract No.

State-07-70-X0017), (preliminary draft), Topeka, Feb. 3, 1978, p. 2.