Science, and transportation united states senate

Introduction

Several weather modification processes have economic implications

of great significance. Many sectors of agriculture, industry, and com-

merce may reap benefits or sustain losses as a result of shifts from his-

toric weather trends. The difficulty is that until the technology is more

highly developed and control systems perfected to permit reliable pre-

dictions of outcomes, attempts to quantify benefits and costs will, in

many cases, be more academic than practical.

The long-term potential for economic gains through weather modi-

fication cannot be denied. For example, studies sponsored by the Bureau

of Reclamation (11)73) of the potential increase in water supply from

operational weather modification in the Upper Missouri River Basin

indicate that seeding winter orographic storms in headwater areas

could provide as much as 1.8 million acre-feet of new water annually. 1

In the Yellowstone subbasin, the estimated potential is 536,000 acre-

feet per year. Table 1 summarizes results of the study. These estimates

are based on an assumed October-through- April cloud-seeding period.

If seeding were extended through May and early June, a further incre-

ment of 20 to 25 percent could become available provided that May-

June precipitation is increased in proportion to October- April pre-

cipitation. The cost of providing this new water is estimated to be $2.50

per acre-foot. 2

1 U.S. Department of Interior. Water for Management Team, "Report on Water for Energy

in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin," Wash-

ington. D.C., January 197o.

2 Ibid.

476

Weather modification

Average —

Drainage

annual

Area

area

affected

runoff

(square

(1,000

acre-ft)

miles)

acre-ft)

Milk River at Milk River, Alberta

1 036

278

I

Marias River near Shelby

728

74

1 308

212

Sun River near Vaughn

1,854

579

85

9, 973

Rnhtatal

954

Yellowstone:

11,795

5,161

Wind River at Boysen Reservoir

7, 701

997

126

681

512

1,538

1,501

Subtotal

834

Other

Total, Upper Missouri (above Sioux City, Iowa) 1, 837

Source of data: "Twelve Basin Investigation," prepared for USBR by North American Weather Consultants, vol. I,

Dec. 31, 1973.

The nature of direct benefits from increased precipitation is

obvious, but many indirect benefits and costs are more elusive and sug-

gest that further study of the sociological, legal, and environmental im-

plications of weather modification is needed and should be accelerated.

Economic Setting

To place the economic aspects of weather modification in better per-

spective, a review of the operational status of the principal modification

processes will be useful : 3

1. Dispersion of cold fog and seeding of winter orographic storms al-

ready have limited operational capability.

2. Dispersal of warm fog, modification of precipitation from con-

vective systems, and hail suppression are on the threshold of opera-

tional capability.

3. [Modification of major storm systems to minimize damage from

wind and flooding, lightning suppression, and modification of torna-

does are currently hopes for the future.

Considering the state of the art as summarized above, it is not difficult

to realize the tenuity of conclusive economic analyses.

Constraints on reliable quantification of benefits and costs associated

with weather modification practices are related not only to the present

uncertainty of technology but also to the complex nature of legal and

economic aspects of externality problems. 4 ' 5 For example, decisions re-j

garding the development of facilities to enhance agricultural produc-

tion through more efficient use of water on one's own land are essen-

tially independent of imposing costs on others or on bestowing benefits

8 Crutchfield. James A.. "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential." draft of papej

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Dnfj

verslty of Washington. Seattle. Wash., May 1977.

* Lackner, T. ().. et al„ "Precipitation Modification," National Technical Information

Service, PB 201534, Springfield, Va., July 1071. pp. vill-l to VIII-14.

* Fleagle, R. O., "Weather Modification — Science and Public Policy," University of Wash-

ington Press, Seattle, Wash., 1978, pp. 31-40.

477

on others for which there is no return. Counter to this is the situation

provement. In this case, increased precipitation could benefit farmers

not sharing in payment for the program but impose hardships and

costs on others. For example, more rainy days would be detrimental to

operators of outdoor recreational facilities. Considering this, it is ap-

parent that collective action will be required for effective weather

modification. Unfortunately, development of the appropriate institu-

tions and laws, and clarification of legal liability issues, will likely be

a slow process, requiring an unusual degree of cooperation and public-

spirited effort.

Finally, it should be recognized that weather modification benefits

are bounded by the cost of achieving the same objectives with the "next

best" alternative. 6 For example, crop yields could be increased through

the importation of water to deficient areas, modified use of agricultural

chemicals, or use of improved plant varieties.

The following sections present a summary of the economic aspects

of weather modification procedures, a review of methodology for eco-

nomic analyses, and a discussion of case studies of the benefits and

costs of several operational programs.

Economic Aspects of Weather Modification Procedures

fog dispersal

The impact of adverse weather conditions on transportation systems

is well known. Of particular significance is fog. About 97 percent of all

scheduled airline nights are completed each year, but of the remain-

ing 3 percent about one-half are canceled because of fog. The percent-

age is small, but as noted by Beckwith 7 the cost is very large. He points

out that during 1964, more than 800 million airline-miles were flown

in the United States and that gross revenues generated during that

period totaled $4.25 billion.

At present, seeding of cold fog at temperatures below freezing is an

operational technology. This procedure is used at numerous civilian

and military airports, and shows net benefits of magnitude significant

enough to permit its undertaking by private firms and local govern-

ments. According to the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences, cold fog dissipation programs at several airports have

shown benefit-cost ratios of more than 5 to 1 savings in delayed or

diverted traffic. 8

Unfortunately, cold fogs constitute only about 5 percent of the eco-

nomically disruptive fogs which occur in the United States. The Air-

line Transport Association estimates that elimination of delays due to

warm fogs would result in annual savings of $75 million at 1971 prices.

8 Crutchfield. James A., ''Weather Modification : The Economic Potential." draft of paper

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Uni-

versity of Washington, Seattle. Wash.. May 1977.

7 Beckwith. W. B.. 1966* "Impacts of Weather on the Airline Industry : the Value of Fos:

Dispersal Programs," in : Sewell, W. R. D., ed., 1966. "Human Dimensions of Weather

Modification" University of Chicago, Department of Geographv, research paper No. 105,

pp. 195-207. •

s Federal Council for Science and Technologv. "A National Program for Accelerating

Progress in Weather Modification," ICAS Rept. No. 15a, Executive Office of the President,

June 1971.

34-857—79 33

478

In addition, about $300 million in losses are incurred by fog-associated

to indicate the payoff which could result from further advances in

warm fog dispersal programs. Fortunately, although reliable opera-

tional technology for warm fog dissipation does not yet exist, it ap-

pears that the technical problems are manageable and that successful

procedures are not too far from development.

PRECIPITATION AUGMENTATION

The economic potential of precipitation augmentation through seed-

ing operations is great. In areas of or during periods of marginal pre-

cipitation, increases of only a few percent might mean the difference

between a plentiful crop and complete failure.

Orographic cloud seeding

The Interdepartmental Committee on Atmospheric Sciences has re-

ported that irrigation benefits of $50 per acre-foot per year can be gen-

erated by snowpack augmentation in the Colorado River Basin. 9 On

the basis of a 15-percent increase in snowpack due to seeding, it is esti-

mated that about 2 million additional acre-feet of water per year could

be generated at a cost of about $1.50 per acre-foot. Other economic

benefits such as increased hydroelectric power and salinity control

would also result.

By 1977, the scientific community generally supported the thesis

that operational capability for seeding winter orographic clouds to

produce increased precipitation on the order of 10 to 20 percent had

been achieved. Arguments now relate mostly to unknowns regarding

individual seeding performances and the separation of seeding effects

from natural occurrences.

The economic gains from seeding orographic clouds can be signifi-

cant, especially when facilities already exist for storing and distribut-

ing the increased flows which result. Studies in California and Colorado

suggest that benefits from snowpack augmentation exceed costs. Re-

garding the Colorado experience, Weisbecker said. 10 "On this basis,

it appears that the benefits of an operational program could exceed the

sum of the direct costs and the indirect costs to the areas of origin in

the upper basin."

Connective cloud seeding

From a national viewpoint, the potential for economic gains through

the ability to increase precipitation from convective cloud systems i.s of

far greater consequence than that from orographic storms. Un for-

tunately, operative capability in this area has not yet been achieved.

A ( cording to Crutchfield : 11

Operational procedures for using these very large potential atmospheric re-

sources still await the development of more complete scientific understanding and

8 Ibid.

10 Weisbecker. Leo W., "Technology Assessment of Winter Orographic Snowpack Aug-

mentation in the Upper Colorado River Basin." summary report, Stanford Research Insti-

tute. Menlo Park, Calif., May 1972. pp. 13-19.

u Crutchfield. James A., "Weather Modification : Tbe Economic Potential." draft of

paper prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce,

University of Washington, Seattle. Wash.. May 1977.

479

points of attack for enhancement or inhibition of precipitation.

The possibility must not be ruled out that subsequent research may suggest

that convective clouds are simply not amenable to controlled modification ; a con-

clusion which would be discouraging but still economically useful in itself. More

hopeful, and more likely, is the prospect of developing enough predictive capabil-

ity to generate rules of thumb about effectiveness of seeding operations. Then,

and only then, will farmers change their techniques to take full economic ad-

vantage of the additional water.

What makes the potential gains from convective system seeding so

attractive is the fact that these storms are widely distributed geo-

graphically and they influence grain producing areas of national and

international significance. Crutchfield notes that if precipitation were

increased in the semiarid high-plains States by 2 or 3 percent, the costs

of operating a precipitation augmentation program would be easily

covered. 12

Since limited experience upon which meaningful economic Analyses

of benefits from modification of convective storm systems exists, only

crude estimates are available. Nevertheless, it appears that if opera-

tional programs were in effect in North America, Europe, Australia

and the U.S.S.R., wheat production in these areas might be increased

by as much as 5 percent. 13 This is very significant since wheat produc-

tion increases in the range of 3 to 8 percent would meet normal import

requirements of a large part of the nonwheat producing regions of the

world. 14 The foregoing projections are based on an increase in pre-

cipitation on the order of 10 percent, but this might be overly optimis-

tic since most atmospheric scientists believe increases of 3 to 5 percent

would be a major breakthrough.

Of considerable interest is the production of additional water during

periods of drought. This would have significant economic payoff. The

problem, however, is that weather modification depends on the avail-

ability of moisture in the atmosphere and is therefore more likely to

increase jDrecipitation during periods that would normally be wet. The

atmospheric conditions associated with prolonged droughts are any-

thing but conducive to outstanding successes for weather modification

programs. A corollary is that the instability of agricultural output due

to weather variations might be increased through weather modification

practices and this should be recognized.

Precipitation augmentation and energy considerations

Additional water supplies developed through precipitation augmen-

tation will have little direct impact on most energy issues although

small increments of hydroelectric power will result. The most signifi-

cant area of energy-water interaction, in which augmented water sup-

plies could play an important role, is related to coal and oil shale

development in the northern Great Plains and Western United States.

In these semiarid regions, the incremental development of water could

be of an order of magnitude significant enough to resolve conflicts

between major water uses — namely energy resource development and

12 Crutchfield. James A., "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential," draft of paper

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Uni-

versity of Washington, Seattle, Wash., May 1977.

" Ihid.

480

the introduction address this issue.

HAIL SUPPRESSION

The economic importance of hail suppression ranks second only to

precipitation augmentation in terms of significance to agricultural

production. Average annual losses from hail total about $500 million

in the United States. Most of the damage occurs in the Great Plains

and in Midwestern and Southwestern States.

While rapid progress in hail suppression technology has been made

in recent years, a National Hail Research Experiment, funded by NSF

and conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, could

not find conclusive evidence that reduction in hail damage was actually

achieved in target areas. 15 On the other hand, the Interdepartmental

Committee for Atmospheric Sciences reported in 1971 that in one area

of the North Caucasus of the Soviet Union, hail suppression had been

operational for more than 5 years. 16 It noted that the value of crops

saved exceeded the costs of the program by a factor of 10 or more.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research indicates a break-

even point of about 10 percent effectiveness in the Great Plains. In the

East, a higher percentage reduction of hail would be necessary for

cost-effectiveness since hail damages are less. Crutchfield states that at

a 25-percent reduction level (about the best to be expected), wheat

yields in the United States might be increased by 1 percent 17 but this

might be low since research indicates that hail-suppression techniques

also tend to increase total precipitation.

LIGHTNING SUPPRESSION AND REDUCTION IN STORM DAMAGE

More distant in terms of operational capability (in some cases this

may never be achieved) are procedures for suppressing lightning and

modifying damages from major storms.

Although average annual losses of $100 million from lightning-

caused fires appear to make the economics of lightning suppression

attractive, there is a growing opinion within the U.S. Forest Service

and among professional foresters that naturally occurring forest fires

are not as detrimental to long-term net forest yields as had been previ-

ously thought. 18 In any event, the technology of lightning suppres-

sion is not yet at operational readiness and the economic implications

are clouded.

Loss of hundreds of lives and damages totaling billions of dollars

are incurred annually as a result of major storms. 19 This makes the

prospect of modifying such systems very attractive. At present, how-

ever, the knowledge of storm processes and mechanics of alteration

15 Crutchfield, James A., "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential," draft of paper

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Univer-

sity of Washington, Seattle, Wash.. May 1977;

18 Federal Council for Science and Technology, "A National Program for Accelerating

Progress in Weather Modification," ICAS Kept. No. 15a, Executive Office of the President,

June 1971.

17 Crutchfield, James A., "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential," draft of paper

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Univer-

sity of Washington, Seattle. Wash., May 1977.

18 Crutchfield, James A.. "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential." draft of paper

prepared Cor Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Univer-

sity of Washington, Seattle, Wash., May 1977.

19 Ibid.

481

are not adequately understood and, as a result, meaningful assessment

major portion of current damages might be eliminated if successful

modification of storm characteristics (such as wind velocities) could

be achieved is misleading. Until the side effects of changing large

storm systems such as hurricanes are known, the benefits to be

achieved will elude identification. Modification of wind velocities, for

example, might cause increases in damaging rainfall or shifts in re-

gional distribution of precipitation.

The dangers inherent in tampering with major storm systems, on

the basis of incomplete understanding of such S} r stems, are pointed out

in the following statement by Crutchfield : 20

The first tentative experiments in hurricane seeding — limited to four storms —

only nibbled at the edges of the scientific problems involved, though the results

were certainly interesting enough to suggest an expanded effort. But an attempt

to transfer the program to the Pacific Ocean where larger numbers of storms

more remote from populated areas could be used for experimental purposes

brought such vigorous objections from Japan and China that the program was

halted. One can only contemplate with awe the wrangling that would develop

if demonstrably workable procedures to reduce peak velocities in storms affect-

ing the continental United States were alleged — correctly or incorrectly — to

have influenced the quantity of precipitation received by States in the normal

storm path. There is some evidence (not unchallenged, however) that agricul-

tural, municipal, and industrial activities have benefited substantially from the

increase in water supplies generated by damaging storms.

In summary, modification of Atlantic or Caribbean hurricanes inevitably in-

volves a mixture of benfits and costs so complex as to defy even the grossest kind

of guess as to potential economic gains at this time. Given the inevitable lack

of precision in dentifying causal relationships running from the modification

procedures to perceived winds, waves, and precipitation, public confusion is

pkely to take the form of vigorous defensive action by those who feel them-

selves threatened.

Analytic Methods for Economic Analysis

In 1965, at a symposium on the economic and social aspects of