Science, and transportation united states senate

Oceanic indices:

Sea-surface temperature Ships, satellites, buoys... World ocean E W

Surface-layer heat storage XBT, AXBT, buoys Mid-latitude and low- E, N W

latitude oceans.

Heat transport Moored buoys Selected sections N W

Temperature structure .Ships do E S

Surface salinity Ships, buoys. High latitudes E W

Sea level .1 Tide gauges Selected coastal and E W

island sites.

Composition, dissolved gases Conventional sampling. Selected sections E S

Cryospheric indices:

Floating ice extent Satellite Polar seas, lakes E M

Ice-sheet budget parameters do Greenland, Antarctica N Y

Mountain glacier extent do Selected sites E Y

Snow cover. do Continents E M

Surface and hydrologic indices:

River discharge Flow gauges Selected sites E, N W

Soil moisture Satellite Land areas E W

Lake levels Gauges Selected sites E W

Precipitation Satellite, radar, gauges... Global E W

Composition and turbidity indices:

Chemical composition Sampling Selected sites E S

Aerosols and dust Satellite Global. E W

Anthropogenic indices:

Thermal pollution Sampling.. Continents and coasts N W

Air and water pollution do Global.. E W

Land use Satellite Continents E Y

1 N, completely new monitoring effort required; E, expansion of present monitoring efforts required; P, present (or

slightly expanded) monitoring efforts satisfactory but coordination and further analysis required,

a W, weekly (or possibly daily in some cases); M, monthly; S, seasonally; Y, yearly (or possibly decadal in some cases).

Source: Natichal Research Council, U.S. Committee for the Global Atmospheric Research Program, "Understanding

Climatic Change: A Program for Action," Washington, National Academy of Sciences, 1975; pp. 78-79.

The Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, also of the National Re-

search Council, stated in a 1973 report entitled "Weather and Climate

Modification : Problems and Progress" that if society is to deal with

long-term problems of inadvertent weather modification and climatic

changes caused by man and his activities, then urgent attention and

action are required at the earliest possible moment. The Committee

outlined several courses of action that should be undertaken, each con-

tributing to a part of the necessary work to be accomplished:

1. A worldwide network of ground-based stations is needed to moni-

tor the properties of the atmosphere with particular attention being

given to those gases and aerosols affecting radiation and heat transfer.

Precipitation collection should be undertaken for the analysis of

atmospheric chemical constituents. Surface monitoring efforts should

also be augmented by airborne monitoring of particles and gases in the

atmosphere. Table 5 summarizes in detail the variables to be moni-

tored, the method of monitoring, coverage, effort required and fre-

quency required.

2. Since influence on climate caused by human factors is a global

matter, internationally cooperative plans should be established that

will provide long-term and uniform monitoring data.

189

oped to measure not only cloud cover and cloud types but also the ther-

mal characteristics of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface, as well

as related variations in the albedo of the Earth. Satellite measurements

should be complemented by a program of ground-based remote sensing

of the dynamical, chemical, and particulate properties of the

atmosphere.

4. Computer capabilities for simulation of climate and climatic

changes should be fully utilized. Climatic models eventually may prove

to be quite different from the present general circulation models. How-

ever, if we are to reach the capability to assess the consequences of

further human intervention, climatic model development must be

promptly undertaken. 86

Many of the efforts envisaged are of an obvious international charac-

ter, and the degree to which they should be regarded as national versus

international activities is not of critical importance. The important

point is, however, that there are international efforts now underway of

drect relevance to the climatic problem.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Interna-

tional Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) jointly organized a global

atmospheric research program (GARP) in 1967. GARP goals in-

clude : providing the improved understanding of the global circulation

needed to extend the range and accuracy of weather forecasts; under-

standing the physical basis of climate and climatic fluctuations ; and

providing a firm foundation for the World Weather Watch

(WWW). 87

Several GARP regional expirements are planned in order to exam-

ine specific processes. Hie GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment

(GATE) followed the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological

Experiment (BOMEX, 1969) in a succession of experiments designed

to gain increased understanding of the atmosphere and the causes of

climatic variation and change. The primary objective of GATE was

to learn more about the meteorology of the tropical equatorial belt

where vast quantities of heat and moisture, carried upward by orga-

nized convective systems, are transported and redistributed to higher

latitudes, ultimately affecting global atmospheric circulation patterns.

Because the tropics are believed to be a key to these circulation pat-

terns, scientists expect data from GATE to help them better under-

stand the global climate machine. Conducted as scheduled from June 15

to September 30, 1974, GATE had the cooperation of some 72 coun-

tries. In addition to BOMEX and GATE, experiments designed to

contribute to the understanding of specific oceanic-atmospheric proc-

esses in selected regions are : the Air Mass Transformation Experiment

( AMTEX) , the Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) , and the Polar Ex-

periment (POLEX). These regional experiments and the knowledge

gleaned from them will culminate in a truly international global ob-

serving experiment, the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE)

scheduled for the late 1978-79 timeframe.

86 National Research Council. Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, 'Weather and Climate

Modification : Problems and Progress," pp. 160, 161.

87 WWW is an operational program of member nations of the WMO for making available

the basic meteorological and related environmental information needed by each member

aation to supplement and support Its meteorological services and research.

34-857—79 15

190

The program goals of GARP intersect with the objectives of other

governmental Oceanographic Commission Integrated Global Ocean

Station System (IGOSS) being developed jointly with the World

Meteorological Organization to provide more extensive and timely

information for analysis and prediction of the state of the oceans and

for research purposes. This is accomplished through the development

of a comprehensive monitoring system for the total physical ocean-

atmosphere environment. Another is EARTH WATCH, a major com-

ponent of the United Nations Enviornment Program (UNEP) being

developed to monitor and assess the state of the oceans, atmosphere,

land and human health in order that rational decisions can be made

for the management of the environment. EARTHWATCH will also

interact with and depend on the monitoring and research capabilities

of GARP. A key component of the UNEP/EARTHWATCH global

baseline and regional monitoring effort is the Global Environment

Monitoring System, which is designed to measure and monitor

priority pollutants and related factors of the atmospheric environ-

ment, thus permitting quantitative assessment of the global impact

of manmade and natural influences on weather and climate.

The Global Observing System provides worldwide meteorological

and related environment observation data needed by the World

Weather Watch and GARP. The overall system consists of two subsys-

tem? : a space-based satellite subsystem, composed of two types of

satellites, those in polar orbit and those in geostationary orbit; and a

surf ace-based subsystem composed of basic synoptic surface and upper

air networks, other networks of stations on land and sea, and aircraft

meteorological observations.

The U.S. Committee for the Global Atmospheric Research Program

believes that these observational programs planned in support of

GARP offer an unparalleled opportunity to observe the global atmos-

phere, and furthermore that every effort should be made to use these

data for climatic purposes as well as for the purposes of weather pre-

diction. The Committee emphasized however, that the climatic system

consists of important nonatmospheric components, including the

world's oceans, ice masses, and land surfaces, together with elements

of the biosphere. While it is not necessary to measure all of these com-

ponents in the same detail with which the atmosphere is observed,

their roles in climatic variation should not be overlooked. 88

The Committee's 1975 report, "Understanding Climatic Change:

A Program for Action," further stated that :

The problem of climatic variation differs from that of weather forecasting by

the nature of the data sets required. The primary data needs of weather predic-

tion are accurate and dense synoptic observations of the atmosphere's present

and future states, while the data needed for studies of climatic variation are

longer-term statistics of a much wider variety of variables. When climatic varia-

tions over long time scales are considered, these variables must be supplied from

fields outside of observational meteorology. Thus, an essential characteristic of

climate is its involvement of a wide range of nonatmospheric scientific disciplines,

for example, oceanography, glaciology, hydrology, astronomy, geology, and

paleantology as well as from the biological and social sciences of ecology, geog-

raphy, archaeology, history, economics, and sociology.

88 N'.-itionnl Research Council, U.S. Committee for the Global Atmospheric Research

Program, "Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action," pp. 105, 106.

191

those of weather prediction. The atmospheric general circulation models do not

need a time-dependent ocean for weather-forecasting purposes over periods of a

week or two. For climatic change purposes, on the other hand, such numerical

models must include the changes of oceanic heat storage. Such a slowly varying

feature may be regarded as a boundary or external condition for weather predic-

tion but becomes an internal part of the system for climatic variation. 89

In view of these characteristics, the Committee suggested that while

the GARP concern with climate was a natural one, the problem of

climate goes much beyond the present basis and emphasis of GARP.

Accordingly, they recommended that the global climate studies that

are under way within GARP be viewed as leading to the organization

of a new and long-term international program devoted specifically to

the study of climate and climatic variation, an international climatic

research program (ICRP).

As viewed by the Committee the main thrust of the international

climatic program would be the collection and analysis of climatic data

during a series of international climatic decades (ICD) designated for

the period 19S0-2000. During this period, the cooperation of all nations

would be sought to participate in an intensive effort to develop and

secure as complete a global climatic data base as possible. The Com-

mittee urged the creation of an international cooperative program for

the monitoring of selected climatic indices and the extraction of his-

torical and proxy climatic data unique to each nation, which would

include, but not be limited to, such indices as glaciers, rain forest pre-

cipitation, lake levels, local desert history, tree rings, and soil records.

This would take the form of an international paleoclimatic data net-

work (IPDX) , as a subprogram of the ICRP.

To promote wider international participation in climatic research,

it was recommended that programs and activities be developed to

encourage international cooperation in climatic research and to facili-

tate the participation of developing nations that do not yet have ade-

quate training or research facilities. Internationally supported re-

gional climatic studies describing and modeling local climatic anom-

alies of special interest were also recommended. 90

The Committee stressed the importance of international cooperative

programs to assess the impacts of presently observed climatic changes

on the economies of the world's nations, including the effects on water

supply, food production, and energy utilization, as well as analyses of

the regional impacts of possible future climates.

IMd., p. 106.

00 The World Meteorological Organization headquarters in Geneva is planning a world

conference on climate, tentatively to be held in 1979.

CHAPTER 5

FEDERAL ACTIVITIES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION

(By Robert E. Morrison, Specialist in Earth Sciences, Science Policy Research

Division, Congressional Research Service)

Overview of Federal Activities

The Federal Government has been involved for over 30 years in a

number of aspects of weather modification, through activities of both

the Congress and the executive branch. Since 1947, weather modifica-

tion bills pertaining to research support, operations, policy studies,

regulations, liabilities, activity reporting, establishment of panels and

committees, and international concerns have been introduced in the

Congress. There have been hearings on many of these proposed meas-

ures, and oversight hearings have also been conducted on pertinent

ongoing programs. A total of six public laws specifically on weather

modification have been enacted since 1953, while others have included

provisions which in some way are relevant to weather modification.

Resolutions dealing with the use of weather modification technology

as a weapon by U.S. military forces and promotion of a U.N. treaty

prohibiting such activities have been introduced in both houses of the

Congress, and one such resolution was passed by the Senate.

Federal legislation has dealt principally with three aspects of

weather modification — research program authorization and direction,

collection and reporting of weather modification activities, and the

commissioning of major studies on recommended Federal policy and

the status of technology. In addition to providing direction through

authorizing legislation, the Congress has initiated one major Federal

program through an appropriations bill write-in, and this program

has since regularly received support through additional appropria-

tions beyond its recommended OMB funding level.

Identifiable Federal research and operational weather modification

programs can be traced from at least the period of World War II;

however, the research programs of most agencies other than the De-

fense Department were not begun until the 1950's and 1960's. "While

these research and development programs sponsored at various times

by at least eight departments and independent agencies have consti-

tuted its major involvement, the executive branch has also performed

a wide range of other weather modification activities. Such activities

include the conduct of modest operational programs, coordination of

Federal research programs, collection and dissemination of U.S.

weather modification activities, sponsoring of in-depth studies, publi-

cation of a large variety of reports, negotiation for international re-

strictions barring hostile use of weather modification, and cooperation

with other nations in planning of international research projects or

assisting in foreign operational programs. The latter two activities,

(193)

both essentially international in scope, are only noted here but are dis-

cussed more fully in the chapter on international aspects. 1

While some of the numerous studies on weather modification have

been undertaken at the direction of the Congress, others have been

initiated by one or more Federal agencies or by interagency committees

of the executive branch. Published reports have included those which

present the findings and recommendations of the special studies under-

taken, those which are published periodically by agencies or commit-

tees with regular responsibilities for reporting on Federal programs

or on operational activities, and the many publications on specific re-

search projects which are prepared by the individual agencies or by

contractors and grantees participating in the respective projects. Later

in this chapter some of the Federal reports which fall into the first two

categories are identified under the discussions of major studies, Fed-

eral structure, and coordination of weather modification; reports

from the third category are referenced from time to time throughout

the report. Some of the Federal reports are included in the selected

bibliography in appendix H and many are also listed in the other

major bibliographies which are referenced in that appendix.

Legislative and Congressional Activities

federal legislation on weather modification

Summary

Congressional interest in weather modification has been demon-

strated by the fact that legislation on the subject has been introduced

in nearly every session of Congress since 1947. Nevertheless, in spite of

the apparent interest, a total of six public laws relating specifically and

directly to weather modification have been enacted during this period,

and two of those passed were mere time extensions of specific provisions

in earlier laws. 2 Briefly, these laws are :

Public Law 83-256 (67 Stat. 559) of August 13, 1953, to create

an Advisory Committee on Weather Control, to perform a com-

plete study and evaluation of public and private experiments in

weather modification to determine the U.S. role in research, opera-

tions, and regulation ;

Public Law 84-664 (70 Stat. 509) of July 9, 1956, to extend the

authorized life of the Advisory Committee for 2 years through

June 30, 1958 ;

Public Law 85-510 (72 Stat. 353) of July 12, 1958, to authorize

and direct the National Science Foundation to initiate a program

of study, research, and evaluation in the field of weather modifica-

tion and to prepare an annual report to the Congress and the

President on weather modification ;

Public Law 92-205 (85 Stat. 736) of December 18, 1971, to pro-

vide for the reporting of weather modification activities to the

Federal Government through the Secretary of Commerce and for

dissemination of that information by the Secretary of Commerce

from time to time ;

1 See ch. 10.

* Tliese six public laws are reproduced In app. I.

195

Public Law 93-436 (88 Stat. 1212) of October 5, 1974, to extend

weather modification activities through the Secretary of Com-

merce, as prescribed by Public Law 92-205, through 1977;

Public Law 94-490 (90 Stat. 2359) of October 13, 1976, to

authorize and direct the Secretary of Commerce to develop a na-

tional policy on weather modification and to extend appropriation

authorization for reporting and disseminating weather modifica-

tion activities, as prescribed by Public Law 92-205, through 1930.

Although not exclusively concerned with weather modification,

another act, Public Law 90^t07 of July 18, 1968, amended the National

Science Foundation Act of 1950. Section 11 of this new act specifically

repealed Public Law 85-510, by which the XSF had been directed to

initiate and support a program of study, research, and evaluation in

weather modification and to report annually on the subject.

Another law of some significance to weather modification, though

much broader in its overall purpose, was the fiscal year 1962 public

works appropriation, Public Law 87-330 (75 Stat. 722) of Septem-

ber 30, 1961. Through a $100,000 write-in to this bill, the Congress

initiated the atmospheric water resources program (Project Sky-

water) , conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation in the Department

of the Interior. Through subsequent public works appropriations the

Congress has continued to provide direction to this program almost

every year since its inception and has provided frequent funding

increases over levels budgeted by the administration.

\The Advisory Committee on Weather Control

Between 1951 and 1953 it was disclosed in congressional hearings on

several bills introduced by both parties that water users (farmers,

ranchers, electric utilities, and municipalities) were spending between

$3 million and $5 million annually on weather modification and that

such activities covered about 10 percent of the country's land area. 3 It

was the opinion of the Congress in 1953 that "research and development

in the field of weather modification have attained the stage at which the

application of scientific advances in this field appears to be practical.*'

but also that "the effect of the use of measures for the control of weather

phenomena upon the social, economic, and political structures * * *

and upon national security cannot now be determined. It is a field in

which unknown factors are involved. It is reasonable to anticipate,

however, that modification and control of weather, if effective on a

large scale, would result in vast and far-reaching benefits to agricul-

ture, industry, commerce, and the general welfare and common

defense." 4

Recognizing possible deleterious consequences which might follow