Science, and transportation united states senate

pertinent information on weather modification activities of the Fed-

eral Government and on the status of Aveather modification research

and technology was published in three weather modification summary

reports, published at the request of the ICAS by NOAA. 31 This brief

series ended with the report which covered fiscal year 1973 ; however,

some of the kinds of information contained in these reports will be

included in the NOAA summary reports on weather modification

activities ; such material was first so included in the summary for cal-

endar year 1975. 32

FEDERAL STUDIES AND REPORTS OX WEATHER MODIFICATION

Introduction

In accordance with the mandates of several public laws, or self-

initiated by the agencies or interagency committees, the executive

branch of the Federal Government lias undertaken a number of major

studies over the past 25 years on weather modification policy and/or

recommended programs for research and development. Some of these

studies have been performed under contract, others have been con-

ducted by committees of Federal employees, while a third group were

carried out by Federal committees or panels composed of non-Govern-

ment experts. Each of the completed major studies was followed by a

report which included findings and recommendations.

The earliest studies were conducted in the early 1950's, largely at the

instigation of the Department of Defense, at that time the agency with

the major Federal role in weather modification. The most significant

study and report of the 1950's was that of the Advisory Committee on

Weather Control, directed by Public Law 83-256. There was an un-

usually large number of major studies conducted and reports issued

during the period from 1965 through 1976. The reports included two

from the National Academy of Sciences, two from the Interdepart-

80 National Science Foundation. "Weather Modification : Ninth Annual Report for Fiscal

Fear Ended June HO, 1967." NSF 68-21. Aug 28. 1968. Washington. D.C.. U.S. Govt. Print.

Off., Aug. 28, 1968, pp. 75-77 : and . "Weather Modification ; Tenth Annual Report

for Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 196S," NSF 69-18, Washington. D.C., U.S. Govt. Print.

Off.. Aug. 1969, pp. 111-115.

31 U.S. Department of Commerce. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Summary Report: Weather Modification ; Fiscal Years 1969. 1970. 1971." Office of the

Assistant Administrator for Environmental Modification. Rockville, Md.. May 1973. 163 pp. :

. "Summary Report : Weather Modification ; Fiscal Year 1972." Office of Environmen-

tal Monitoring and Prediction, Rockville. Md., November 1973. 226 pp. : and . "Sum-

mary Report : Weather Modification ; Fiscal Year 1973." Office of Environmental Monitor-

ing and Prediction. Rockville. Md.. December 1974. 155 pp.

32 Cbarak, "Weather Modification Activity Reports ; Calendar Year 1975," June 1976, pp.

37-54.

mental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS), three from the

National Science Foundation, and at least one each from the Depart-

ment of Agriculture, the Environmental Science Services Administra-

tion (predecessor of XOAA), and the Domestic Council's Subcom-

mittee on Climate Change. In 1966 alone, at least five reports on

federally sponsored weather modification studies appeared. The Na-

tional Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA)

has also issued policy statements on weather modification in each of its

six annual reports to date.

The most recent major study was undertaken in 1977 by the Weather

Modification Advisory Board under the auspices of the Department of

Commerce, which has been directed to conduct such a policy study and

to submit a report to the Congress in accordance with the National

Weather Modification Policy Act of 1976 (Public Law 94-490).

The principal weather modification studies and reports, sponsored

by the executive branch are discussed very briefly in the following sub-

sections. 33 The conclusions and recommendations of the major policy

studies are discussed and summarized in a separate chapter of this

report. 34

Studies of the early 1950' s

In 1950, there were controversies among scientists over the validity

of reported results from weather modification experiments, notably

Project Cirrus, a Defense Department project, conducted primarly by

the General Electric Company under contract. 35 It was agreed by those

involved that there should be an independent scientific review of the

work and the claims of spectacular results. The appointed review com-

mittee was organized under the jurisdiction of the Department of

Defense, since Project Cirrus was sponsored by that Department, with

Dr. Bernard Haurwitz of New York University as chairman. The

committee was to investigate results and report to the Defense Depart-

ment; however, when the report was submitted in the late spring of

1950, it was classified "confidential," to the dismay of committee mem-

bers, since it had been hoped that the report would explain the real

prospects of weather modification to the public. 36 According to Byers,

the Defense Department finally agreed to let the report be published

by the American Meteorological Society, and it appeared "in the guise

of a report requested by the president of the Society." 37 - 38 The overall

tenor of the report was one of skepticism toward the claims of success

for Project Cirrus, and the concluding paragraph of the report stated

that :

It is the considered opinion of this committee that the possibility of artificially

available evidence is interpreted by any acceptable scientific standards. 38

In view of the potential value of weather modification techniques and

the controversial results obtained thus far, the research agencies of the

33 Studies and reports of the congressional support agencies have been noted earlier in

this chapter under the discussion of congressional weather modification activities. See

p. 209.

34 See chap. 6, p. 313 ff.

85 For a discussion of Project Cirrus, see p. 39, under the history of weather modification

in chapter 2.

36 Byers, Horace W., "History of Weather Modification," In Wilmot H. Hess (editor).

Weather and Climate Modification. New York, Wiley, 1974, pp. 33-34.

37 Ibid., p. 34.

38 The report appeared under correspondence, signed by members of the committee, in the

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 31, No. 9, November 1950. pp. 346-347

39 Ibid . p. 347.

236

U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, along with the U.S. Weather Bureau,

chaired by Dr. Sverre Petterssen of the University of Chicago. The

Advisory Group was asked to make a survey of the field of weather

modification and u . . . to recommend a program for experiments and

tests that could be expected to clarify major uncertainties that existed

at that time for the operational uses of weather modification tech-

niques." The Advisory Group found some support for the claims of

Langmuir that seeding had affected larger atmospheric systems, but

emphasized the need for clarification experiments. The group con-

cluded that there was good evidence to indicate that cold stratus (and

presumably cold fog) could be dispelled by nucleation. It had not been

possible in any case to predict what results would have occurred if

seeding had not been performed, indicating the need for more rigorous

control of future tests. The Advisory Group consulted a number of

experts in the field and all agreed that there was need for a coordinated

program for experiments in order to determine whether or not weather

systems can be modified with useful results. 40

The Advisory Group recommended establishment of six projects to

answer these questions and was requested to remain and furnish advice

to the projects and their sponsoring agencies, provide for information

exchange, and review results. One of these projects was sponsored by

the Weather Bureau, and of the five sponsored by the Defense Depart-

ment, four were conducted by contractors and the fifth by the Army

Signal Corps in house. In July 195± the Advisory Group met with

representatives of all the projects and sponsoring agencies, reviewed

the results in detail, and recommended that full reports on each proj-

ect be published. Project results were subsequently reported in a 1957

monograph of the American Meteorological Society. 41

Advisory Committee on Weather Control

The first major comprehensive study of weather modification and

its ramifications was undertaken by the Advisory Committee on

Weather Control, following the congressional mandate under Public

Law 83-256, of August 13, 1953, which established the Committee and

directed that the study and evaluation of weather modification be per-

formed. The Committee was comprised of the Secretaries of five de-

partments and the Director of the National Science Foundation, or

their designees, and five private members, including the Chairman,

who were appointed by the President. 42 Chaired by Dr. Howard T.

Orville, the Committee forwarded its two-volume report 43 to Presi-

dent Eisenhower on December 31, 1 0r>7, after the June 30, 1956, termi-

nation date for the act had been extended by Public Law 84—664 of

July 9. 1950. In its final report the committee recommended : 44

(1) That encouragement be given for the widest possible competent

research in meteorology and related fields. Such research should be

4 Petterssen. Sverre. "Reports on Experiments with Artificial Cloud Nucleation : Intro-

ductory Note." In Sverre Petterssen. Jerome Spar. Ferguson Hall, Roscoe R. Braham, Jr.,

! lis J. Rattan. Horace R. Byers. H. J. aufm Kampe, J. J. Kelly, and H. K. Weickmann.

Cloud and Weather Modification: a Group of Field Experiments. Meteorologieil mono-

hs, vol. 2. No. 11. American Meteorological Society, Boston, July 1957. pp. 2-3.

Ibid,, 115 pp.

43 Public Law 83-256, sections 4 and 5.

Arlvisorv Committee on Weather Control, final report of thp Advisory Committee on

Wp.itbf>r Control, Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1958, in two volumes,

22-422 pp.

« Ibid., vol. I. pp. vll-viii.

237

organizations.

(2) That the Government sponsor meteorological research more

vigorously than at present. Adequate support is particularly needed to

maintain continuity and reasonable stability for long-term projects.

(3) That the administration of Government-sponsored research pro-

vide freedom and latitude for choosing methods and goals. Emphasis

should be put on sponsoring talented men as well as their specihc

projects.

(4) That an agency be designated to promote and support research

in the needed fields, and to coordinate research projects, it should also

constitute a central point for the assembly, evaluation, and dissemina-

tion of information. This agency should be the National Science

Foundation.

(5) That whenever a research project has the endorsement of the

National Science Foundation and requires facilities to achieve its pur-

pose, the agency having jurisdiction over such facilities should pro-

vide them.

National Academy of Sciences studies

The Committee on Atmospheric Sciences of the National Academy

of Sciences (NAS/CAS) produced its report on the first of two major

studies on weather modification in 1966. The report, entitled "Weather

and Climate Modification : Problems and Prospects,'' 45 was prepared

by the Committee's Panel on Weather and Climate Modification, with

joint support from the National Science Foundation and the Com-

merce Department's Environmental Science Services Administration.

Volume 1 of the report contains a summary of the study and recom-

mendations, while the second volume presents a general assessment of

the subject, on which the panel based its conclusions and recommenda-

tions. The report expressed cautious optimism regarding the future of

weather modification. Among its recommendations were an increase

in Federal support from the 1965 level of $5 million to at least $30

million by 1970 and the early establishment of several carefully de-

signed, randomized seeding experiments, planned in such a way as to

permit assessment of the seedability of various storm types. The re-

port addressed mostly technical and administrative problems; it did

not consider social, legal, and economic aspects of the subject, since

these topics were taken up in a concurrent study by the NSF's Special

Commission on Weather Modification, which worked closely with the

NAS panel. 46

The second major study was completed by the Panel on Weather

and Climate Modification of the NAS Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences in 1973. 47 Sponsored jointly by the National Science Founda-

tion and the Department of Commerce, the panel was given respon-

sibility in the study "(1) to determine the scientific and national prog-

ress in weather modification since the earlier study of the field was

reported upon in 1966, (2) to consider future activities that would

45 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council, Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences. Wenther and Climate Modification : Problems and Prospects. Publication No. 1350,

Washington. D.C., 1966. in 2 volumes. 40+212 pp.

46 See discussion be^w on reports bv the National Science Foundation, p. 239.

47 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council, Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences, "Weather Modification : Problems and Progress," ISBN 0-309-02121-9, Washing-

ton, D.C., 1973. 280 pp.

238

guide and strengthen work toward further progress, (3) to examine

tivities, and (4) to determine the current circumstances bearing on the

increase, decrease, and redistribution of precipitation." 48 In its report,

the panel attempted to fufill these objectives and further proposed

the following three goals for improving the science and technology of

weather modification : 49

1. Completion of research to put precipitation modification on a

sound basis by 1980.

2. Development during the next decade of the technology required

to move toward mitigation of severe storms.

3. Establishment of a program that will permit determination by

1980 of the extent of inadvertent modification of local weather and

global climate as a result of human activities.

Research programs required to achieve these goals were outlined

along with basic functions to be performed by the several Federal agen-

cies. These organizational recommendations for the Federal program

were : " (1) the identification of a lead agency, (2) the establishment of

a laboratory dedicated to the achievement of the proposed national

goals, and (3) assignment to the recently established National Advisory

Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere of the responsibility for examin-

ing the public policy issues of weather modification, as well as the

development of organization and legislative proposals."' 50

Studies by the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences

(WAS)

on weather modification, which prescribed a recommended national

program in the field. 51 Compiled by the chairman of the ICAS Select

Panel on Weather Modification, Dr. Homer E. Newell of the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration, the report laid out details for

such a national program and contained, as appendices, the earlier

recommended program of the ICAS Select Panel itself, as well as

recommendations from the concurrent studies by the NAS and the

NSF Special Commission.

The ICAS completed another interagency study in 1971, when it

produced a report which outlines a program for accelerating national

progress in weather modification. 52 The report attempted to identify

national weather modification needs and designated research projects

for meeting these needs as national projects, each with a responsible

lead agency and support from other Federal agencies. 53 Some of these

projects were already underway or in planning stages by various

agencies. Few were ever consummated as truly interagency national

projects as envisioned, though there was some degree of cooperation

in some, such as the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE),

* 8 Ibid., p. ill.

*» Ibid., p. xv.

« Newell, Homer E., "A Recommended National Program in Weather Modification," Fed-

eral Council for Science and Technology, Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric

Sciences, ICAS Kept. No. 10a, November 1966, 93 pp.

52 Federal Council for Science and Technology, Interagency Committee for Atmospheric

Sciences, "A National Program for Accelerating Progress in Weather Modification, ICAS

Kept. No. 15a. June 1971, 50 pp. „ . 21.. Aa 00 . .

M For a list of the seven national projects identified by the ICAS, see p. 224. under the

discussion of the activities of the ICAS.

239

(CKBPP), continued essentially as large single-agency projects.

Domestic Council study

A weather modification study was undertaken in 1974, following

establishment of a Subcommittee on Climate Change by the Environ-

mental Eesources Committee of the Domestic Council. Comprised of

representatives from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

and most Federal agencies with atmospheric sciences programs, except-

ing the Defense Department, the subcommittee attempted to assess the

Federal role in weather modification. Drawing upon recent documenta-

tion on the progress, status, and problems in the field, and through a 2-

day hearing of representatives from various parts of the weather modi-

fication community and other interested groups, the subcommittee

prepared its report in 1975. 54 In its executive summary, the Domestic

Council report found that :

Weather modification represents a potential tool for exerting a favorable influ-

ence over destructive weather events and for augmenting water supplies in some

areas where additional water is needed for energy, food, and fiber production ; 55

and the following general recommendation was formulated :

A policy should be adopted to develop, encourage, and maintain a comprehen-

sive and coordinated national program in weather modification research and in

the beneficial application of the technology along the lines of the recommenda-

tions embodied in this report. 56

Specific findings and recommendations were also given for each of

the three areas of research, operations, and regulation, which the sub-

committee examined. 57

Policy and planning reports produced by Federal agencies

Since the very early studies of the 1950-51 era, instigated primarily

by the Department of Defense, other Federal agencies have undertaken

major policy and planning studies, either as "in-house" efforts or

through contractors or committees established by the agency.

The National Science Foundation has produced the greatest num-

ber of agency policy reports, based on studies conducted by its Special

Commission on Weather Modification and by contractors. Two reports

appearing in 1966 were prepared by or under auspices of the Special

Commission, culminating a study authorized in October 1963 by the

National Science Board. 58, 59 The Special Commission, established in

June 1964 and chaired by Dr. A. R. Chamberlain of Colorado State

University, had been "* * * requested to examine the physical,

bilogical, legal, social, and political aspects of the field and make rec-

ommendations concerning future policies and programs." 60 Phvsical

aspects were studied in cooperative liaison with the NAS panel in its

concurrent study ; 61 however, the membership of the Special Commis-

sion reflected expertise in the other aspects of weather modification not

64 Domestic Council. Environmental Resources Committee. Subcommittee on Climate

Change, "The Federal Role in Weather Modification," Washington, D.C., December 1975,

39 pp.

55 Ibid., p. i.

w Ibid.. pp. i-iii.

68 Special Commission on Weather Modification. NSF 66-3. 1966. 155 pp.

59 Taubenfeld. Howard J. "Weather Modification: Law. Controls. Operations." report to

the Special Commission on Weather Modification. National Science Foundation, NSF 66-7,

Washington. D.C.. 1966. 79 pp.

*> Special Commission on Weather Modification. NSF 66-3, 1966, p. iii.

61 See p. 237 above.

240

previously addressed by the other studies. Much of the background

ported by NSF grants and subsequently published as separate reports.

These included the biological aspects, human dimensions, international

relations, and legal aspects. Of these separate studies all were published

in various nongovernmental media, except the last one, which appeared

in the format of the XSF Special Commission report. 62 All of these

aspects were reviewed and summarized, and recommendations were

presented, in the principal Commission report, which sought to answer

the following question : "With the physical possibility of modifying

the weather and climate already partly demonstrated, how by artifi-

cially inducing deliberate changes in the environment may man act to

control or develop changes in the atmosphere considered to be desirable

by society ?" 63

A contracted study was undertaken for the NSF by the Rand Corp.

in 1962 to establish the framework of a cohesive approach to research

on weather modification. Part of the program was to conduct a com-