Science, and transportation united states senate

lllinios.

Schickedanz, Paul T., Univer- Climatic alternations in the Great June 1, 1974 24 55,500

sity of lllinios. Plains due to widespread irriga-

tion.

Societal utilization:

ment of Agriculture. ations of suppressing hail.

Grant, Lewis O., Colorado State Extended area effects from local Dec. 1, 1974 12 280,000

University. weather modification.

Haas, J. Eugene Human Ecology A comparative analysis of public re- Oct. 1, 1974 12 76,000

Research Service. action to weather modification

projects.

Klein, Donald A., Colorado State Microbiological impacts of silver July 1, 1975 __ 12 46,600

University. iodide used in weather modifica-

tion.

of Missouri. guidelines.

Mordy, W. A., Center for the The importance of climate and July 1, 1974 15 87,000

Future. weather alterations to mankind.

Morgan, G. M., University of Design of a hail suppression experi- Nov. 1, 1974 12 67,800

Illinois. ment in lllinios.

Shaefer, Vincent J., State Uni- Second inadvertent weather modi- Apr. 1, 1974 12 33,000

versity of New York. fication workshop.

Taubenfeld, Howrad J., Southern Study group on the consequences of November 1974... 6 13,800

Methodist University. weather modification.

Weather hazard mitigation:

Atlas, David, National Center National hail research experiment... July 1975 12 2,130,000

for Atmospheric Research.

•Moore, Charles B. t New Mexico Lightning protection and thunder- June 1, 1975 12 130,000

Institute of Mining and Tech- storm electrification,

nology.

Anderson, Charles E., Univer- Studies on the dynamics, micro- Jan. 1, 1975.. 12 96,000

sity of Wisconsin. physics, and forecasting of severe

local storms.

Chisholm, John P., Sierra fJe- An accurate and inexpensive air- July 1, 1974 9 44,400

vada Corp. borne windfinding system.

Davis, Briant L., Institute of Chemical ccmplexing of silver iodide- Sept. 1, 1972 24 103,900

Atmosphe ric Sciences. alkali iodide aerosols prepared for

cloud-seeding purposes.

Fukuta, Norihiko, University of Cloud-seeding generators for bio- July 15, 1974 12 100,400

Denver. degradable organic ice nuclei.

Grant, Lewis O., Colorado State Cloud simulation and aerosol lab- Nov. 1, 1974 12 18,000

University. oratory.

Little, Gordon C, National Oce- Dual-Doppler radar investigations of July 1, 1974 12 60,000

anic and Atmospheric Ad- wind fields in severe storms.

ministration.

Simpson, Joanne, University of Evaluation and design of weather do 12 50,000

Virginia. modification experiments.

FISCAL YEAR 1976 AWARDS

Improved weather modification

technology:

Fukuta, Norihiko, University of Development of cloud-seeding gen- Aug. 1, 1975 12 133, 100

Denver. erators for biodegradable organic

ice nuclei.

Gossard, Earl E., National Collection and processing of multiple May 15, 1976 14.5 135,000

Oceanic and Atmospheric Doppler radar data in NHRE.

Administration.

Grant, Lewis O. Colorado State Testing and calibration program for July 1, 1975 12 10,800

University. cloud-seeding materials, seeding

generators, and nucleus-observ-

ing instruments.

Simpson, Joanne, University Evaluaion and design of weather do 9 73,000

of Virginia. modification experiments.

Silver iodide tracing in south Florida do 12 15,000

Warburton, Joseph A., Denver Silver iodide seeding rates and do 6 49,900

Research Institute. snowpack augmentation.

Inadvertent weather modification:

Auer, August H., University of Lidar, acoustic sounder and radi- July 15, 1975 12 52,800

Wyoming. ometer investigation.

Modification of convective cloud Feb. 1, 1976 14 178, 700

activity by an urban area.

274

Quarter. .(Data from Annual Summaries of Awards, RANN, Division of Advanced Environmental Research and Tech-

nology.)— Continued

Principal investigator/

institution

Title

Effective date (months) Amount

FISCAL YEAR 1976 AWARDS-Continued '

Inadvertent weather modification— Continued

Braham, Roscoe R., University Inadvertent weather modification in Feb. 1, 1976..

of Chicago. the St. Louis area.

Changnon, Stanley A., Uni- Studies of urban effects on rainfall ...do_

versity of Illinois. and severe weather.

Hobbs, Peter, University of Inadvertent weather modification by June 15, 1976.

Washington. effluents from coal-fired electric

powerplants.

Ochs, Harry T., University of Numerical cloud modeling: Applica- Feb. 1, 1976..

Illinois. tion to urban effects on precipita-

tion.

Denver. St. Louis with a cloud condensa-

tion nuclei (CCN) spectrometer.

Social, legal, and economic impact of

weather modification:

Farhar, Barbara, Human Ecology A comparative analysis of public Dec. 1, 1975...

Research Services, Inc. response to weather modification.

Grant, Lewis 0., Colorado State A field experiment to test hypotheses ...do

University. of the reality, characteristic, and

magnitude of extended area effects

from weather modification.

Klein, Donald A., Colorado State Management of nucleating agents Oct. 1, 1975...

University. used in weather modification: De-

velopment of microbial threshold

toxicity criteria.

Weather hazard mitigation:

Veal, Donald, National Center National hal research experiment... Aug. 1, 1975..

for Atmospheric Research.

Weather modification in support of

agriculture:

Grant, Lewis 0., Colorado State An assessment of the present and July 1, 1975..

University. potential role in weather modifi-

cation in agricultural production.

Huff, Floyd A., University of Assessment of weather modifica- Nov. 1, 1975..

Illinois. tion in alleviating agricultural

water shortages during droughts.

14

14

14

15 82,000

11 215,709

12 2,361,000

18 71,000

FISCAL YEAR 1976 TRANSITIONAL

QUARTER AWARDS

I mproved weather modification tech-

nology:

Chisholm, John, Sierra Nevada

Corp.

Hallett, John, University of

Maki, Leroy R., University of

Wyoming.

Inadvertent weather modification:

Uthe, Edward E., Stanford Re-

search Inst.

Social, legal, and economic impact

of weather modification:

Lambright, W. Henry, Syra-

cuse Research Corp.

Weather hazard mitigation:

Auer, August H., University of

Wyoming.

Veal, Donald L., National Center

for Atmospheric Research.

An accurate and inexpensive air- Augus

borne wind measuring system.

An assessment of synoptic criteria ...do.

for ice multiplication in convective

clouds.

1976.

of mixing levels, clouds, and

precipitation processes.

..do.

tion technology: A State govern-

ment decisionmaking study.

The kinematics of thunderstorm August 1976

gust fronts relating to the mitiga-

tion of airport flight hazards.

National hail research experiment... July 1976

15

21

18 60, 400

12 56, 300

Weather hazard mitigation

Research supported by NSF in this category is pointed toward the

reduction of undesirable aspects of selected weather hazards. Although

the major effort has been in research on the reduction of hail damage,

research related to other severe weather phenomena lias included in-

vestigations on lightning protection, wind shear warning, and fog

hazard alleviation. The major project in weather hazard mitigation

275

in recent years has been the National Hail Research Experiment

the potential for altering hail ... by cloud seeding' and determine the

extent to which beneficial modification can be accomplished effectively

on an operational basis." 42

The concept of a national hail suppression experiment grew out of

interest by U.S. scientists in hail suppression activities in the Soviet

Union in the 1960's and also from the 1965 recommendation of the

Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS) that

the Foundation, in collaboration with other Federal agencies, should

develop a plan for hail suppression research. 43 As a first step in plan-

ning such a national effort, the NSF invited the National Center for

Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to cooperate in organizing the First

National Symposium on Hail Suppression, which was held at Dillon,

Colo., on October 14-15, 1965, under the chairmanship of Verner E.

Suomi. 44

Arising from the Dillon conference was an NSF-sponsored Hail Sup-

pression Research Steering Committee, also chaired by Dr. Suomi,

which held a number of meetings in the years immediately following

and prepared a hail suppression test outline in 1968. 45 Upon approval

of the outline by the ICAS, the NSF requested that a detailed plan

for a national experiment be developed by NCAR. A "Plan for the

Northeast Colorado Hail Experiment (NECHE)" was prepared by

NCAR 46 and approved by the ICAS in 1969. The NECHE plan called

for an intensive investigation into hailstorms and hail suppression to

be conducted over a 5-year period. After a few years of preliminary

investigations, the project was eventually renamed the National Hail

Research Experiment (NHRE) in 1971.

NHRE was one of seven proposed national projects in weather

modification identified by the Interdepartmental Committee for At-

mospheric Sciences (ICAS) in 1971. 47 The National Science Founda-

tion, which originally planned the experiment, was recommended as

the lead agency for the project, and assistance was to be offered by the

Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Interior, and Trans-

portation and by the Atomic Energy Commission and the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration. 48

Although there was interagency cooperation in planning the experi-

ment and some support to the project during early years by some of

the aforementioned agencies, eventually, most of the other agencies

pulled out and NSF had to provide full support on its own. In a 1974

investigation of the Federal weather modification program, the Gen-

eral Accounting Office (GAO) concluded that "even though the ex-

42 Downie and Dirks, "National Science Foundation Weather Modification Program,"

1976. p. 557.

43 National Science Foundation. "Renort of the First National Symposium on Hail Sup-

pression." Dillon, Colo., Oct. 14-15, 1965, p. 1.

44 Ibid.

43 National Science Foundation. Hail Suppression Research Steering Committee, "Outline

of a Hail Suppression Test." March 1968, p. 1.

48 National Center for Atmospheric Research and Select Planning Group of the Northeast

Colorado Hail Experiment, "Flan for the Northeast Colorado Hail Experiment," Boulder,

Colo.. Mar. 17. 1969.

47 Federal Council for Science and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences. "A National Program for Accelerating Progress in Weather Modification,"

ICAS rept. No. 15a, June 1971, p. 21. (The seven national projects are listed in this report,

p. 225. )

48 Ibid., pp. 35-37.

276

periment was well planned, requiring extensive interagency participa-

their obligations." 49 The GAO study observed that, because of the

withdrawal of some of the intended support, "important segments of

research were lost for 1973" and that each operational season would

continue to have problems with commitments from participating

agencies. 50 The other national projects recommended by the ICAS,

each with much less coordinated planning than XHRE or with no such

coordinated planning at all, failed to materialize as truly national

projects, although some were pursued as major single-agency projects.

NHRE was based on the original NECHE plan prepared for the

XSF by the Xational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) , and

management for conduct of the experiment was assigned to NCAR

by NSF. The experiment was a cooperative effort between NCAR and

10 universities, funded by NSF, with additional support from the De-

partment of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-

istration), the Department of Transportation (Federal Aviation Ad-

ministration), and the Department of Defense. Figure 9 is a map of

the northeastern corner of Colorado, showing the two areas between

Sterling, Colo., and Kimball, Nebr., which were target areas for the

NHRE. Field headquarters for the experiment were located near

Grover, Colo. Figure 10 is a more detailed NHRE map, showing the

special use airspace and the protected area as well as the mesonet and

rawinsonde site locations during the 1974 season.

6000

5000

RADAR RANGE 1

CHEYENNE

wyqMing

NEBRASKA

KIMBALL

'° SIDNEY

COLbRAD'O

/\! (

\ ' O " '

\ / I GREELEY

STERLING

^BOU

I

LOER^W V

DENVER

,-AKRON

I I I I

the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE) was conducted. NHRE field

headquarters were located near Grover, Colo. The two areas outlined between

Sterling and Kimball were the target areas for the seeding program in 1072

southern area) and in 1973 and 1974 (northern area). (From Wade, et al..

1977. )

Research Program," report to the Congress, U.S. General Accounting Office, B-133202,

Auk. 23. 1074. pp. 10-22.

60 Ibid., p. 20.

277

s

pecial Use Air

rti

h

5

5

\ SiDN£y\ r— i lODOEPOlE B

\^»r» ® E

-

1

E

» ,j

C

'k •

H N-AE FOLD

I * -E.OOU.HTEAS

E -o

d o«p*.'" *

Vt

|

J* °" ~

!*STE«ii«io

1

J*

LOCATIOh MAP

— fi

/

° h= T ,W. M.ES

Figure 10. — Detailed location map for the National Hail Research Experiment

(XHRE), showing the special use airspace and protected area, as well as the

mesonet and rawinsonde site locations during the 1974 summer season. (Cour-

tesy of the National Science Foundation.)

Following collaborative studies of northeast Colorado hailstorms

by NCAR, Colorado State University, and the U.S. Department of

Commerce during the period 1968-70, what was to become the National

Hail Research Experiment (XHRE) effectively began in the summer

season of 1970 with the following twofold plan :

1. To carry out research into those processes important to the under-

standing of hail production in severe thunderstorms, and

2. To perform a randomized test of a hail suppression technique

modelled in some important respects after the reportedly successful

operation in the Soviet Union.

The twofold objective of XHRE has remained throughout the proj-

ect : however, its statement has varied from year to year in response to

changes in emphasis both at XSF and at NCAR. In particular, after

transfer of the project to RAXX. an important emphasis was given

to social, economic, legal, and environmental studies in connection with

the potential impact of hail suppression.

A preliminary field program, for instrument testing and field experi-

ence, was undertaken during the summer of 1971 ; and during the

summers of 1972, 1973, and 1974 the major randomized hail sup-

pression test was conducted along with other basic research on hail

278

for the planned 5 years, it was curtailed at the close of the 1974 season

because research evidence showed strongly that seeding as performed

was not likely to suppress hail in northeast Colorado and preliminary

analysis indicated that data from 2 more years was unlikely to demon-

strate a suppression effect. 51 At a symposium on hail and hail suppres-

sion in the fall of 1975, 52 most of the experts agreed that continuation

of the 1972-74 randomized seeding experiment was unwise for the

reasons given above.

A revised plan for NHRE followed this symposium, in which it

was stated that future research should be directed "* * * to combine

applied research, development of techniques, and redesign of a ran-

domized seeding experiment in a manner which will provide the great-

est chance of reaching a conclusive answer as to the feasibility of hail

suppression in a reasonable time." 53 The revised plan also committed

the NHRE staff to completion of a report on the 1972-74 randomized

seeding experiment. The five-volume report, the first volume of which

is a summary of the analysis and results, has recently been completed

and distributed. 54

A short field season for NHRE was undertaken during 1975 to test

new instruments and a new data system aboard the South Dakota

School of Mines and Technology armored, penetrating T-28 aircraft.

Operated in coordination with the Grover S-band radar, the Grover

control center, and the aircraft tracking system, the test was successful

and valuable data were obtained. Field measurements were carried out

on a larger, more comprehensive scale during the summer of 1976 ; how-

ever, no seeding was done. 55 Analyses of data from previous years con-

tinued in 1976 and 1977. Field research in 1976 and succeeding analyses

were intended to assist in an improved design for a randomized seeding

experiment.

Highlights of the results obtained by intensive analysis of the data

obtained from NHRE through the 1975 summer field season have been

summarized by Downie and Dirks as follows : 56

1. The original techniques employed in NHRE were based on con-

cepts developed in the Soviet Union, which hypothesized that rapid

hail growth took place in local regions of liquid water accumulation

zones. A variety of observations has led to the rejection of the Soviet

model of hail formulation for northeast Colorado storms.

2. Observations within the clouds and examination of thin sections

of hailstones indicate that the iee-cryst a 1 -riming (graupel) process is

dominant rather than the waterdrop-coalescence mode of precipitation

formation.

D1 Ibid., pp. 3-4.

G2 National Center for Atmospheric Research. "NHRE Symposium/Workshop on Hail and

Its Suppression," Estes Park, Colo., Sept. 21-28, 1975. National Hail Research Experiment

technical report NCAR/7100 75/2. Boulder, Colo., November 1975 130 pp.

53 National Hail Research Experiment Staff, revised plan for the National Hail Research

Experiment. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., February 1976, p. 3.

"Crow. B. L., P. W. Summers A. B, Long, C. A. Knight, G. B. Foote, and J. E Dye. final

report — "National Hall Research Experiment : Randomized Seeding Experiment: 1972-74.

Vol. I. I<]xperimental Results and Overall Summary. " National Center for Atmospheric Re-

search. Boulder, Colo., December 1976. 260 pp. [Vols. II, III, IV, and V deal with precipita-

tion measurements, meteorological summary, radar summary, and hail declaration proce-

dures ;ind seeding operations, respectively.]

"University Corp. for Atmospheric Recearch. "Fiscal Year 1978 Work Plan for Analysis

of Data From the National Hail Research Experiment,** p. 3.

^Downie and Dirks, "National Science Foundation Weather Modification Program,"

1976, pp. 557-558.

279

3. Much effort was expended in the development of new instru-

ments of the characteristics of hail-producing storms which were

necessary to validate the concepts of hail suppression.

4. Eesults from the randomized seeding experiment, which was car-

ried out during the period 1972-74, do not permit one to conclude that

seeding had any effect on hail or rainfall. However, the data are ex-

tremely valuable for determining the required density and extent of

surface instruments for a future seeding experiment, as well as esti-

mating the length of time a future experiment would have to be carried

out to detect a specified effect.

5. Studies of direct economic costs and benefits have provided esti-

mates of the breakeven point for operational cloud seeding and reiter-

ated the value of hail suppression if reductions in damage of at least 10

percent are attainable.

Referring to the randomized seeding experiment, conducted from

1072 through 1974, the following conclusion was made in the final

report : At the outset, the total mass of hail at the ground in the target

area was identified as the primary response variable for evaluating

seeding effects on hailfall. The major conclusion of the experiment is

that no statistically significant effect of seeding is detected. This result