Science, and transportation united states senate

weather modification held at the National Center for Atmospheric

fosearcli, the question of identifying and measuring the economic

aspects of weather change was considered. An ideal weather pattern

model was proposed by Ackerman. 21 His concept was that the model

could be used to determine what weather elements mean to the sys-

tem of economic production and consumption in any given geograph-

ical area and to determine an ideal weather pattern within a given

system.

Although the quantification of such a model will require consider-

able research, the idea of being able to trace the impact of a given

weather shift throughout the economic system has merit.

A number of standard analytic tools are available for use in eco-

nomic analyses of weather changes. They include : input-output mod-

els, benefit-cost analysis, simulation, regression analysis, and linear

programing. All of these approaches have potential, but they all share

the problem of lack of basic data and understanding for quantification

of coefficients and parameters fundamental to their successful use. The

20 Ibid.

21 Ackerman. E. A.. 1966. "Economic Analysis of Weather : An Ideal Weather Pattern

Model." in Sewell, W.R.D., ed., 1966. "Human Dimensions of Weather Modification," Uni-

versity of Chicago, Department of Geography, research paper No. 105, pp. 61-75.

482

design of an input-output model has been described by Langford, 22

sociated with the application of benefit-cost analysis to weather modi-

fication issues.

It would appear that economists concerned with weather modifica-

tion programs are inclined to support the use of benefit-cost analysis

as a promising technique for determining comparative social costs and

benefits of such programs. A difficulty relates to the extensive geo-

graphic scope of weather modification programs compared to those

ordinarily assessed by benefit-cost analyses. In addition, there is little

data upon which to evaluate the economic consequences of large-scale

weather modification activities. For limited-scope weather modifi-

cation projects such as fog dispersal at airports and cloud seeding to

artificially induce rain in a small region, Maunder suggests that many

of the problems associated with benefit-cost analysis could be over-

come and the procedure readily adopted. 24 Based on an evaluation of

a study by Gutmanis and Goldner, Maunder summarized the principle

limitations on use of benefit-cost analysis for expansive weather mod-

ification programs as follows :

(1) The extensive geographic and functional scope of such

programs ;

(2) The difficulties in obtaining the necessary qualitative and

quantitative data;

(3) The difficulty resulting from the availability of several

possible technological approaches which may be employed in

varying degrees either singly or in combination ; and

(4) The difficulty in integrating and supporting benefit-cost

analysis with welfare economic theory.

Case Studies of the Economics of Weather Modification

hungry horse area, montana

Cloud seeding above the Hungry Horse area was conducted in 1951,

and again during the winters of 1954 through 1958, but these early ef-

forts did not provide an adequate data base for an economic assess-

ment. Then, in 1967, based on the results of a 1966-67 winter seeding

program, North American Weather Consultants estimated that run-

off in the region would be increased by 5 percent. 25 On tliis basis, it

was determined that an increase in energy production at all down-

stream power installations would total about 200,000,000 kWh per year,

with added power benefits of about $500,000 per year. Initial seeding

costs were estimated to be $300,000, with continuing costs of $75,000

to $100,000 per year.

-- Langford, T. W., 1968, "A Proposed Model for the Evaluation of Economic Aspects of

Weather Modification Programs for a System of Regions." in Sewell, W.K.D., et al., 1968,

"Human Dimensions of the Atmosphere." National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.,

pp. 113-120.

M Gutmanis, I. and Goldner. L., 1966. "Evaluation of Benefit-Cost Analysis as Applied

to Weather and Climate Modification. ' In Sewell, W.K.I)., ed., 1 *»<;♦;. "Human Dimensions

of Weather Modification." University of Chicago, Department of Geography, research paper

No. 105, pp. 111-12.-).

; -" Maunder, W. J. f "The Value of the Weather," Methuen & Co., Ltd., London, England,

1970.

sources Research Program in the Hungrv Horse Area. Montana," 1966—67, report No. 15-9,

North American Weather Consultants, Goleta, Calif., 1!m;7.

483

In a 1969 study, the Travelers Research Corp. estimated that run-

off from the entire Connecticut River basin might be increased by

about 2 million acre-feet (15 percent) per year through a weather

modification program. 26 It was calculated that this increment of water

would cost $2.30 per acre-foot, or $4,600,000 annually. The report also

stated that net benefits of $1,400,000 from municipal water supply,

and $2,600,000 from supply of cooling water for thermal electric gen-

erating stations and increased flow for hydroelectric power generation

might be realized by the 1980's. Other benefits which were not evalu-

ated include pollution abatement, agriculture, groundwater recharge,

flood control, and recreation. These are not all mutually compatible,

however. Travelers estimated that an average water supply increase

of only about 3 percent would permit the weather modification program

to pay for itself in approximately 15 years.

The Travelers study was based on the assumption that precipitation

from storms occurring during all seasons of the year would be in-

creased by 15 percent. Their benefit-cost analysis was based on average

conditions and did not account for variances in benefit-cost relation-

ships which would occur during wet or dry years.

STATE OF ILLINOIS

In a 1972 study of the impact of weather modification practices

on corn and soybean yields in Illinois, Huff and Changnon concluded

that in most regions of that State corn and soybean crops could be

benefited economically through a cloud-seeding program, provided

that precipitation increases of at least 10 percent were achieved. 27 It

was also stated that rainfall outputs from seeding operations would

have to be accurately defined or "more damage than benefit could

result."

The study showed that a good deal of variability could be expected

from year to year and that differential effects could be expected

in a significant percentage of years, that is, one crop might be helped

and another harmed.

These studies were based on the use of several seeding models for a

sampling period of 38 years and thus represent anticipated results

rather than findings based on observation.

NINE-COUNTY SOUTHEASTERN CROP REPORTING DISTRICT, SOUTH DAKOTA

A 1973 study by a special team at the Agricultural Experiment

Station of South Dakota State University 28 showed that increased

precipitation could have considerable direct and indirect effects on

the economy of a region by increasing crop yields. As yields increased,

total revenue rose rapidly, with costs remaining about the same. A

2« Travelers Research Corporation, "Water From the Skv," Hartford. Conn.. 1069.

v Huff, F. A. and Changnon. S. A., Jr., "Evaluation of Potential Effects of Weather Modi-

fication on Agriculture in Illinois," Journal of Applied Meteorology, pp. 377 to 3S4. Vol.

11. No. 2. March 1972.

as Agricultural experiment station special study team, "Effects of Additional Precipita-

tion on Agricultural Production, the Environment, the Economy and Human Society in

bouth Dakota," South Dakota State TJnivprsitv, Brookings, S. Dak., June 1973, pp. 113-12S.

484

For the nine-county Southeastern crop reporting district, historical

vields produced an annual total revenue of $211,200,000, total costs

of $145,700,000 and total profits of $65,450,000. These base data were

compared with the results of nine additional combinations of yields

and prices. Yields used were minimum, average and maximum ex-

pected increases and prices ranged from the historical average to 5-,

10- or 15-cent-per-bushel decreases for all marketable grains.

For the alternatives considered, total revenues ranged from

$2 13,100,000 to $234,200,000 and total costs were found to vary slightly

from the historic base value, with the highest total cost up only

$800,000. Total profits ranged up to $87,700,000 for the run using max-

imum expected yield increase and historical average prices. In this

case, profits increased 34 percent over the base. The lowest profit in-

crease, 3.1 percent, occurred for the combination of the lowest expected

yield increase and a 5-cent-per-bushel decrease in the price of market-

able grain (10- and 15-cent decreases per bushel in grain prices were

not run with the lowest expected yield increase) .

Indirect benefits were computed using a multiplier of 3.6 and were

found to be positively related to direct effects. This means that for each

SI added directly to the economy of the area, a $3.60 final effect on the

area's economy results. A manufacturing segment was not included in

the analysis and the study team noted that actual indirect benefits

might be somewhat higher as a result of this exclusion.

The direct costs of weather modification were found to be approxi-

mately 3.2 cents per acre and it was concluded that the direct costs

associated with additional precipitation would be much less than the

benefits which could be expected.

COLORADO RIVER

The most extensive economic analyses of weather modification prac-

tices have been of winter orographic snowpack augmentation

( WOSA) in the Colorado River Basin. Experimental results of cloud-

seeding operations in southwestern Colorado suggest that runoff in

the basin can be increased by about 20 to 25 percent. 29 ' 30 This would

result in an average annual increase of about 2.3 million acre-feet

( maf ) . An operational program to yield this flow would incur a direct

cost of about $5.4 million per year. 31

In an intensive study of snow enhancement in Colorado by the Stan-

ford Research Institute, Weisbecker specified two categories of eco-

nomic impacts. These are :

(1) Effects on the cloud-seeding target areas and those downwind

areas that might inadvertently be subjected to additional precipita-

tion; and (2) possible uses of the augmented water supply, whether in

the upper or lower basins, or outside the Colorado River Basin.

a Hurley, Patrick A., "Augmenting Colorado River by Weather Modification." Journal of

the Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE, vol. 94, No. IR4, Proc. Paper 6271, December

1968. pp. 303-380.

"WRudell. R. K.. Stockwell. H. T., and Walsh. R. G., "Weather Modification: An Economic

Alternative for Augmenting Water Supplies," Water Resources Bulletin, vol. 9, No. 1, Feb-

v 1977. pp. 11;5-128.

Weisbecker, Leo W.. "Technology Assessment of Winter Orographic Snowpack Augmen-

tation in the Upper Colorado River Basin," summary report, Stanford Research Institute,

Menlo Park, Calif., May 1972, pp. 13-19.

485

stated:

exception of the possible advantages that extra snowfall, particularly at the

beginning of the season, might bring to operators of ski resorts and their patrons.

Although the impact on the upland grazing industry appears to be negligible,

increased costs of mining operations and timber cutting (and possible suspension

of activities) ; interference with road, rail, and air transport; and shortening

of the tourist season would all have repercussions of an unfavorable sort on the

economies of a number of small towns, particularly in western Colorado.

Weisbecker commented that measurement of the extent of these

effects was not possible on the basis of published information and that

extensive field work would be required to adequately assess local eco-

nomic injury. A rough annual estimate of these costs was given as $2

million in the basin and $1 million out of the basin, which is about

equivalent to $1 per acre-foot of water produced. Adding these costs to

direct costs of cloud seeding and costs of avalanche control, flood fore-

casting, and environmental monitoring programs, produced an esti-

mate of the cost of water produced of less than $3 per acre-foot. Weis-

becker noted, "This is still a very inexpensive way of providing extra

water in the Colorado River Basin."

It was also found that, although there might be significant costs on a

local or regional basis, the small-scale of the economies and the few

people affected adversely would assure that the national economic

effects would be negligible.

The report concluded that :

If only existing facilities are used to store and distribute water and generate

power, benefits of at least $7.8 million annually could be generated in-basin and

S5 million annually by out-of-basin spillover runoff. Of the $12.8 million total

annual benefits, $6.2 million is accounted for by electric power generation. This

use of WOSA provides the least equivocal form of benefits for an operational

program. On this basis, it appears that the benefits of an operational program

could exceed the sum of the direct costs and indirect costs to the areas of origin

in the upper basin.

It was also noted that, "WOSA is an inexpensive method of aug-

menting the water supply in the Colorado River Basin." Annual oper-

ating costs for the WOSA system were estimated at about $5.4 mil-

lion, giving an average cost of $2.37 per acre-foot for in-basin runoff

alone and $1.58 per acre-foot overall.

In another study of the economic aspects of WOSA. Rudell et al.

found that "weather modification is an economically feasible means

to provide additional water for the Colorado River Basin." 32 The

principal findings of their study are given below :

1. The benefit-cost ratio varies with place of water use. It was esti-

mated to be 13.1 to 1 for Arizona, 16.3 to 1 for New Mexico, and 21.3

to 1 for California.

2. Compared with other recognized means of augmenting water

supplies, weather modification appears to be one of the least-cost alter-

natives. Direct costs of $0.91 to $1.15 per acre-foot of water produced

were reported. Indirect costs of additional snow removal and loss of

personal income due to mine closings were estimated to add $0.15 to

32 Rudell. R. K.. Stockwell. H. T., and Walsh. R. G.. "Weather Modification : An Economic

Alternative for Augmenting Water Supplies," Water Resources Bulletin, vol. 9, No. 1, Feb-

ruary 1977, pp. 115-128.

486

$0.19 per acre-foot. Extra market costs due to traffic delays caused

3. Only about 12.4 percent of weather modification costs is for capi-

tal construction, making the program easily reversible with little loss

of sunk costs.

4. Variable costs of operation are about $975 per day. Thus small

increases in daily precipitation would cover the direct costs of

operation.

5. Water by weather modification is worth $2 per acre-foot for

power production and $14.50 to $26.50 per acre-foot for irrigation of

forage crops. If the additional water is used for higher valued crop

production, or for domestic and/or industrial purposes, its value is

even greater.

6. Extra market values associated with weather modification could

include travel delays, grazing and timber rescheduling, and changes

in plant and animal communities. While such factors have little effect

on the total costs of weather modification, they may be very important

to those directly affected and could influence decisions to initiate

weather modification projects.

Conclusions

The state of the art of operational weather modification programs

is such that meaningful economic evaluation of such activities is lim-

ited to special, localized cases. As stated by Crutchfield. 33 there is a

need for substantially greater knowledge of: "(1) the processes that

we seek to alter; (2) the methods through which that alteration can

be achieved ; and (3) the extent to which the resulting effects can be

anticipated in time, space and degree."

Nevertheless, the economic potentialities are very attractive. Oper-

ating costs of cloud seeding are very small, ranging from 5 to 20 cents

per acre of target area, and the needed capital equipment is relatively

inexpensive. The few economic studies which are available suggest

possible benefit-cost ratios ranging upward to 20 to l. 34

33 Crutchfield. James A., "Weather Modification : The Economic Potential." draft of pap?r

prepared for Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, Univer-

sity of Washington, Seattle. Wash., May 1977.

^Fleagle, R. G., Crutchfield, J. A., Johnson, R. W., and Abdo, M. F., "Weather Modifica-

tion in the Public Interest," University of Washington Press, Seattle, Wash., 1973, pp.

31-40.

CHAPTER 13

(By William C. Jolly. Analyst, Environment and Natural Resources Policy

Division, Congressional Research Service)

Introduction

modification of weather and climate

"Weather and climate are major factors in human activity. Even

when human communities have adapted themselves reasonably well

to the climate of a region, temporary deviations from the normal —

severe storms, droughts, unseasonable frosts — periodically cause acute

monetary loss and personal suffering. Weather modification is thus

an age-old dream. Research on atmospheric processes has apparently

brought man to the threshold of realizing that dream, at least in

part." 1

Written nearly a decade ago, those words still succinctly capture

the "why" and the status of planned weather modification efforts. It

is axiomatic that weather modification actions which impact human

communities also impact natural communities in the ecosystems of

which both are but components. This chapter seeks to briefly address

the ecological implications of planned and inadvertent weather modi-

fication in target and nontarget areas, and to review with respect to

those implications the level of understanding which several investi-

gations in the last decade have sought to advance.

It is the function of this chapter to summarize the current state

of knowledge about ecological effects of weather modification and to

do so for a general, not a specialist, audience. Accordingly, the chap-

ter represents the author's distillation of salient findings of others

rather than any original contribution of either ideas or research.

ECOLOGY AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

At the risk of merely restating what by now may have become com-

monly known, if not obvious, it can be said that ecology is generally

defined as the study of the relationship between living organisms and

their environments (including both living and nonliving components

thereof). That is, ecology deals both with organisms in their environ-

ment and with the processes of movement of energy and matter which

link organisms and place. Ecological systems — the subject matter of

ecology and the structure and function of which the ecologist seeks

1 Charles F. Cooper and William C. Jolly. Ecological effects of weather modification : a

problem analysis, Ann Arbor : University of Michigan, School of Natural Resources, 1969,

p. 1.

(487)

to study and understand — are definable complexes of related biotic

assemblages of animals, plants, and microbes together with their par-

ticular abiotic, chemico-physical environments. As Kormondy lias

noted:

Ecosystems are real — like a pond, or a field, a forest, an ocean, or even an

developed from a knowledge of real systems. In spite of the great diversity in

types of actual ecosystems — from small to large, terrestrial to fresh water to

marine, field to laboratory — and in spite of the unique combinations of par-

ticular abiotic and biotic components in any particular one, they have in com-

mon certain general structural and functional attributes that are recognizable,

analyzable, and predictable. 2

In seeking to understand what changes in plant and animal com-

munities may result from any given modification in weather which

man might effect deliberately, it is to the young evolving science of

ecology and to ecologists that decisionmakers turn for best judgments

in interpreting the relationships which may be affected and, in some

cases, actually predicting the nature and magnitude of ecological

effects which can be expected.

It must be borne in mind that ecological systems require a knowledge

of both past and present in order to predict the future. Also, ecology

is not independent of time and place, so broad generalizations are not

easily nor accurately made. Thus, while descriptive ecology is well-

developed, truly predictive ecology is but in its infancy.

KNOWLEDGE OF ECOLOGICAL OIPLICATIONS OF APPLIED WEATHER MODI-

FICATION TECHNOLOGIES

If 1946 can be taken as the benchmark year for "modern" weather

modification technology (when GE scientists Langmuir and Schaefer

successfully modified clouds by "seeding" them with pellets of dry ice) ,

1966 can be said to mark the explicit recognition that environmental