Science Plan for Arctic System Modeling a report by the Arctic research community for the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs
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- Arctic System Model implementation timeline
- Mid-term objectives (years 3-5)
FundingAlthough reaching this goal will require the synthesis of efforts from a diverse and widely distributed sets of research teams, it is still necessary to identify dedicated funding to support this program. Arctic science has advanced greatly in the past decade to bring us to the point of realizing an ASM as an achievable goal, but many collaborative and parallel efforts are needed to carry an ASM through to completion (Figure 4). Investments are needed to enhance existing capabilities (particularly computer facilities) that must be committed to ASM analyses. Certain processes are not yet fully understood (particularly the quantitative relationships involved in feedbacks) and this understanding must be advanced to enable correct algorithm development. Rapid advancements and contributions to the science behind an ASM are being accomplished throughout the world, however a focused program of synthesis and coordination is necessary to ensure the efficiencies of collaboration are realized. We require continued support for on-going model development, and in some cases enhanced support of model components that are more primitive in their development. With consideration of the state of the science and the accomplishments required to reach completion, we anticipate a required investment of $50M over ten years. We expect this will be a multi-national program and within the U.S., multi-agency support is necessary and appropriate considering the broad mandate of the research needed and broad applicability of the final products. Arctic System Model implementation timelineA summarized timeline for the ASM program is provided in Figure 18, and a more detailed explanation is provided here. Short-term objectives (years 0-3)Short-term objectives for the development of an ASM are ones which are likely attainable within 3 years, and are listed as those that can take place prior to the availability of significant funding and those that will begin once funding is available. Short-term objectives that can begin prior to the availability of significant funding:
Work on several of the short-term objectives identified above has already begun. Research activities pertinent to eventual development of an ASM are already ongoing through currently funded projects, including the development of a core ASM that includes atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land component models. The development of this science plan has occurred following two ASM workshops in Fairbanks, AK in August 2007 and Boulder, CO in May 2008 and with broad community feedback. The workshops have served to galvanize a core ASM community, and have entrained both national and international partners. It is hoped that this science plan will provide sufficient guidance for the eventual development of announcements of opportunity for ASM development. Short-term objectives that can begin once funding for an ASM is available:
Once funding for a dedicated ASM effort becomes available it is expected that rapid progress can be made towards meeting the goals outlined in this report. Key to that rapid progress will be the establishment of a management infrastructure that will facilitate coordination among ASM participants and will provide needed support services, such as software engineering. Given that development of a core ASM is already on-going it is expected that a core ASM will be available by the time funding for a coordinated ASM effort is available, or shortly thereafter. Initial scientific objectives, as outlined in the phased implementation section of this report, will be able to take advantage of the newly developed core ASM and should be able to provide early successes and publicity for the ASM effort. Simultaneous to this effort work should also progress on development and incorporation of additional component models into the core ASM, while all components of the ASM should be continually improved through careful model evaluation with available observations and process studies. Mid-term objectives (years 3-5)Mid-term objectives that can begin once a core ASM is established:
Objectives for the mid-term timeframe (3-5 years) will include the on-going implementation of new component models, including biogeochemical and ecosystem components and others depending on their state of readiness. Downscaled projections of Arctic System behavior will be made using standard future scenarios from the IPCC and driven by global climate system model output. Uncoupled (off-line) simulations of emergent component models, such as a coastal erosion module, with forcing from the ASM downscaling runs will be performed both to assess readiness of these components for coupling to the ASM and provide insight into their future Arctic behavior. Nesting capabilities for the core ASM components within global models will be implemented and tested, providing further insight into downscaled Arctic system functioning. The mid-term ASM activities will also include observing system experiments that will aid in observing system design and provide a direct link to the Arctic observational communities. Directory: presentations presentations -> Enterprise Network Management iPost: Implementing Continuous Risk Monitoring at the Department of State presentations -> O. P. Singh saarc meteorological Research Centre (smrc) presentations -> Plotting learning presentations -> Friends/Partners in Aviation Weather presentations -> The potential of zakat scheme as an alternative of microcredit to alleviate poverty in Bangladesh presentations -> Managing Millennials presentations -> The Value of Modeling and Simulation Standards presentations -> Assessing the stability and resilience of islamic banks through stress testing under standardized approach of the ifsb capital adequacy framework presentations -> Background of vietnam ict data collection and dissemination number of telecoms, internet service providers presentations -> Guide for applicants Download 195.64 Kb. Share with your friends:
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