Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File



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AT: Indian Economy



Indian economy resilient – flexible and resilient to shocks and good advisors

Suman Berry (director general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)) 2008: Indian economy more resilient than its peers. http://profit.ndtv.com/2008/12/14212412/Indian-economy-more-resilient.html

Terming the global financial crisis as unprecedented in scale and complexity, Suman Berry, director general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), said despite openness, the Indian economy is far more resilient since it allows for rapid adjustment. He exuberates confidence in the way the team of experienced policy makers is handling the situation. In an exclusive chat with noted economist Ila Patnaik, Berry talks about the global economic crisis, Raghuram Rajan Committee report and financial sector reforms.

NDTV: The US economy entered a recession in December 2007, as a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research said. The latest export figures from India have shown a sudden sharp decline. Do you think the Indian economy has the resilience to weather crisis?


Berry: What is unprecedented is the pace of deteriorating global economy. This kind of development at national level is also unprecedented. As former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Bimal Jalan said, “God does look after India” which is because we once again have a very experience team be it the PM, outgoing FM, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman, to take care of economy. The Indian economy has been through ups and downs at various stages and it has survived very well. But what is remarkable about India is that we seem somehow to emerge as a much more resilient economy post liberalisation.

AT: India Iran Conflict



No conflict – Inida sees Iran as a stepping stone to global aspirations, especially against Pakistan, and Iran sees India as a shield against the rest of the world.

C. Christine Fair (senior research associate at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the Unites States Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C.) 2007: India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act. www.twq.com/07summer_fair-1.pdf.

Despite episodically coming under pressure for its ties with Tehran, India sees broad relations with Iran, not just on energy agreements, as supporting its growing global aspirations. India wants to be seen by others as an emerging global power having security interests apart from its intractable security competition with Pakistan. Keeping with its extraregional interests, New Delhi has promulgated a “look east” policy to develop and sustain a multifaceted presence in Central Asia, setting up air bases in Tajikistan and expanding its footprint in Iran and Afghanistan. India eyes Central Asia as an important element of its efforts to diversify its energy needs. Moreover, it wants to expand its presence in this prized geography to deny Pakistan its much-sought strategic depth. Iran offers India a unique asset that is fundamental to New Delhi’s power projection aspirations: geographical proximity and access to these various countries.

Apart from India’s aspirations, bilateral ties between the two are moored by an expansive set of shared interests and objectives. First, both states are uncomfortable with a unipolar world – a euphemism for U.S. predominance – and with the role that the United States has played and will likely continue to play in the Middle East, particularly its military interventions in Iraq and possibly Iran. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukkherjee, during high-level meetings in Tehran in February 2007, reiterated New Delhi’s position that the nuclear impasse cannot be resolved through military means and demands “dialogue, howsoever strenuous it may be.”
No conflict – Inida needs energy from Iran, and Iran needs a new market

C. Christine Fair (senior research associate at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the Unites States Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C.) 2007: India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act. www.twq.com/07summer_fair-1.pdf.



Iran and India have an explicit interest in advancing commercial and energy ties. With the world’s third-largest reserve of oil and second-largest proven reserve of gas, Iran is anxious to get its hydrocarbons out of the ground and into new markets, while energy-starved India wants access to those resources. Despite this confluence of interests, however, progress on the energy relationship has been slow, with Iranian crude oil accounting for a mere 7.5 percent of India’s total crude imports.

AT: Indian Space Race



India has no capabilities to develop space technology. No risk of escalation.

Chellaney 7 (Brahma. "India's Vulnerability Bared." Japan Times. February 9, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM

Before it can think of developing a counter-capability to shield itself from an ASAT menace, it will have to deal with two obtrusive mismatches that hobble its deterrence promise. The first mismatch is between its satellite and launch capabilities. Greater operational capability necessitates large satellites. While India has first-rate satellite-manufacturing expertise, it still needs a foreign commercial launcher like the Ariane 5 of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company to place its INSAT-4 series satellites in geostationary orbit. The second mismatch is in the military realm -- between the technical sophistication to build nuclear warheads and the extent to which they can be delivered reliably by missiles. Nearly a decade after it went overtly nuclear and almost a quarter-century after the missile program launch, India still lacks the full reach against China. The thermonuclear warhead India tested with a controlled yield in 1998 still awaits a delivery vehicle of the right payload range.
India lacks infrastructure, funding, and planning to implement any space programs.

Asia Times 8 ("India goes to war in space.". June 18, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM

India's expression of its intentions to set up an aerospace command and its announcement of the Integrated Space Cell has raised concern in some quarters that India is entering the arms race in space. Such fears might be premature, given that the Integrated Space Cell is at a very rudimentary stage. "India is just putting in place a very minimal budget initiative that will take several years to develop," argued Prabhakar. "Besides satellites in space, India's space architecture of offensive and defensive systems are yet to be conceived, built and deployed," said Prabhakar, pointing to the different kinds of satellites, space-based laser systems, space stations and ground-based laser stations for offensive space operations that the "space superpowers" - the United States, Russia and China - have.
India doesn’t have rudimentary defense capabilities – space is a long way away.

Asia Times 8 ("India goes to war in space.". June 18, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM

In the event of their satellites being knocked out by enemy action during a crisis, the US, Russia and China have the capability to launch substitute satellites into space at short notice. The US can move its satellites from one orbit level to another, higher level to escape being taken out by an enemy anti-satellite system (ASAT). India can program a satellite launch only on a programmed sequence basis and not on short notice for rapid launches to replenish lost satellites, Prabhakar said. "India doesn't have even preliminary capability to defend its satellites," he said, adding "it will take another 15 to 20 years or more before India can put these systems in place." For all its impressive achievements in building and launching satellites, India is decades away from establishing a fully-operational aerospace command. It has formidable capability in building satellites. It is now trying to find a way to defend them.



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