Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File



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AT: South China Sea War



South China Sea war won’t escalate

Scobell, phd, strategic studies institute, 01 [ Dr, Andrew, “The Rise of China: Security Implications”, http://www.sanford.duke.edu/centers/tiss/pubs/documents/TheRiseofChina.pdf]

The South China Sea presents a very different kind of flashpoint --one quite unlikely to be the location of a major conflict. Most of the disputed islands there are uninhabited and remote, and rival claimants to the area all have very limited power projection capabilities. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei are among the states that claim some or all of the reefs, islets, and atolls that dot the area. China has the largest and most insistent claim. Beijing is very concerned with the sea lanes of communication and the natural resources of the region. China is increasingly dependent on Middle East oil that is shipped via the Strait of Malacca and through the South China Sea. Moreover, China is keen on tapping the fisheries and any energy reserves discovered in the area. Other nonmilitary security threats to the area are piracy--some estimates put about half of the world's pirates operating in the region. Environmental issues could exacerbate regional tensions and possibly lead to limited hostilities, but these are unlikely to escalate or directly involve the United States in a war.

AT: South Korean Diplomacy



Despite hiccups, South Korean diplomacy is effective now

Chapman 05. Editor of the Midweek. (Don Chapman, “Why the World Needs South Korea Diplomacy to Succeed,” Midweek, August 1, 2005, http://www.midweek.com/content/columns/editorsdesk_article/why_the_world_needs_south_korean_diplomacy_to_succeed/)

South Korea Diplomacy good now, even with difficult North Korea. Chapman 2005A person we can refer to only as a “very high ranking official at the U.S. embassy” told us, “South Koreans are very highly skilled at diplomacy.” And certainly he’s right — through diplomacy the South has been able to bring Kim Jung-Il back to the bargaining table at the Six-Party Talks. This has been no easy task in dealing with a neighbor, a cousin, which a Korea expert at Camp Smith refers to as a “mafia regime” for it’s involvement in the trafficking of humans, drugs and arms, and the production of counterfeit currencies (at which it excels). But South Korea diplomacy has achieved what many though impossible, not just bringing the North back to the table, but also creating for the first time since 1945 a growing sense of trust on the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps there’s no greater sign of Korea’s diplomacy potential than the behind-the-scenes work of Park Sun-Won, senior director of the Office of Strategic Planning at the National Security Office. The other gentleman we met who would be part of the Six-Party Talks, he briefed us at the Blue House — South Korea’s White House — press center. Although Mr. Park was too modest to say so, he was the one who, before his Foreign Secretary met with Kim Jong-Il, asked him to urge the North’s dictator to refer to President Bush for the first time as “Mr. Bush.” Similarly, he suggested to President Roh Moo-hyun that during his June visit to Washington he ask Bush and Vice President Cheney to tone down the hawkish axis-of-evil rhetoric. Both Bush and Kim followed through, and thus were both lured back to the Six-Party Talks and — perhaps more important — to bilateral talks behind the scenes. On such small building blocks can a peace be constructed. And that is why I think diplomacy could be the greatest export of the “Korean Wave” — far more important than all the Korean TV soaps and dramas, more than all the cool technology of Samsung. One day, I hope, the world will look back from the perspective of a unified, democratic Korea and remember South Korean diplomacy as one of the positive forces for peace in the early 21st Century. It certainly has that potential — one carrot, one stick, one changed POV at a time.

AT: South Korean Econ



South Korean economy is reactive to global trends- proves it’s not a front runner

Business and Technology Report 10 [May 1, http://www.biztechreport.com/story/440-high-tech-and-educated-labor-force-will-take-korea-top-next-decade]

Q: What are the important problems the Korean economy is facing today and what are your solutions to those problems? A: South Korea is an export-based economy. When the international market isn't good, our exports decrease, but when the international market is vitalized, our exports also increase. So we need to make some changes to the export-based economy. The international market is in a period of recovery, so it wouldn't be a great hardship for us to change our export-based economy, however, in order for South Korea to be of help to the international economic recovery, we need to develop our domestic market as well. We need a new economic policy that can create a harmonious balance between our export-based economy and our domestic economy.
South Korean economy resilient- strongest Asian tiger

Roach and Lam 10 [Stephen, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Lam, Korea and Taiwan Economist at Morgan Stanley April 27, The Business Times Singapore, Lexis]

SOUTH Korea sailed through the 2008-09 financial crisis with remarkable aplomb. Despite its heavy reliance on exports, South Korea registered only a single-sequential quarterly decline in real GDP during the global downturn, thus avoiding full-fledged recession. By the third quarter of 2009, South Korean growth had bounced back to nearly 3 per cent while unemployment - which even in the worst of the crisis never rose more than a single percentage point - had already begun to ease. Indeed, it took barely three quarters for South Korea's production and consumption to regain pre-crisis levels. Among Asia's 'tiger-economies' South Korea suffered least from the crisis and recovered the most rapidly. Why was the South Korean economy so resilient? Because its businesses and government leaders recognised the opportunity this crisis presented. The familiar rap on South Korea is that its economy is 'stuck in the middle', trapped between an advanced Japan and a rising China. South Korea's great dilemma - or so it's often said - is that it falls short of Japan on quality and can't hope to match China on price. And yet South Korean producers' performance in the wake of the financial crisis suggests the middle ground may offer advantages. In the post-crisis era, consumers the world over have turned cautious. The new mantra is value for money. South Korean companies are well positioned to capitalise on that new ethos with products that optimise the quality and price trade-off. South Korean exporters have, in fact, gained market share during the crisis. South Korea's global market share in phone handsets, for example, rose to 33 per cent in the third quarter of 2009, from 22 per cent at the end of 2007. In fact, in the US market alone, South Korean mobile phones are currently taking up almost 50 per cent of the market share. Its LCD-TV global market share also jumped to 37 per cent in 2009, from 27 per cent at the end of 2007, and it will soon replace Japan as the world's number-one LCD-TV supplier. South Korea's automobile global market share climbed to 9 per cent in the third quarter of 2009, from 6.5 per cent in the final period of 2007.
South Korean government deals effectively with econ crisis.

Roach and Lam 5/10 (Stephen and Sharon, writers for the Joong Ang Daily, [http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2920179] AD: 6/22/10)JM

South Korea sailed through the 2008-09 financial crisis with remarkable aplomb. Despite its heavy reliance on exports, South Korea registered only a single sequential quarterly decline in real GDP during the global downturn, thus avoiding full-fledged recession. By the third quarter of 2009, South Korean growth had bounced back to nearly 3 percent while unemployment - which even in the worst of the crisis never rose more than a single percentage point - had already begun to ease. Indeed, it took barely three quarters for South Korea’s production and consumption to regain pre-crisis levels. Among Asia’s “tiger economies,” South Korea suffered least from the crisis and recovered the most rapidly. Why was the South Korean economy so resilient? Because its businesses and government leaders recognized the opportunity this crisis presented. The familiar rap on South Korea is that its economy is “stuck in the middle,” trapped between an advanced Japan and a rising China. South Korea’s great dilemma - or so it’s often said - is that it falls short of Japan on quality and can’t hope to match China on price.



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