Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File



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AT: Sri Lankan Economy



Sri Lankan economy resilient – more basic economy curbs financial crises

Barry Rider (Professor @ University of Cambridge, whose academic interests include development studies and finance law) 2009: The most striking feature of the Sri Lankan Economy is its Resillience-Prof. Barry Rider. http://www.lankanewspapers.com/news/2009/1/38501_space.html



Q. With regard to this regulation debate, what is your assessment of Sri Lankan banks and financial institutions?
A. I think Sri Lanka has been resilient in many ways. The economy is surprisingly robust given the demands that have been made particularly in recent years. For a variety of reasons, Sri Lanka is better off than most economies and financial systems in facing what the world has had to face. When one looks at the obsession with regulation and law in Britain, it was only a month ago that the City of London launched a new centre to make available the British expertise in financial regulation around the world. Now look at it it`s a laughing stock. It`s not just a question of bad management, I think it borders on the criminal, and certainly falls into the category of reckless conduct. There was this obsession with greed and the bonus culture that permeated the city of London and the incompetence in the regulatory bodies. You don`t have any of those problems. You don`t have them at the level that we`ve got in the UK.
Q. In the past, when one spoke of credit in Sri Lanka, the discussion always tended to centre on red tape all the things the local banks used to insist on in order to grant businesses credit. Would you see this red tape as a positive feature of Sri Lankan financial institutions?
A. Well I`m sure the red tape was not there solely to inhibit the banks from making the kind of investment decisions that banks elsewhere have made. But it has undoubtedly served as a protection. Banks in Sri Lankan for a variety of reasons have not been willing or able to engage in some of the highly speculative and quite clearly irresponsible investment that banks in the west have.
Q. What is the most striking feature of the Sri Lankan economy to you at this particular moment?
A. It`s the resilience. A country such as yours that can fund an expensive albeit necessary war, and at the same time be able to reclaim land as you have been doing around Colombo, and engage in the kind of infrastructure development that is taking place I think, is very good. Economists are like lawyers its not in their nature to agree about things so perhaps there would be different perspectives on this. But as a simple lawyer, it seems to me that you have a resilient economy. Of course it`s going to be affected by the downturn one has only to speak to someone in business to see that. But it could well be that you are in a much better position to weather the storm than many other countries. You do not see in Sri Lanka anything near the panic and concern that you see in the United Kingdom.
Q. What do you ascribe this resilience to?
A. Well, it`s a different kind of economy. I do not know what the figures are in terms of people having access to banking facilities in Sri Lanka and the kind of money that they would keep in deposits. But certainly in the United Kingdom, there is a very real fear. Now the British government has placed itself in a position where it has to guarantee retail bank accounts. But before that, people were running around spreading their money around various deposit taking organizations and there is a very real lack of confidence in the UK. I live in Cambridge which wouldn`t suggest itself as a vulnerable town in the United Kingdom but one just has to go around to see the number of shops vacant. One does not see that in Sri Lanka because effectively in a more basic economy, risk is spread more widely. I spend quite a lot of my time in the Phillippines and the reason why the people there are less vulnerable than the people in Europe is because income comes from a number of sources and only some of those sources are accounted for in the statistics. So there it is possible to economise and adjust in a time of downturn in a way that is not possible in more sophisticated and regimented societies.

AT: State Economies/Budgets



States are resilient and municipal bonds aren’t key

Alwine 2009-Chris Alwine is head of Vanguard's municipal bond fund operations, August 18, 2009 “Will state budget woes drag on municipal bonds?” https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/audio/IC-municipal-bonds-08122009

In our opinion, the likelihood of a state defaulting is very low. Historically, municipals have had low default rates because of their essentiality. They're ongoing concerns, generally not subject to competition. They also have the ability to raise taxes and fees, and have also shown the political will to make difficult decisions by either raising taxes or cutting spending when challenges are present. In addition, states are large issuers of debt and rely on market access. So any action that would prevent access to the market would seem very unlikely, in our mind.


Other options for states to balance their budgets

Alwine 2009-Chris Alwine is head of Vanguard's municipal bond fund operations, August 18, 2009 “Will state budget woes drag on municipal bonds?” https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/audio/IC-municipal-bonds-08122009

Well, states have a number of actions they could take to balance their budgets. The first is simply to cut spending; the second would be to raise taxes; third is to tap the reserve funds; and fourth is to rely on federal stimulus money, which amounts to about $150 billion through 2011. These actions should generally be sufficient to balance the budgets in this fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2010. The focus will then turn to fiscal-year 2011 and 2012, where a number of the one-shots will be at a smaller level. Our expectation is for fiscal challenges to remain for the coming years; but it's also worth noting that, as the economy recovers, revenue should increase—lessening the budgetary strain.


States and federal governments will do anything to prevent defaults

Gelinas 2010-Nicole Gelinas is the Searle Freedom Trust Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal, July 15, 2010“Beware the Muni-Bond Bubble”

http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_2_municipal-bonds.html



The financial crisis has exploded plenty of long-held beliefs, including the idea that mortgage debt is a risk-free investment. But nothing has shaken the articles of faith that underpin another massive debt market: municipal bonds. Investors in municipal bonds don’t have to worry about a thing, the thinking goes, because the states and cities that issue them will do anything to avoid reneging on their obligations—and even if they fail, surely Washington will step in and save investors from big losses.



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