Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- AT: Swine Flu 2/2
- 4. The Swine Flu won’t turn into the Spanish flu of 1918 there are too many safeguards.
- AT: Syrian WMD Use
- 2. Syria fears Israeli retaliation too much
Michael Fumento. June 19, 2009. (Director of the Washington, D. C.-based Independent Journalism Project, where he specializes in science and health issues. “The WHO’s Fabricated Pandemic” http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/06/19/michael-fumento-the-who-s-fabricated-pandemic.aspx)A global flu pandemic is a "when, not an if." So the World Health Organization (WHO) has been crying for five years. Now it can boast it was right. Problem is, the mildest pandemics of the 20th century killed at least a million people worldwide, and old-fashioned seasonal flu strikes every nation yearly, killing an estimated 250,000 to 500,000. But only 144 people had succumbed to H1N1 swine flu when the WHO declared its pandemic -- far less than seasonal flu's daily toll. Further, in Mexico, where the outbreak began and where it has been the most severe, cases had already peaked. AT: Swine Flu 2/23. Swine flu will not cause extinction-two reasons.a. missing a molecular signature b. cross-reactive immunities Peter Palese 05-02-09 (chairman of the department of microbiology at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York., “Why Swine Flu Isn’t So Scary”, The Wall Street Journal) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124122223484879119.html SMBStill, there is more evidence that a serious pandemic is not imminent. In 1976 there was an outbreak of an H1N1 swine virus in Fort Dix, N.J., which showed human-to-human transmission but did not go on to become a highly virulent strain. This virus was very similar to regular swine influenza viruses and did not show a high affinity for the human host.Although the swine virus currently circulating in humans is different from the 1976 virus, it is most likely not more virulent than the other seasonal strains we have experienced over the last several years. It lacks an important molecular signature (the protein PB1-F2) which was present in the 1918 virus and in the highly lethal H5N1 chicken viruses. If this virulence marker is necessary for an influenza virus to become highly pathogenic in humans or in chickens -- and some research suggests this is the case -- then the current swine virus, like the 1976 virus, doesn't have what it takes to become a major killer. Since people have been exposed to H1N1 viruses over many decades, we likely have some cross-reactive immunity against the swine virus. While it may not be sufficient to prevent illness, it may very well dampen the impact of the virus on mortality. I would postulate that by virtue of this "herd immunity," even a 1918-like H1N1 virus could never have the horrific effect it had in the past. The most likely outcome is that the current swine virus will become another (fourth) strain of regular seasonal influenza. 4. The Swine Flu won’t turn into the Spanish flu of 1918 there are too many safeguards.Richard Martin. May 2, 2009. (St. Petersburg Times Staff Writer. “From swine flu to bubonic plague, epidemics have always stirred fear and terror” http://www.tampabay.com/news/health/medicine/article997373.ece)Alcabes sees no point in panicking. He and other scientists say it's false reasoning to imagine a reprise of the 1918 Spanish flu because there are now public health systems and agencies that make it their business to track the flu and educate the public on appropriate prevention measures. In a paper titled "Panic In Place of Public Health," Alcabes cited the two flu pandemics that have occurred since 1918 — in 1957 and 1968 — that resulted in far fewer deaths. And he added that if the Spanish flu had happened today instead of 1918, the number of deaths would have been limited by medical advances such as the timely use of antibiotics to treat secondary infections. Siegel agreed, pointing to the ability to discover viruses just as they're emerging. That's a new tool, he said. But with that comes a lot of responsibility. "One thing that hasn't occurred is learning a new language to describe risk so that we don't scare everybody," he said. AT: Syrian WMD Use1. Even the worst case Syrian use of WMD would only be a minor irritantElkis, 07 - Special to Defense and the National Interest (Adam, “Sideshow in the Desert”, 10/22, http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/sideshow_in_the_desert.htm) Needless to say, history has shown that such a development would be detrimental to Israeli national security. War with Syria also remains a possibility, due to continuing poor relations. In the event of war, Damascus’s aging Soviet hardware would not pose a serious threat to Israeli forces, but the regime could conceivably employ commando teams, ballistic missiles possibly armed with chemical weapons, newly acquired anti-tank weapons, and guerrilla networks in an attempt to draw out such a conflict until the Israeli public loses the will to win. Yet, as Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) fellow Anthony H. Cordesman noted in a report on Syrian military capabilities, Damascus’ asymmetric capabilities would be little than an “irritant” in the face of vastly superior Israeli firepower. 2. Syria fears Israeli retaliation too muchDiab, 97 - Syrian-born international security analyst living in London (Zuhair, The Nonproliferation Review, Fall, “SYRIA’S CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: ASSESSING CAPABILITIES AND MOTIVATIONS”, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol05/51/diab51.pdf) Israeli doctrine makes it unlikely that Syria would ini-tiate chemical warfare at the start of a conflict, but it does not eliminate the possibility of a Syrian missile strike with conventional warheads against Israeli military tar-gets such as airfields, mobilization centers, and rear ech-elons. Another disincentive for a Syrian resort to chemical warfare is that it might invite Israeli retaliation in-kind. Unlike Israel, Syria has not equipped its entire civilian population with gas masks, which to some ex-tent would blunt the strategic impact of these weapons. Despite these disincentives for strategic CW use, how-ever, rational calculations could well be overwhelmed by emotions once war breaks out. 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