Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
No impact – Musim brotherhood is moderate, not radical
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- AT: Egyptian Instability 2/2
2. No impact – Musim brotherhood is moderate, not radicalLeiken and Brooke ‘7 (Robert, Director of the Immigration and National Security Program, and Steven, Resaercher, Nixon Center, Foreign Affairs, “The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood”, March/April, L/N)The Muslim Brotherhood is the world's oldest, largest, and most influential Islamist organization. It is also the most controversial, condemned by both conventional opinion in the West and radical opinion in the Middle East. American commentators have called the Muslim Brothers "radical Islamists" and "a vital component of the enemy's assault force ... deeply hostile to the United States." Al Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri sneers at them for "lur[ing] thousands of young Muslim men into lines for elections ... instead of into the lines of jihad." Jihadists loathe the Muslim Brotherhood (known in Arabic as al-Ikhwan al-Muslimeen) for rejecting global jihad and embracing democracy. These positions seem to make them moderates, the very thing the United States, short on allies in the Muslim world, seeks. But the Ikhwan also assails U.S. foreign policy, especially Washington's support for Israel, and questions linger about its actual commitment to the democratic process. Over the past year, we have met with dozens of Brotherhood leaders and activists from Egypt, France, Jordan, Spain, Syria, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom. In long and sometimes heated discussions, we explored the Brotherhood's stance on democracy and jihad, Israel and Iraq, the United States, and what sort of society the group seeks to create. The Brotherhood is a collection of national groups with differing outlooks, and the various factions disagree about how best to advance its mission. But all reject global jihad while embracing elections and other features of democracy. There is also a current within the Brotherhood willing to engage with the United States. In the past several decades, this current -- along with the realities of practical politics -- has pushed much of the Brotherhood toward moderation. AT: Egyptian Instability 2/23. No Impact – instability won’t topple the government – security forces solveBradley in ‘8 (John, British Journalist and Author of “Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution”, FrontPageMagazine, “Egypt: On the Brink of Revolution?” 4-30, http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=8D51E68E-FB9D-4FEA-BD51-554742EC61C4)FP: Yes, your book is extremely timely. Egypt is presently witnessing an endless series of strikes, demonstrations and riots. What is the cause? And what are the chances of them leading to serious instability? Bradley: There are many causes: extreme poverty, endemic torture, rampant corruption, political oppression, the complete evisceration of the middle class, the theft of the country's vast wealth by the fat cats under the guise of privatization and opening up the economy to foreign investment. Then there's the ideologically bankrupt regime itself that has absolutely no interest in solving any of these problems -- indeed, which is the root cause of them all. There's no indication that the latest wave of strikes and riots will in and of itself topple the Mubarak regime. There are 1.4 million members of the Egyptian security forces, and their brutality in stifling dissent is legendary. As I write in my book, these thugs even beat, rape, and murder little boys for allegedly stealing packets of tea, apparently just for fun of it, so they can be completely relied upon to beat protestors in the street to a pulp. 4. No governmental overthrow – analysts agree Washington Post in ‘5 (Anthony Shadid, “Egypt's Political Opening Exposes Frailty of Opposition”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/27/AR2005072702296_pf.html)Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for 24 years, will announce his candidacy for a fifth term Thursday, officials say. The event will be carefully scripted: He will declare his intention in Shibin al-Kom, the gritty Nile Delta village where he was born 77 years ago. Protocol will be followed, they say, and his party will then nominate him to stand for election Sept. 7. But as Mubarak looks past the barely contested vote, little else in the largest Arab country seems assured. After months of expectations -- high hopes for change that followed this spring's protests in Lebanon and Mubarak's own hints at more political freedom -- the longest-serving ruler of modern Egypt today is struggling through a season of discontent. There is nascent dissent against him, and far broader frustration over decades of perceived stagnation. Three nearly simultaneous bombings Saturday in the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, which killed as many as 88 people, have undercut the mantra of his government -- security and stability. Beyond his election this fall is another for parliament in November that will be viewed in the United States and elsewhere as the barometer of whether Mubarak will inaugurate long-awaited reform. "Everything in the next year will depend on what happens in the next few months," said Diaa Rashwan, an analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "It's a critical moment." Hardly anyone in Egypt views Mubarak's days as numbered, barring problems with his health or a decision to step down. Always more tactician than visionary, he has proved himself a survivor through assassination attempts, a stubborn insurgency in the 1990s and regional crises that once led him to war. This time, he may benefit from the very irony of change: The new liberties provided to his opposition have revealed its divisions and weakness. The bombings, Egypt's worst terrorist attack, have cowed fiery opposition newspapers, at least for now. Frustration aside, many of Egypt's 77 million people seem reluctant to enter the political fray. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. 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