Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File

Ext #3 – No Escalation

This paper makes three arguments First, fears of an all-out trade war and spiraling protectionist backlash are exaggerated. There are a great many insurance policies in place to pre-empt anything akin to the beggar-thy-neighbor policies of the 1930s, including a solid multilateral system with bound tariffs and a credible dispute settlement mechanism, dozens of bilateral free trade deals with often deep tariff commitments, solid intellectual backing for free trade, well-organized export lobbies, and the unprecedentedly large stake that countries around the world have in the policies of their trading partners and the fortunes of the global trading system.

AT: Free Trade Solves Interdependance

Trade is not key to economic interdependence

STREETEN 2001 (Paul, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Boston University and Founder and Chairman of the journal World Development, Finance and Development, Vol 38, No 2, June)

Trade is, of course, only one, and not the most important, of many manifestations of economic interdependence. Others are the flow of factors of production—capital, technology, enterprise, and various types of labor—across frontiers and the exchange of assets, the acquisition of legal rights, and the international flows of information and knowledge. The global flow of foreign exchange has reached the incredible figure of $2 trillion per day, 98 percent of which is speculative. The multinational corporation has become an important agent of technological innovation and technology transfer. In 1995, the sales of multinationals amounted to $7 trillion, with these companies' sales outside their home countries growing 20-30 percent faster than exports.
Interdependence does not solve war—both world wars disprove this

COPELAND 1996 (Dale, Assistant Professor in the Department of Government and Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia, International Security, Spring)

Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence - meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability - gives states an incentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to necessary materials and goods. The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars. The period up to World War I exposes a glaring anomaly for liberal theory: the European powers had reached unprecedented levels of trade, yet that did not prevent them from going to war. Realists certainly have the correlation right - the war was preceded by high interdependence - but trade levels had been high for the previous thirty years; hence, even if interdependence was a necessary condition for the war, it was not sufficient. At first glance, the period from 1920 to 1940 seems to support liberalism over realism. In the 1920s, interdependence was high, and the world was essentially peaceful; in the 1930s, as entrenched protectionism caused interdependence to fall, international tension rose to the point of world war. Yet the two most aggressive states in the system during the 1930s, Germany and Japan, were also the most highly dependent despite their efforts towards autarchy, relying on other states, including other great powers, for critical raw materials. Realism thus seems correct in arguing that high dependence may lead to conflict, as states use war to ensure access to vital goods. Realism's problem with the interwar era, however, is that Germany and Japan had been even more dependent in the 1920s, yet they sought war only in the late 1930s when their dependence, although still significant, had fallen.

AT: Gay Rights (and other Impacts)

1. Squo Solves

Nico Sifra Quintana policy analyst for the American Progress Institute July 1 2009 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/07/lgbt_rights.html

Every day the LGBT community seems to be experiencing a new expansion of civil rights. President Barack Obama signed on June 17 a Presidential Memorandum on Federal Benefits and Non-Discrimination that grants non-discrimination protections and some same-sex partner benefits for LGBT federal employees. On May 6, Maine Governor John Baldacci (D-ME) signed into law a bill legalizing same-sex marriage, making Maine the fifth state—along with Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, and Iowa—to allow same-sex marriage. And the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act, which, if passed by the Senate and signed by the president, would expand protections under the federal hate crimes law to LGBT people.
2. Employment discrimination is an Alt Caus

Nico Sifra Quintana policy analyst for the American Progress Institute July 1 2009 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/07/lgbt_rights.html

Equal rights and protections under federal law would provide LGBT Americans with increased employment security and help protect them from falling below the federal poverty level. According to the Williams Institute, separate surveys have revealed that 16 to 68 percent of LGB people report experiencing employment discrimination. And the Transgender Law Center found that 70 percent of transgender people surveyed in California experienced workplace harassment related to their gender identity. Approximately half of survey respondents also reported experiencing some loss of employment either as a direct or possible result of their gender identity. Nevertheless, no federal laws currently exist protecting all LGBT workers from employment discrimination.


3. Military discrimination is an Alt Caus

ABS News 3/8/09 “Wage 'all-out war' vs discrimination, LGBT group urges AFP” http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/03/08/09/wage-all-out-war-vs-discrimination-lgbt-group-urges-afp
"We welcome the statements made by top military officials declaring that lesbians and gays are now accepted in the military. However, this is not insufficient. There has to be a concrete and comprehensive non-discrimination policy in the military," Project Equality spokesperson Jonas Bagas was quoted as saying. "There has to be a clear policy explicitly stating that anyone, regardless of sexual orientation and gender identity, can join the military provided that they qualify for military service," Bagas said. Project Equality also urged the AFP to address other forms of discrimination within the AFP, particularly discrimination once gays and lesbians enter into service. "Once inside, LGBT soldiers can encounter other forms of discrimination and abuse. That, too, should be prohibited," Bagas added. "The military is a macho establishment. Hearing pro-LGBT statements from its officials may be refreshing, but they cannot hide the strong anti-LGBT sentiment in the military," Bagas said.

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