Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File


Ext #1: No Impact Terrorist attacks on the grid will have limited impact – studies prove



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Ext #1: No Impact




Terrorist attacks on the grid will have limited impact – studies prove

Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004, Professor and Director, Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, [“New Terrorist Study Analyzes Attacks on Portws and Power Grids,” http://viterbi.usc.edu/news/news/2007/new-terrorist-study.htm, August 9 2007]


A dirty bomb attack in the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex would result in serious economic and psychological consequences, and could produce tens to hundreds of latent cancers. But if terrorists caused a blackout in Los Angeles County, various forms of resilience would give electricity customers the ability to lower the potential damage to their businesses. These are the findings of two new studies by scientists affiliated with the University of Southern California Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events

Terrorist attacks won’t have a major impact on electricity reliability – redundant transmission and generation reserves



Michaels, 8 – Adjunct Scholar at CATO and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute (Robert J., Electricity Journal, “A National Renewable Portfolio Standard: Politically Correct, Economically Suspect,” April 2008, vol. 21, no. 3, Lexis-Nexis Academic) // JMP
National security and "energy independence." There are few if any important relationships between renewables and energy security for the nation. Security centers on oil, but only 2 percent of the nation's power comes from it and some oil-fired plants can also burn gas. Interruptions of conventional fuel supplies are rare and usually local, but intermittent renewables have their own reliability risks. Some advocates see a national RPS as deterring terrorist attacks on large power plants, but there are surely cheaper ways to achieve this end.59 Security is better addressed directly by facility owners and government formulating a national policy on infrastructure. Electricity requires redundant transmission and generation reserves to maintain reliability, whether outages are caused by lightning or bombs. The destruction of an isolated wind farm achieves less than that of a large generator, but in most scenarios the loss of either will have little effect on reliability.

Redundancies in the grid solve for disruptions due to terrorism

Washington Post, 4 (Justin Blum, “Bandaged Grid Still Vulnerable - 2003 Blackout Shed Light on Weaknesses, But Power System Fixes Fall Short of Need ,” 8-10-2004, p. E01, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A52858-2004Aug9?language=printer) // SM




Homeland security officials also worry that electricity could be disrupted by terrorism. Industry executives said that they have taken precautions and are working with the government. They said that the electrical grid has redundancies that should minimize serious disruptions in the event of an attack on a power plant or transmission line. In April, a joint U.S.-Canadian task force concluded that the power grid needed to be more closely regulated. A task force report focused blame on FirstEnergy Corp. of Akron, Ohio, whose major transmission lines tripped, causing the failure of the grid. The report said that "unsafe conditions" that day resulted from violations of the voluntary guidelines by FirstEnergy, one of the nation's largest utilities. The task force concluded that FirstEnergy, which recently agreed to pay $89.9 million to settle shareholder lawsuits partly related to the blackout, should have cut power to some of its customers to prevent the blackout from spreading but failed to do so. The company also failed to trim trees near power lines.


The terrorist risk to the grid is negligible and could be fixed quickly



Kaplan, 7
– Associated Editor at the Council of Foreign Relations (Eben, “America’s Vulnerable Energy Grid,” 4-27-2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/13153/americas_vulnerable_energy_grid.html) // SM


Attacks on infrastructure are an almost daily fact of life in Iraq
. Experts caution the war in that country will produce a whole generation of terrorists who have honed their skills sabotaging infrastructure. In his recent book, The Edge of Disaster, CFR security expert Stephen E. Flynn cautions, “The terrorist skills acquired are being catalogued and shared in Internet chat rooms.” But when it comes to Iraq’s electrical grid, RAND economist Keith W. Crane says terrorists are not the main cause of disruptions: “Most of the destruction of the control equipment was looting,” he says.

Either way, Clark W. Gellings, vice president of the Electric Power Research Institute, an industry research organization, thinks the U.S. grid is an unlikely target. “It’s not terribly sensational,” he explains, “The system could overcome an attack in hours, or at worst, days.” That said, attacks on electricity infrastructure could become common in future warfare: The U.S. military has designed and entire class of weapons designed to disable power grids.



Ext #2 – Solving Now




    1. The government has programs to protect the energy grid from Terrorists

Charles Trabandt, Capitol Hill Hearing Testimony, FDCH, 10-10-01


In the area of infrastructure and transmission grid security, the Congress, the Administration and industry have responded in quick order to the heightened threat of terrorism. The Subcommittee provided leadership with the hearing on September 20th with Administration witnesses and related activities. The Department of Energy was scheduled to make legislative recommendations on security on October 9th with immediate Committee mark-up of emergency legislation in the Senate this week. NERC has been in a readiness state of high alert and an EEI task force has been working with NERC, NEI, other energy trade groups and DOE on enhanced security measures. All of these initiatives, and undoubtedly many more in the context of homeland defense, will parallel the preparations for Desert Storm a decade ago. Government and industry worked in close cooperation then to ensure adequate protection of our vital energy sector. And, I 'm confident that today's efforts ultimately will be just as successful in the face of the new terrorist threat.


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