Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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AT: Tar SandsCompanies have committed to reject tar sand Stockman 10 (Lorne, May 6, “Tar Sands Oil Means High Gas Prices”, http://dirtyoilsands.org/files/CEI-TarSandsMeansHigherOilPrices.pdf), Corporate Ethics International Tar sands (also known as oil sands) oil production is the most expensive oil production in the world. The Keystone XL pipeline will create significant over capacity for tar sands crude into the U.S. raising pipeline tariffs and adding to the already high cost of tar sands production. The growth in tar sands production needed to fill the Keystone XL pipeline will only occur if oil prices keep rising. Tar sands production exerts little if any influence over global oil prices because it maintains no spare production capacity. Tar sands production is a symptom of high oil prices and not a basis for lower prices. Tar sands oil production is the most expensive oil production in the world today and has been labeled the ‘marginal barrel’ by the International Energy Agency. In April 2010 Marvin Odum, Shell’s head of tar sands, announced that the company would not go ahead with any new tar sands projects in the next five years and perhaps longer because of the expense of doing so. He said that, ‘the oil sands have become one of the most costly places on earth to pursue oil projects’. Referring to the company’s recent $14 billion expansion of its tar sands mining project he said that it represented, ‘some of the most expensive production that we have.’iii He stated that the 100,000 barrel a day (b/d) project will require minimum oil prices of $70-75 to turn a profit. Further, construction costs in Alberta are only going up. The rush to develop tar sands projects and the huge requirements for labor, cement, steel, engineering equipment and other resources mean that everything from rigs to housing are at a premium in the tar sands regions. A recent decline in costs spurred by the recession is already being reversed.iv In November 2009, one of Canada’s respected energy think tanks, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) produced its 2009 to 2043 forecast for the tar sands industry.v In this 35 year timeline it expects oil prices to rise to around $200/bbl stimulating growth in tar sands production of between 5 and 6 million b/d by the 2030s to 2040s. It calculates that the oil price required to facilitate this level of production ranges from $119 to $134/bbl. The last time oil prices were at this level, in mid-2008, U.S. gasoline prices averaged $3.96 per gallon.vi The tar sands industry is clearly betting on high oil prices in order produce much of the as yet undeveloped resource. However, there is a raft of economic analysis including that from the IEA and others that shows that high oil prices hinder economic growth and are therefore unsustainable. CERI and the tar sands industry are counting on a situation that would be devastating for the U.S. economy. If oil prices ever did reach $200/bbl, gasoline prices would probably be above $7 per gallon. Tar sands production is expensive primarily because it is bitumen, a solid or semi-solid form of degraded oil. Extracting and processing it requires more complex procedures than most conventional oil production. These processes require extensive specialized infrastructure leading to huge capital investment costs and high operating costs. Compare for example the estimated cost of developing a heavy oil field in Saudi Arabia with Shell’s recent tar sands mining expansion. The Manifa Field in Saudi Arabia is estimated to cost $15.75 billion to develop and as such is one of the most expensive developments in the country. It is slated to produce 900,000 b/d of oil as well as significant quantities of natural gas and condensate.ix In contrast, Shell’s Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) expansion cost $14 billion but only added 100,000 b/d of crude oil capacity. AT: Teen Pregnancy1. Status Quo is solving teen pregnancy. Anitei 07’ Anitei, 07, Stefan, Softpedia, “Teen Pregnancies Have Reached Record Low”. 7/14/2009. It seems that nowadays girls do not get fooled so easily anymore. A new report revealed that currently, less high school students are having sex, and condom use is on the rise. This triggered a record for the fewest teen pregnancies. Now more young people are also finishing high school and more little kids are being read to, as found by this governmental approach on the well-being of the nation's children. "The implications for the population are quite positive in terms of their health and their well-being. The lower figure on teens having sex means the risk of sexually transmitted diseases is lower," said Edward Sondik, director of the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2005, 47 % of high school students (6.7 million) stated to have had sexual intercourse, a decrease compared to 54 % in 1991, and this rate has remained constant since 2003. A 2005 investigation found that of those who had sex during a three-month period, 63 % (9 million) used condoms, a rise from 46 % in 1991. "The teen birth rate was 21 per 1,000 young women ages 15-17 in 2005 - an all-time low. It was down from 39 births per 1,000 teens in 1991," said the report. "This is very good news. Young teen mothers and their babies are at a greater risk of both immediate and long-term difficulties.", said Sondik. The birth rate in the 15-19 age category was 40/1,000 in 2005, also a significant drop from the previous decade. "Education campaigns that started years ago are having a significant effect. I think the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the efforts in the '80s and '90s had a lot to do with that. We need to encourage young teens to delay sexual initiation and we need to make sure they get all the information they need about condoms and birth control," said James Wagoner, president of Advocates for Youth, a Washington-based nonprofit group that focuses on prevention of teen pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases. The report was made gathering information from statistics and studies at 22 federal agencies. 2. T.V. causes teen pregnancy Roan 08’ Shari, LA Times, “Sexual content on TV is linked to teen pregnancy”. 11/03/2008. Teenagers who watch a lot of television programs that contain sexual content are more than twice as likely to be involved in a pregnancy, according to a study published today in the journal Pediatrics. Researchers from RAND Corporation surveyed about 2,000 adolescents, ages 12 to 17, nationwide in 2001 about their television habits and sexual behavior. Researchers focused on 23 programs popular among teenagers that were widely available on broadcast and cable TV. The shows included dramas, comedies, reality programs and animated shows. Sexual content was defined as depictions of sex as well as dialogue or discussion about sex. The participants were surveyed again three years later. About 700 said they had engaged in sexual intercourse by the third survey. The teens who watched the most sexual content on TV (the 90th percentile) were twice as likely to have become pregnant or caused a pregnancy compared to the teens who watched the least amount of sexual content on TV (the 10th percentile). Adolescents who lived in a two-parent household had a lower probability of pregnancy while African Americans and adolescents with behavior problems were more likely to be involved in a pregnancy. Parents should consider limiting their teen's exposure to sexual content on TV, said the study's lead author, Anita Chandra, a behavioral scientist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. Television producers should consider more realistic depictions of the consequences of sex in their scripts, she says, noting that there is little content on the consequences of unprotected sex. About 1 million adolescents become pregnant each year in the United States. "Adolescents receive a considerable amount of information about sex through television and that programming typically does not highlight the risks and responsibilities of sex," said Chandra, in a news release. "Our findings suggest that television may play a significant role in the high rates of teenage pregnancy in the United States." 3. Many alternative causes to teen pregnancy Mayor ‘6 Susan Mayor, “Teen pregnancy”. Solarnavigator. Online. 7/17/06. http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:yy4h_c-cSU4J:www.solarnavigator.net/animal_kingdom/humans/teenage_pregnancy.htm+root+cause+of+teen+pregnancy&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us. 7/22/09 The root causes of teenage pregnancy might be: Peer pressure: 76% of girls and 58% of boys in a 1996 Seventeen magazine survey reported that teenage females had sexual intercourse in response to their boyfriend's desire for it. A 2003 Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that one in three young men aged 15-17 said they had felt pressure from male friends to have sex. Contraceptive use: In a 1996 Kaiser Family Foundation study, 46% of adolescents surveyed said that they believed teenage pregnancy resulted from the failure to keep contraception at the ready. 23% of sexually active young women the 1996 Seventeen magazine poll admitted to having had unprotected sex with a partner who eschewed the use of a condom. 70% of girls in a 1997 PARADE poll claimed it was embarrassing to buy birth control or request information from a doctor. Parental relationship: 66% of girls in the 1997 PARADE survey said that the likelihood becoming pregnant as a teen increased if one had parents who were inattentive, unloving, or failed to instill moral values. A majority of respondents in a 1988 Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies survey attributed the occurrence of adolescent pregnancy to a breakdown of communication between parents and child and also to inadequate parental supervision. Mass media: In the 1997 PARADE survey, 57% replied that sexualized content in film, 55% in television, and 44% in music helped to influence teenagers to engage in sexual activity before they are ready. A 1996 U.S. News & World Report poll, which asked about how television programs might contribute to the incidence of teenage pregnancy, found that 46% thought TV played a large role, 30% that it had some effect, 14% that it had little effect, 9% that it had none. 36% in the 1997 PARADE survey said they believed that an adolescent might become pregnant to satisfy a desire for unconditional love. 24% said they believed that a girl might also become pregnant in an attempt to retain or win back a boyfriend. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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