Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
Ext #1 – Terrorism Declining
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Ext #1 – Terrorism DecliningTerrorism is declining – the Human security brief proves Stroehlein 08 Andrew Stroehlein worked at the Institute for War and Peace “Global terrorism decreasing” May 23, 08 http://www.alertnet.org/db/blogs/3159/2008/04/23-105753-1.htm The new Human Security Brief 2007, published this week and including a comprehensive review of the statistical data on global terrorism, shows a sharp drop in the incidence of terrorist violence around the world. Deaths from terrorist actions have declined by some 40 percent. The study from the Human Security Report Project at Simon Fraser University’s School for International Studies in Vancouver, Canada, says the expert consensus that Islamist terrorism is rising simply has it wrong. It points out that “the loose-knit terror network associated with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda has suffered a dramatic collapse in popular support throughout the Muslim world”. Of course, the counting is complicated by a number of factors, but overall, this seems to burst the bubble of the doom-and-gloom crowd. The new study also contains an interesting section on “Why Most Terrorist Organizations Fail”, again pulling the rug out from under many who think violence against civilian targets is somehow a successful method for achieving political aims. I wonder if any of those thoughtless voices in the media who have essentially been cooperating in spreading unnecessary fear might just want to reconsider how they cover terrorism. Probably not, I guess. “The Sky Is Falling” and “We’re All Going to Die” are still headlines that will sell papers and keep audiences from turning the channel. Terrorism is declining – Death Tolls and bases prove Stroehlein 08 Human Security Brief “Human Security Brief 2007” May 21, 08 http://www.humansecuritybrief.info/ Challenging the expert consensus that the threat of global terrorism is increasing, the Human Security Brief 2007 reveals a sharp net decline in the incidence of terrorist violence around the world. Fatalities from terrorism have declined by some 40 percent, while the loose-knit terror network associated with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda has suffered a dramatic collapse in popular support throughout the Muslim world. The Brief also describes and analyses the extraordinary, but largely unnoticed, positive change in sub-Saharan Africa's security landscape. The number of conflicts being waged in the region more than halved between 1999 and 2006; the combat toll dropped by 98 percent. Finally, the Brief updates the findings of the 2005 Human Security Report, and demonstrates that the decline in the total number of armed conflicts and combat deaths around the world has continued. The number of military coups has also continued to decline, as have the number of campaigns of deadly violence waged against civilians. Ext #3 – No AttackThere will be no major attack- several reasonsBrookings Institution 7 - 18 -08 – independent research and policy institute [“Have we exaggerated the threat of terrorism?” Brookings Institute, July 18, 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/0221_terrorism.aspxOne participant argued that terrorism presents minimal cause for concern. Discounting war zones, studies show that there have been very few people killed by “Muslim extremists” each year—in fact, more people drown in bathtubs each year in the United States. The FBI reported in 2005 that it had not found an al-Qaeda presence in the United States. Additionally, terrorism, by its very nature, can be self-defeating: many attacks by al-Qaeda have caused the group to lose popularity. This participant questioned both the intentions and capability of al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden has threatened many attacks that he has not been able to execute. In specific, this participant thought it unlikely that that al-Qaeda would obtain nuclear weapons, despite fears to the contrary. Another participant agreed that the fears about terrorism are exaggerated and differentiated between the actual campaign against al-Qaeda and its supporters and the idea of a general “war on terrorism.” However, participants also detailed the larger problems that terrorism can create, regardless of the numbers it kills directly: terrorism often leads to insurgencies or civil wars; it could destabilize U.S. allies in the Middle East and the whole Middle Eastern architecture; terrorism keeps oil prices high; and it has psychological effects beyond the actual death tolls. Additionally, many planned attacks have been stopped before they were carried out; one participant noted that there have been several near-misses recently. One participant argued that the war on terrorism is actually about an ideological battle between the United States and its allies and radical forces. Another participant agreed with this assessment of the general struggle between the United States and “radical Islamic extremism.” This participant noted that the larger struggle is much more complicated to understand than terrorism in specific and that this leads to a disproportionate focus on terrorism and the accompanying misallocation of resources. Participants highlighted the difference between the risks presented by terrorism in the United States and around the world. The impact of terrorism in Iraq and Lebanon, for instance, is completely different than the impact in the United States, which one participant categorized as being essentially psychological. The relevance of the capability of governments at preventing terrorism was also addressed. Terrorism is particularly dangerous in places where there is weak government capacity and rule of law. Participants discussed why has there not been another terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001. One participant presented several reasons: the United States has a supportive domestic Muslim population; the would-be terrorists in the United States are not skilled; and U.S. counterterrorism policy has made it more difficult for the al-Qaeda core to plan complex attacks. This participant argued, however, that there are risks that this situation may change going forward. As the al-Qaeda core reconstitutes itself in Pakistan, it may be able to plan more complex attacks again. Additionally, the U.S. Muslim population may become less supportive overtime as a result of U.S. homeland security policy. However, another participant did not think the attitudes of the U.S. Muslim community were particularly relevant to this debate. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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