Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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AT: Double Dip RecessionA “double-dip” recession has no impact on the economy and no Congressional policy will change the economy unless it addresses the multiple economies of US. Time 2009 (“A Double Dip Recession? Who Cares?” , Zachary Karabell , http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2007409,00.html?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0vGdx3kNM) What should be most striking about these concerns, however, is how little they matter. A double dip is a period of economic contraction that follows a brief recovery after a recession. It's a useful prop for framing economic and political debates but doesn't describe what's actually happening across the country. The reality is that if you are doing well in this economy, either as a company or an individual, you will continue to do well regardless of a statistical double dip. If you are doing badly, you will continue to struggle whether or not the economic data are improving. (See 10 big recession surprises.) But for tens of millions of others, there is no recession. For the college-educated, the unemployment rate is 4.4% (for college-educated women, less than that). For them, wages have been rising, since more-skilled workers command higher salaries and industries ranging from technology to health care have been hiring and expanding. Those workers are enjoying — in relative moderation — the fruits of modern society, including owning homes, buying millions of cool gadgets like iPhones and BlackBerrys, taking summer vacations, sending their children to costly but worthy colleges and worrying over their retirement accounts, which means that they have retirement accounts to worry about. (See the best business deals of 2009.) And then there are millions of others who fall on the spectrum in between. Very few of these groupings will be altered by a double-dip recession. If the economy expands by 3% over the next quarters, there is little indication that the millions currently struggling or the many more in limbo will suddenly be less in limbo. Nor is there any reason to suppose that companies will suddenly start hiring again. They have integrated productivity-enhancing technologies, understand the dynamics of inventories and had been trimming workforces for years before the 2008-09 crisis. Better policy from Washington won't change that; nor is worse policy truly the cause of it, though it is a convenient excuse. On the flip side, if the economy contracts a bit, there is no reason to expect fewer iPads will be bought. After all, save for a brief few months at the very end of 2008 and the very beginning of 2009, the economic activity of the haves showed remarkable resilience. While contraction will lead to more negative sentiment, sentiment is already negative and is not a reliable indicator of activity. People can feel bad and spend money — and often do. So the double-dip question is yet another rabbit hole that distracts from the structural realities and challenges that the U.S. — and the rest of the world — faces. The debate speaks to a false belief that our macro statistics tell us something truly meaningful when in fact they are no better than shadows of shadows that offer at best a blurry facsimile. Until we begin to have a discussion about the multiple economies that constitute the U.S., our attitudes and our answers will fail to generate the desired — and shared — outcome of a more secure and prosperous future for all. Double-dip recession won’t be bad – limited downside GuruFocus.com 7/30 (7/30/10, " How The Risk of a Double Dip Recession is Being Overblown ", http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101578) Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that I am horribly wrong, and that the economy continues to dive right into a double dip recession. Let’s tack on other assumptions, too, including a double dip in Europe (which does seems likely, though no one is talking about it), persistently high unemployment and a bleak outlook for home prices. Let’s also assume our political leaders remain reasonably rational in their response to this scenario ‐ or at least that they fake it for a while. Should a double dip occur, even under those circumstances, it’s hard to see it being anything other than a mild recession. Housing is already near a bottom, banks have already been re‐booting themselves with new capital, and big companies have already gone through rounds of deep layoffs – and they’re sitting on historically high piles of cash. And whether you’re a supply‐sider or a Keynesian, that we’re coming up on election season means that a double dip will certainly not go unaddressed in D.C. So even if I’m wrong, I believe the downside is limited ‐ at least in terms of investing. You are on your own if you quit your job to flip condos in Vegas again. This, by the way, is also why you need a margin of safety in the companies you buy shares in, too – in case things go south for reasons you don’t originally contemplate. AT: Drug Use1. Multiple alternative causes for drug use LHS 07’ Lakeview Health System 2007 http://www.lakeviewhealth.com/causes-of-drug-addiction.php acc: 07/22/09 There are many life events that can be described as drug addiction causes, but what they really are, are triggers for drug use. Some common triggers might be death of a loved one, divorce, physical pain or an overall unhappiness with oneself or feeling like an outsider. When a person suffers from a mental illness, such as depression or anxiety to name just two, they will sometimes turn to drug use as a form of self-medication in order to relieve the feelings that they are unable or unwilling to deal with. The coexistence of a mental disorder and a drug addiction is known as a dual diagnosis, and both can and should be treated concurrently. 2. Status Quo solving for Drug use CDE 08’ California Department of Education Safe and Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act September 17, 2008 http://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/he/at/safedrugfree.asp acc: 07/22/09 On January 8, 2002, the President signed into law the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB), which reauthorizes the Elementary And Secondary Education Act (ESEA) of 1965. The Safe and Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act (SDFSC) as Title IV, Part A of the NCLB became effective on July 1, 2002. The purpose of the SDFSC is to support programs that prevent violence in and around schools; that prevent the illegal use of alcohol, tobacco, and drugs; that involve parents and communities; and that are coordinated with related federal, state, school, and community efforts and resources to foster a safe and drug-free learning environment that supports student academic achievement. The Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs (ADP) also receives SDFSC funds to support community efforts to keep youth drug and alcohol free. The ADP now requires that the SDFSC funds allocated to community-based grantees through competitive Request for Applications (RFAs) are used to support programs or activities that complement and support activities of local educational agencies (LEAs). The mission of the Safe and Healthy Kids Program Office (SHKPO) is to provide leadership to keep youth safe and alcohol, tobacco and drug free. Drug, alcohol and tobacco-use prevention programs are part of this effort as well as violence prevention and school safety are part of this effort. Programs to promote youth development, resiliency, buffers, protective factors, and assets are also part of this effort. The purpose of our prevention programs and youth development efforts is to foster a positive learning environment that supports academic achievement. 3. Drug use decreasing in status quo Goliath 04’ Goliath News September 16, 2004 SAMHSA: marijuana use decreasing among youth. http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-5197123/SAMHSA-marijuana-use-decreasing-among.html acc: 07/22/09 A new survey by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) show marijuana use by young Americans has decreased, while overall illicit drug use showed no measurable change, although the use of some drugs decreased sharply. The 2003 National Survey on Drug Use and Health also shows that overall, 19.5 million Americans ages 12 and older--representing 8 percent of that population--currently used illicit drugs. The report shows a 5 percent decline in the number of youth between ages 17 and 17 who had ever used marijuana, while current use of marijuana dropped nearly 30 percent among 12- and 13-year-olds. Important Positive Change SAMHSA reported that "an important positive change" detected by the survey was "an increase in the perception of risk in using marijuana once a month or more frequently" on the part of youth and young adults. For youth 12 to 17 years of age, past year use of Ecstasy and LSD dropped 41 and 54 percent, respectively. Of the 16.7 million adult users (18 years and older) of illicit drugs, approximately 74 percent were employed full- or part-time in 2003. Alcohol Dependence The survey found 19.4 million adults with abuse of or dependence on alcohol in 2003, with 77 percent of those individuals employed full- or part-time, representing over 10 percent of the workers in each group, SAMHSA noted. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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