Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- AT: Flu (The Regular One)
- AT: Food Price Spikes
AT: FertilizerFertilizer does not harm the Environment Bos, 07 (M.G., February, Irrigation & Drainage Systems; Feb2007, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p1-15, 15p, http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=10&hid=6&sid=19217a3b-f882-4209-9fc4-ce68b91f2639%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=aph&AN=24940850) To meet the food-challenge, there are two options; use current agricultural practices and expand the cropped area at the same rate as the growth of world population or improvepractices so that crop yield per hectare increases. To illustrate the impact of (horizontal) expansion of agricultural land, it is good to visualize the area needed. At present about 16,000,000 km2 land is used for agriculture. A growth of 2.8% per year, matching the growth of world population, would each year require the reclamation of about 45,000 km2 nature for agriculture. We recommend focusing on the second option so that we can avoid the unwanted infringement into nature areas. In order to grow, the crop should be sufficient healthy to consume water. Thus plant diseases should be controlled through the sustainable use of pesticides. For the crop to grow, this water must contain “food” that can be transferred into bio-mass. This in turn, asks for the sustainable use of fertilizer. Sustainable rural development is seen as a process that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, maximizing the subsequent social and economic benefits in an equitable (or fair) manner, without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. The sustainability of agriculture therefore has been viewed from five perspectives within the “people, planet, profit” concept. They are related to the; social position of the rural community, availability of water, soil fertility, crop protection and the rural economy.On February 1, 2008, President George W. Bush said "the fundamentals of the economy are strong; we're just going through a rough patch right now" (UPI). Even while the economy was crumbling all arou... AT: Flu (The Regular One)Influenza pandemic improving now and controllable – technology and vaccine production W. H. O. -07, (World Health Organization, 10-23-07, “Projected supply of pandemic influenza vaccine sharply increases”) Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years. Last spring, the World Health Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010. "With influenza vaccine production capacity on the rise, we are beginning to be in a much better position vis-à-vis the threat of an influenza pandemic," Dr Marie-Paule Kieny, Director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research at WHO, said today. "However, although this is significant progress, it is still far from the 6.7 billion immunization courses that would be needed in a six month period to protect the whole world." "Accelerated preparedness activities must continue, backed by political impetus and financial support, to further bridge the still substantial gap between supply and demand," she said. This year, manufacturers have been able to step up production capacity of trivalent (three viral strains) seasonal influenza vaccines to an estimated 565 million doses, from 350 million doses produced in 2006, according to the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations. According to experts working in this field, the yearly production capacity for seasonal influenza vaccine is expected to rise to 1 billion doses in 2010, provided corresponding demand exists. This would help manufacturers to be able to deliver around 4.5 billion pandemic influenza vaccine courses because a pandemic vaccine would need about eight times less antigen, the substance that stimulates an immune response. Vaccine production capacity is linked to the amount of antigen that has to be used to make each dose of the vaccine. Scientists have recently discovered they can reduce the amount of antigen used to produce pandemic influenza vaccines by using water-in-oil substances that enhance the immune response. The progress was reported Friday at the first meeting of a WHO Advisory Group on pandemic influenza vaccine production and supply. The Global Action Plan Advisory Group, an independent, international committee of 10 members, met at WHO headquarters one year after eight new strategies to increase pandemic influenza vaccine were identified and published in the WHO Global pandemic influenza action plan to increase vaccine supply. At the Advisory Group meeting, other progress on the Global Action Plan was discussed. WHO reported it is setting up a training hub that would serve as a source of technology transfer to developing countries. AT: Food Price Spikes1. Food Prices fluctuate all the time, this is nothing new. Wade 07, Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), July 26, 2007 Thursday, First Edition, Matt Wade, Economics Writer, “It's the underlying inflation, stupid;” , THE ECONOMY, NEWS AND FEATURES; Pg. 4, Nexis BORROWERS have been warned to brace for an interest rate rise after the next Reserve Bank board meeting in a fortnight. But why is an increase on the cards when the inflation rate is near the bottom of the central bank's target range at just 2.1 per cent? The answer lies in the difference between the headline inflation rate and the underlying rate. Measures of underlying inflation eliminate the one-off distortions in the consumer price index often caused by items like fresh fruit, vegetables and petrol, which can fluctuate wildly from quarter to quarter. The value in doing this has been underscored over the past 18 months as the dramatic rise and fall of banana prices, drought-related food price fluctuations, and the ups and downs of bowser prices have played havoc with the headline inflation rate. The Reserve relies heavily on measures of underlying inflation to guide its decisions on interest rates because they give the most accurate indication of real inflationary pressures in the economy. 2. Food Prices in the U.S. will gradually increase for the time being for four main reasons. China Daily, 07 Chinadaily.com.cn, September 28, 2007 Friday, PRICE INCREASES ARE A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE, https://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4098998436&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=26&resultsUrlKey=29_T4098998439&cisb=22_T4098998438&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=227171&docNo=35 Though the consumer price index (CPI) keeps rising rapidly, the producer price index (PPI), a leading indicator of production costs, shows a declining trend. This suggests that the increase in the CPI is mainly the result of price hikes for food. The decline of the growth rate for non-food prices shows that supply and demand are stable, providing the basis for a gradual descent in prices later this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI grew by 2.4 percent in July, compared with 3.3 percent in January. The PPI growth was 0.2 percentage points higher in August than in July, but the overall trend is still downward. The slowing growth in the PPI is mainly the result of declining production costs. Though the cost of living rises with food prices, the slowing growth of production costs means an overall trend of slow growth of the PPI. The rate of CPI growth hit 6.5 percent in August, leading to 3.9 percent year-on-year growth from January to August. Higher food costs have led the faster rate of CPI growth. The prices of industrial consumer goods and services have risen by less than 1 percent this year, while food prices have soared, which has been a major factor in increasing the CPI growth rate. The relationship between supply and demand affects price levels in the short term. The huge supply potential, together with restricted growth in demand, is a basic reason for the declining growth rate of non-food prices. The most recent round of economic growth kicked off after the shortage economy was eliminated. In this new phase, output has reached a certain scale, productivity is increasing, the supplies of capital and labor are abundant and the supply of applied technologies is expanding. As the recent round of reforms takes hold, enterprises' ability to react to market fluctuations will improve. This means the potential to expand production and supply is huge. When there is demand, there will be a corresponding growth in supply. On the other hand, demand is getting more and more restricted. Since 2003, the central government has tightened its control of land and capital. It has put in place multiple measures, such as raising the threshold to control the unchecked binge on fixed assets investment. Since last year, the government has controlled the export of energy consuming, polluting and resource-intensive products by lowering tax rebates and collecting export tariffs. It has also tightened control of the export of products affected by trade conflicts. Generally speaking, the control of demand growth has improved. Having a high supply potential and controlled demand means a coordinated relationship between supply and demand. The possibility of a supply shortage or inflation is slight. What is more, partial oversupply and overcapacity could be possible in the future. Rising food prices, which have a huge impact on the CPI growth rate, do not mean there is something wrong with agricultural production. Grain production increased every year from 2004 to 2006. That continued this summer, when output saw a 1.3 percent year-on-year increase. The foundation for the grain supply is good. Four short-term reasons contribute to the rising food prices. First, world grain production decreased last year, and major producers such as the United States have been using corn to make fuel. Second, the State grain reserve has not caught up with the changing market. Third, the domestic capacity for making ethanol from corn has improved. Fourth, food prices were affected by epidemics and seasonal factors. Considered from a long-term perspective, these factors reflect a normal trend in economic development. The prices of agricultural and food products will gradually increase with industrialization, urbanization and rises in income levels. This reflects a natural adjustment of industrial-agricultural and urban-rural income distribution patterns. It also means farmers and rural residents are enjoying the fruits of economic growth. 3. High food prices are not necessarily bad—poorer farmers make more money too. Carey 2008 (John, senior correspondent in BusinessWeek's Washington bureau and received awards from the American Institute of Biological Sciences and former editor of The Scientist and the National & International Wildlife magazines, “Is Ethanol Getting a Bum Rap?” May 1) Certainly, a rapid rise in food prices brings misery to poor countries. But over the long haul, "it's not obvious that high grain prices are inherently bad," asserts Nathanael Greene, senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council. Years of cheap, subsidized grain in the U.S. and Europe have left farmers in the developing world unable to compete. They can't invest in better seed, machinery, or cultivation practices (page 26). As a result, global average yields for corn, wheat, and rice are less than half what the world's top 10% of farmers achieve. While American corn farmers produce 150 bushels per acre, farms in the developing world often get only 30. "If there is a crime against humanity, it is these low yields," not biofuels, says Richard Hamilton, CEO of Ceres Inc., a Thousand Oaks (Calif.) startup developing biofuel crops. Those low yields will improve if farmers make more money. In the long term, "high prices will lead these countries to produce more of their own food," says Morris, easing the supply shortages. 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