The climate dynamics of total solar variability
Adaptive efficiency is the key
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- Attachment 1 RHODES W FAIRBRIDGE
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- “truth about global warming! The sun is not a factor in recent climate change!”
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Adaptive efficiency is the keyThirty years of global cooling commencing in 2008 would have adverse consequences for humanity. If the experience of the previous episodes of global cooling over the last 1,000 years is a guide, there would be widespread crop failures and devastation throughout Europe. The increased demand for energy to warm the advanced economies of the world could have catastrophic consequences as already the supply of energy does not meet demand. The farming practices of the industrial world have been tailored to the relatively stable climate of the modern era. As a result, there is substantial genetic uniformity and loss of biodiversity for almost all animal, grain and horticultural produce. A sudden climate change to colder, dryer and harsher conditions could result in the catastrophic loss of industrial food production throughout the industrialised world. Epidemics could flourish in the harsh conditions of prolonged cold if those conditions are anything like the global deep freeze of 1812 to 1824. Global shortages of energy and essential foods, and increased and substantial insurance claims from damage arising from the entrenched cold and related developments could have devastating economic and financial consequences unleashing crippling inflationary forces throughout the world. In the last quarter of 2007 there are signs that an economic recession could develop in the USA. If this happened and the climate began to cool, as is plausible, given the preceding analysis, a global recession is not implausible. The combined impact of global cooling, global recession, global energy and food shortages and spreading epidemics, could activate the several serious flash points for violent conflict around the planet, creating even more global mayhem. Australia has witnessed how devastating a prolonged drought can be. If, during the next 30 years, most probably commencing in 2008, the drought returns with the same force of the Federation Drought, Australia’s standard of living could decline significantly. A renewed drought beginning so soon would greatly amplify the adverse impact of the current drought. The Earth’s climate dynamics over the last 15,000 years and its impact on humanity shows how we have adapted, or failed to adapt, to our uncertain, and sometimes random, i.e. non ergodic, world. Throughout this period the Earth’s climate dynamics have been largely driven by total solar variability, which has been shown to have random and periodic processes. Similarly, the solar system, which Rhodes Fairbridge considered to have a key role modulating total solar activity, has random and periodic processes. In addition, the major atmospheric/oceanic systems that drive much of the Earth’s climate are strongly influenced by total solar variability, and are themselves characterised by random and periodic processes. The variable output of the Sun, the Sun’s gravitational relationship between the Earth (and the Moon) and Earth’s variable orbital relationship with the Sun, regulate the Earth’s climate. The processes by which the Sun affects the Earth show periodicities on many time scales: each process is stochastic and immensely complex. The system consisting of the totality of the processes is even more complex. This system does not have a stable underlying structure, even if some of its subsystems do. The total system is, as Douglass North would say, non-ergodic. North (1999) considered that we live in a non-ergodic world. He explained that an ergodic phenomenon has an underlying structure so stable theory that can be applied time after time, consistently, can be developed. In contrast, the world with which we are concerned is continually changing: it is continually novel. Inconsistency over time is a feature of a non-ergodic world. The dynamics of change of the processes important to us are non-ergodic. The processes do not repeat themselves precisely. North (199) argued that although there may be some aspects of the world that may be ergodic, most of the significant phenomena are non-ergodic. In 1993 Douglass North, along with fellow economic historian, Robert W. Fogel, received the Noble Prize for Economics for pioneering work which resulted in the establishment of Institutional Economics, now a central school of modern economics. He introduced the idea of "adaptive efficiency" to describe how economies and societies work effectively, not at a moment in time, but through time. In his Noble Prize Lecture (North 1993), he reasoned that It is adaptive rather than allocative efficiency which is the key to long run growth. Successful political/economic systems have evolved flexible institutional structures that can survive the shocks and changes that are a part of successful evolution. But these systems have been a product of long gestation. We do not know how to create adaptive efficiency in the short run. Professor Emeritus North explained that adaptive efficiency is a society's effectiveness in creating institutions that are productive, stable, fair, broadly accepted and flexible enough to respond to social, political, economic, and environmental crises. He explained that an adaptively efficient society will cope with the novelty and uncertainty of a non-ergodic world. It will do this by the maintenance of institutions which enable trial and error and experimentation so that societal learning is effective, enabling the elimination of unsuccessful solutions and the retention of successful ones. Douglass North stressed that our capacity to deal with uncertainty effectively is essential to our succeeding in a non-ergodic world. It is crucial, therefore, that the methodologies we use to understand the exceedingly complex phenomena measured in our time series, correctly inform us of the future uncertainty of the likely pattern of development indicated by the time series. Classical time series analysis that features in the reports of the IPCC necessarily underestimates future uncertainty, whereas scaling methodologies that use the fractal structure of the phenomena estimate future uncertainty more accurately. In his many publications, for example North (2005), Douglass North stressed that if the issues with which we are concerned, such as global warming and the global commons, belong in a world of continuous change, that is, a non-ergodic world, then we face a set of problems that become exceedingly complex. North emphasised that our capacity to deal effectively with uncertainty is essential to our succeeding in a non-ergodic world. History shows that regional effects of climate change are highly variable and that the pattern of change is highly variable. An extremely cold (or hot) year can be followed by extremely hot (or cold) year. Warming and cooling will be beneficial for some regions but catastrophic for others. Fagan (1999, 2000, and 2004) documented in detail the relationships between the large scale and generally periodic changes in climate and the rise and fall of civilisations, cultures and societies since the dawn of history. He has shown that over the past 5,000 years catastrophic climate change has destroyed governments, societies and civilisations that could not adapt efficiently. The thesis of this paper is that the Sun, through its relationships with the solar system, is largely responsible for these changes and that we are now on the cusp of one of the major changes that feature in the planet’s history. Fagan (2004, page xv) concluded: The whole course of civilisation …. may be seen as a process of trading up on the scale of vulnerability. We are now, as a global community, very high up on that scale. As Douglass North showed, the main responsibility of governments in managing the impact of the potentially catastrophic events that arise in a non-ergodic world, is to mange society’s response to them so as to enable the society to adapt as efficiently as possible to them. Amongst other things, this would mean being better able to anticipate and manage our response to climate change, minimise suffering and maximise benefits and the efficiency of our adaptation to a climate that is ever changing, sometimes catastrophically, but generally predictably within bounds of uncertainty that the statisticians can estimate. At the very least, this requires that the scientific community act on the wise counsel of Rhodes W Fairbridge and present governments with advice that has regard to the entire field of planetary-lunar-solar dynamics, including gravitational dynamics. The entire field has to be understood so that the dynamics of terrestrial climate can be understood. The Nobel Prize winning Economist, Douglass North, argued that adaptive efficiency characterises governments that cope with, and survive over the longer term in, a non ergodic world. 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Rhodes W Fairbridge, one of Australia’s most accomplished intellectuals and an early expert on climate change, died on November 8 2006 in his home in the historic town of Amagansett overlooking the Atlantic on the northern edge of Long Island, New York. He was 92. He remained an Australian citizen all of his life. He was born in what is now Fairbridge Village in Western Australia in 1914 and named after his father’s friend and mentor, Cecil Rhodes. Rhodes spent his boyhood in the idyllic setting of Fairbridge Village working closely with his parents. Fairbridge Village, some ninety kilometres south of Perth, is a living monument to the altruistic vision, hard work and intellectual strength of his parents, Ruby and Kingsley, after whom it is named. There, in July 1912, they founded the Fairbridge Farm School. Kingsley, a Rhodes Scholar, founded the Child Emigration Society three years before at Oxford University with the support of his fellow Rhodes Scholars. Kingsley, inspired by Cecil Rhodes, dedicated his life to the achievement of his vision of providing the poor and orphaned children of the slums of England with a sense of self worth, with the opportunity to live a fulfilling and productive life. This was to be the purpose of the Fairbridge Farm School. Fairbridge Village, the Patron of which is the Governor of Western Australia, is now the site of major cultural events, including an annual festival of popular culture, organised mainly for and by young people. Dolan and Lewis (2004) point out that the architectural jewel in the crown of Fairbridge Village is a beautiful chapel, built in 1930-31, whose elegant simplicity shows the admiration in which Rhodes’ father, Kingsley, was held by one of the world’s most famous architects of the time, Sir Herbert Baker. He designed the chapel and supervised its construction, carried out by the Western Australian Government, as a pure labour of love to commemorate the memory of Kingsley Fairbridge. It was financed by other Englishmen who shared Sir Herbert’s admiration of Kingsley. Sir Herbert Baker considered that Kingsley lived the true values of altruism and honour that were central to Cecil Rhodes who had been his patron, too. Rhodes had little formal schooling until the age of 10 when his father died unexpectedly in 1924, aged only 39. Rhodes was taken to England, where he attended a new experimental school in Hampshire. It was here that his lifelong interest in Geology, science and maps became established. Whilst his undergraduate education was at Queen’s University, Ontario, and Oxford, he was awarded a Doctorate of Science from the University of Western Australia in 1944, at the age of 30, and bypassing the usual PhD prerequisite. The main parts of the thesis, Subaqueous Sliding and Slumped Blocks, formed Rhodes’ first two scientific publications in 1946 and 1947 (Fairbridge, 1946a, 1946b). Rhodes was also with the RAAF in General MacArthur’s headquarters during 1943 to 1945, as Deputy-Director of Intelligence. After the war Rhodes was a lecturer in Geology at the University of Western Australia. In 1954 he accepted a post as full professor with tenure at Columbia University, eventually becoming Professor Emeritus of Geology some years before his retirement in 1982. Rhodes Fairbridge was the first to document that over long time scales the ocean levels rose and fell. His first paper on this theme was published in 1950 (Fairbridge, 1950). The major paper that included what has become known as the Fairbridge Curve of the Holocene Eustatic Fluctuations was published in 1958 (Fairbridge, 1958, 1960, 1961a). He contributed to many disciplines, especially to our understanding of the periodicities of climate change. He authored or edited over one hundred scientific books, including many text books and several scientific encyclopaedias, and over 1,000 scientific papers (Finkl 1987), which also contains an annotated bibliography of all of Professor Fairbridge’s main publications to 1986). He was largely responsible for the establishment of several major scientific institutions and journals such as the Coastal Education and Research Foundation that, amongst other things, publishes the Journal of Coastal Research. He held many distinguished leadership positions in the international scientific community and has made many lasting contributions to science. He was the editor or co-editor of eight major encyclopaedias of specialised scientific papers, many of which he authored. The encyclopaedias have been in the following disciplines: Oceanography; the Atmospheric Sciences and Astrogeology; Geomorphology; Geochemistry and the Earth Sciences; Geology; Sedimentology; Paleontology; and Climatology. He was the editor of the Benchmarks in Geology Series with more than 90 volumes in print and was the general editor of the Fairbridge Encyclopaedias of the Earth Sciences. These major productions have significantly advanced and systematised each of the specialised sciences. Professor Emeritus Fairbridge had the honour of having three volumes of papers specially prepared to celebrate his life and work, (Rampino, et al., 1987), (Finkl, 1995), and (Finkl, 2005), in honour of his 70th, 80th and 90th birthdays respectively. Throughout his long scientific career, Rhodes Fairbridge drew attention to a vast mass of scientific evidence about the periodicities of climate change. He showed that the periodicities are revealed in a rich variety of sources, including: geology; geomorphology; glaciations; sediments; sand dunes; beach rock; the circulation of the ocean; geomagnetic records; the records of the isotopes of carbon, oxygen, beryllium, chlorine, and hydrogen in tree rings, ice cores, biota, rocks, air and water (Finkl, 1987, 1995 and 2005) Attachment 2 Sir William Herschel and the Royal Society In 1801 William Herschel (Herschell 1801a and 1801b) presented his ideas to the Royal Society about the relationship between sunspots and the price of wheat. At the time William Herschel was 63. He had held the appointment of the King’s Astronomer since 1782, was a Fellow of the Royal Society, which had awarded him the prestigious Copely Medal in 1781. By 1801, William Herschel was acknowledged by all as Europe’s most distinguished Astronomer. He had built the largest telescope in Europe, discovered many new features of the Universe and documented much new detail about the Sun. He had shown that the solar system moves at high speed through the Universe. He had discovered the Sun’s infrared radiation, showing that the Sun is a source of heat as well as light. Examples of new astronomical phenomena he documented include the discovery of:
He was a greatly admired scientist. In his 1776 book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith had compiled details of English wheat prices over 562 years from 1202 to 1764.1 Herschel had been studying sunspots and noticed that sometimes the Sun had more and sometimes less sunspots. He recorded what he saw. He reasoned that when there were more sunspots the Sun seemed to produce more ‘light and heat’ and when there were less, it appeared to produce less ‘light and heat’. In 1801 he informed the Royal Society: Since light and heat are so essential to our well-being, it must certainly be right for us to look into the source from whence they are derived, in order to see whether some material advantage may not be drawn from a thorough acquaintance with the causes from which they originate. This was one of the driving motivations behind his detailed observation of the Sun which he communicated to the Royal Society in April and May of 1801. His observations showed that sometimes the Sun had more spots than others, sometime it had no spots. He concluded that the Sun’s output of ‘light and heat’ increased with the number of sunspots. He went over observational records since 1610 and identified five periods longer than two years in which no spots had been recorded. He reasoned that with no spots the Earth would receive less ‘light and heat’ and therefore be cooler. Herschel faced the problem that there were no reliable measurements of atmospheric temperature and pressure for these years. After all, it was not until 1643 that Torricelli invented the first reliable barometer and 1714 that Fahrenheit invented the first Mercury thermometer. Herschel reasoned that if the climate cooled in response to diminished ‘light and heat’ from the spotless Sun, the wheat harvest would be reduced and accordingly, the price of wheat would rise. He further reasoned that the effect of variable solar output on vegetation would be similar to the effect of the Sun and the Moon on the tides. That is, that in some parts of the world the tides are very high and very low and that the tidal phenomena vary around the world over time and in relation to latitude and longitude. He pointed out that even though there were these great variations, the tidal phenomena are universally the result of a single principle, the variable gravitational force of the Sun and the Moon, as Newton had shown. Herschel applied his test to the five lean periods by tabulating the price of wheat for these periods. He used the 562 year time series of wheat prices published 25 years earlier by Adam Smith (also a Fellow of the Royal Society). Herschel found, and reported to the Royal Society that, roughly speaking, the price of wheat in England was highest when sunspots were absent. He summed up his argument in this way: The result of this review of the foregoing five periods is, that, from the price of wheat, it seems probable that some temporary scarcity or defect of vegetation has generally taken place, when the Sun has been without those appearances which we surmise to be the symptoms of a copious emission of light and heat. His presentation of his analysis is full of qualifications about:
He also addresses the concern that ‘the general fertility of the earth’ will depend on many other variables that are probably unrelated to ‘a certain quantity of sun beams’. In relation to this, he noted as follows: To this I only suggest, by way of answers, that those very circumstances of proper alternatives of rain, dry weather, winds, or whatever else may contribute to favour vegetation in this climate, may possibly depend on a certain quantity of sun beams, transmitted to us at proper times. In her biography of her Grandfather, Sir William Herschel, Lady Constance Lubbock records that her Grandfather was subject to much criticism and some ridicule. Generally speaking, the Royal Society reacted with almost total derision, even though Herschel was one of its most distinguished members. Things got so bad that he had to cancel a series of public lectures planned for later in 1801; such was the public derision of his theory.2 In October 1802 Henry Brougham, then aged 25, launched the Edinburgh Review. It was to become one of the most influential British magazines of the 19th century. He had already been elected a Fellow of the Royal Society; he was a distinguished barrister; an up and coming Whig, i.e. free market politician and prolific man of letters. Henry Brougham quickly became known as the foremost contributor to the Edinburgh Review. He wrote articles on everything: science, politics, colonial policy, literature, poetry, surgery, mathematics and the fine arts. In the second issue of the Edinburgh Review in January 1803, Brougham (Brougham 1803) published a review of several papers that William Herschel had presented to the Royal Society in the previous few years and published in the Royal Society’s Transactions. It is a highly personal attack on William Herschel, mocking him for the great variety of Ancient Greek names he gave the celestial bodies, including the new term “asteroid”. The article is an unrelenting ridicule of William Herschel and many of the discoveries and insights he reported to the Royal Society. Brougham saves his most vindictive comment about Herschel’s theory of a relationship between variable solar activity and the price of wheat. Henry Brougham wrote: To the speculations of the Doctor on the nature of the Sun, contained in the last volume [of the Transactions of the Royal Society], we have many similar objections but they are eclipsed by the grand absurdity which he has committed in his hasty and erroneous theory concerning the influence of the solar spots on the price of grain. Sir Joseph Banks, the President of the Royal Society, implored William Herschel to ignore the ‘darts’ of Henry Brougham, assuring William that “….nothing can affect and overturn truths and discoveries founded on experience and observation.” Henry Brougham would rise far in politics becoming Lord Chancellor and Baron Brougham in 1830, receiving a second peerage 30 years later. In 2004 Solar Physics published a paper by Lev Pustilnik, an astrophysicist at Tel Aviv University, and Gregory Yom Din, an agricultural economist at Haifa University, also in Israel (Pustilnik and Yom Din 2004). The paper reported their analysis of records of the price of wheat in England from 1259 to 1702 in relation to the established sunspot record. They found that Herschel was right: the cost of wheat was high in medieval England during periods when there were hardly any sunspots, and low during solar maxima. Their source of data on prices was the 50-year research of Professor Thorold Rogers (Rogers 1887) who collected data on England’s agricultural prices for the 450-year period (1259–1702). Roger’s data were drawn principally from the account books of numerous English monasteries, and in part from those of landowners. The following year Solar Physics published a second paper by the two authors extending their analysis to wheat prices in the US during the 20th century (Pustilnik and Yom Din 2005). The authors recorded their surprise, finding a relationship between numbers of sunspots and the price of wheat, just like Sir William hypothesised. The authors did not expect to see a sunspot connection due to modern technologies that make crops more robust in unfavourable weather; globalised markets; and the massive economic disruption that occurred during the two world wars. They reasoned that these factors should have cancelled out any variation in the data attributable to a sunspot effect. They surmise that the effect persists because 70% of US durum wheat grows in one part of North Dakota, where localised weather conditions could have a dramatic impact on total production. Attachment 3 “Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature” by Mike Lockwood and Claus Frohlich in Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences June 2007. See http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/h844264320314105/fulltext.pdf The authors' claim to demonstrate that since the mid 1980s the Earth’s surface air temperature has not responded to the solar cycle. The Royal Society states that the paper proves the “truth about global warming! The sun is not a factor in recent climate change!” The paper has several major weaknesses. The solar cycle is not just the 11 year one on which the authors focus. There are six well founded periods in solar variability: 1.3, 11, 22, 30 35, 88, and 179/205 years. The authors would have to evaluate each of these against the time series of the Earth’s temperature. They don’t. There are several key measures of solar output that have to be tested for the presence or absence of a relationship with temperate. Although the authors use three measures, they don’t use the one which has the statistically significant correlation with global average surface temperature over the relevant period from 1870 to the present. The one they should have used is the measure of the strength of the solar poloidal magnetic fields. The authors did not evaluate the total effects of the Sun on climate, namely the effects of the Sun’s changing output of radiation and matter, its changing electromagnetic and gravitational fields, its changing shape and the interactions between these five variables. The authors must evaluate total solar effects if they wish to determine the extent to which the Sun is or is not a factor in climate change, including recent climate change. There are several well documented time lags between solar activity and the climate response. These range from a few years to a century. The authors did not consider time lags at all. The authors merely report their result by the visual display of two graphs. Science requires higher standards of confirmation of the asserted relationship between time series. Science requires that authors conduct the relevant time series analysis together with tests of significance. The two time series are non linear in that the relationship between the variables of which each is composed contains multiplicative elements. The two time series are also non stationary in that the measures within each are interrelated. The authors would therefore have to use a methodology such as Empirical Mode Decomposition which does not assume that the time series subject to the analysis and tests of significance is non linear or non stationary. It may be useful to establish the extent (if any) of a correlation between solar activity and global average surface temperature. However, this is not sufficient to establish the extent (if any) that the Sun is a factor in recent climate change. It has been established that the impacts of total solar variability are highly complex, differential, and interacting throughout the four dimensional structure of the Earth’s climate system. This system contains numerous non linear, some random some periodic, processes which amplify small solar effects, some of which operate in contrary directions. The authors have to evaluate these effects to come to a conclusion about the role of the Sun in climate change. The authors do not establish that since the mid 1980s the Earth’s surface air temperature has not responded to the solar cycle, or the non sequitur, “The sun is not a factor in recent climate change!” Therefore, the paper should not have been published in its current form. The editor and referees should have insisted that the authors address several relevant issues and commented on several relevant scientific papers on which they were silent. Had they, their conclusion would most probably have been different. It seems that when it comes to understanding the relationships between solar variability and climate dynamics the spirit of Henry Brougham’s, foolish tabloid style of science dominates the Royal Society rather than Sir Joseph Bank’s unyielding commitment to the canons of true science. Attachment 4 The Sun Directory: 2007 -> papers2007 2007 -> The environment in the news 2007 -> - 2007 -> Out On The Prairie Cowboys fall for each other in Ang Lee’s riveting, landmark “Brokeback Mountain.” 2007 -> An Extension Cord to mars 2007 -> Pricing Closing Price $3,578 (June 22) 52-Wk High $3,825 52-Wk Low $2,982 Market Data 2007 -> Weather Research Center 2007 -> Student enquiry teacher background information 2007 -> The environment in the news tuesday 31 July, 2007 unep and the Executive Director in the News 2007 -> Student enquiry hurricanes in the caribbean papers2007 -> Population dynamics and site fidelity of bottlenose dolphins (tursiops aduncus) in two estuaries in subtropical northern new south wales, australia Download 465.37 Kb. Share with your friends:
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