The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

2.Project Background 7

2.1Objectives 7

2.2Market Classification 7

2.3Looking at the Big Picture 8

2.4The Relationships Between the Emerging Markets 11

2.5The Distinction Between “Objects and Systems” and “Components” 13

2.6The Preliminary Market Filter 16

2.7Further Market Investigation and Forecasts 16

3.Transport Markets 20

3.1Market Summary 20

3.2Road Vehicles 20

3.2.1Sector background 20

3.2.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 21

3.2.3Market Forecasts by Sector 25

3.2.4The Impact on Copper 38

3.3Railways, Mass Transit Systems and the Marine Market 48

4.Energy Infrastructure 54

4.1Market Summary 54

4.2Renewable Energy in Context 54

4.3Wind Energy Generation 58

4.3.1Sector Background 58

4.3.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 61

4.3.3Market Forecasts by Sector 66

4.3.4The Impact on Copper 69

4.4Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation 71

4.4.1Sector Background 71

4.4.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 71

4.4.3Market Forecasts by Sector 74

4.4.4The Impact on Copper 78

4.5Other Renewables-Based and Distributed Electricity Generation 79

4.5.1Sector Background 79

4.5.2Concentrating Solar Power 80

4.5.3Marine Energy Generation 83

4.5.4Other Renewables-Based Electricity Generation 87

4.6Copper Use in All Renewables-Based and Distributed Generation 88

4.7Renewables-Based and Other Energy Efficient Desalination 91

4.7.1Sector Background 91

4.7.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 91

4.7.3Market Forecasts by Sector 93

4.7.4The Impact on Copper 96

4.8The Smart Grid, Electricity Transmission, Distribution and Storage 99

4.8.1Sector Background 99

4.8.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 99

4.8.3Market Forecasts and Impact on Copper 105

4.9Carbon Capture and Storage 106

4.9.1Sector Background 106

4.9.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 107

4.9.3Market Forecasts by Sector 112

4.9.4The Impact on Copper 116

5.Premise, Equipment and Other Markets 119

5.1Section Summary 119

5.2Premise Markets 119

5.2.1Sector Background 119

5.2.2Alternative Technical and Market Solutions 119

5.2.3Market Forecasts by Sector 127

5.2.4The Impact on Copper 131

5.3Equipment and Cross Market Technologies 148

5.3.1Sector Background 148

5.3.2Motors and Drive Systems 149

5.3.3Industrial Process Automation 159

5.3.4Power Electronics 160

5.3.5Other Electronics Business 165

5.3.6Energy Storage 165

5.3.7Market Forecasts by Sector 170

5.3.8The Impact on Copper 173

Figure 1: Society Goals and How They Affect Emerging Markets for Copper (1) 7

Figure 2: Society Goals and How They Affect Emerging Markets for Copper (2) 8

Figure 3: Society Goals and How They Affect Emerging Markets for Copper (3) 9

Figure 4: Society Goals and How They Affect Emerging Markets for Copper (4) 10

Figure 5: The Core Relationships Between Emerging Market Segments 12

Figure 6: Key Systems and Components in Emerging Market Segments 13

Figure 7: Emerging Markets for Copper: Stage 1 Filter (Objects and Systems) 14

Figure 8: Emerging Markets for Copper: Stage 1 Filter (Components) 15

Figure 9: GDP Forecast (2005 US$ billion) 18

Figure 10: Population Forecast (million) 18

Figure 11: GDP per Head (2005 US$ ‘0000) 18

Figure 12: Development Stages of Hybrid Vehicles 23

Figure 13: The Vehicle Electrification Path 23

Figure 14: Some Alternative Vehicle Models Planned 26

Figure 15: New Road Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000) 27

Figure 16: Alternative Road Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 27

Figure 17: Forecast Share of Output of Alternative Road Vehicles 28

Figure 18: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 29

Figure 19: Forecast Share of HEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output 29

Figure 20: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 31

Figure 21: Forecast Share of PHEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output 31

Figure 22: Battery Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 33

Figure 23: Share Forecast Share of BEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output 33

Figure 24: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 35

Figure 25: Share Forecast Share of FCEVs of All Alternative Vehicle Output 35

Figure 26 ICE Vehicle Output Forecast (‘000 vehicles) 37

Figure 27: Forecast Share of ICE Vehicles of All Vehicle Output 37

Figure 28: Forecast Share of ICE Vehicles with Enhanced Features 37

Figure 29: Schematic Diagram of a PHEV 38

Figure 30: Additional Copper per Vehicle (kg) 39

Figure 31: High Voltage Wiring in a PHEV 40

Figure 32: Materials Content of Li Batteries 42

Figure 33: Home Charging Infrastructure 43

Figure 34: Unpackaged Power Semiconductor Assembly for a DC to AC Inverter 46

Figure 35: Alternative Vehicle Incremental Market for Copper (kt Cu) 49

Figure 36: HEV Incremental Market for Copper (k Cu) 49

Figure 37: PHEV Incremental Market for Copper (kt Cu) 49

Figure 38: BEV Incremental Market for Copper (kt of Cu) 50

Figure 39: FCEV Incremental Market for Copper (kt Cu) 50

Figure 40: Enhanced ICV Incremental Market for Copper (kt Cu) 50

Figure 41: Incremental Vehicle Market for Copper by Vehicle Type (kt Cu) 51

Figure 42: Incremental Vehicle Market for Copper by Component Group (kt Cu) 51

Figure 43: Incremental Vehicle Market for Cu by Fabricated Product (kt of Cu) 52

Figure 44: Growth in Total Electricity Generating Capacity (GW ‘000) 56

Figure 45: Renewable Energy Electricity Generating Capacity (GW ‘000) 56

Figure 46: Growth in the Share of Renewables in Electricity Generating Capacity (GW ‘000) 56

Figure 47: Renewables-Based Electricity Generating Capacity by Type (GW) 60

Figure 48: Share of the Alternative Renewable Energy Technologies 60

Figure 49: Europe’s Share of Renewable Electricity Generating Capacity 60

Figure 50: Outline Scheme of Wind Generation Linked to the Grid 63

Figure 51: The Main Components of a Wind Turbine Generator 63

Figure 52: The Increasing Size of Wind Turbines 64

Figure 53: Cables Employed in an Onshore Wind Power System 65

Figure 54: Global Wind Power Capacity 1996-2009 67

Figure 55: Annual Installation of Wind Power Capacity 1996-2009 67

Figure 56: Forecast Wind Generating Capacity in Place (GW) 68

Figure 57: Forecast Installation of Wind Generating Capacity (GW) 68

Figure 58: Wind Power Market for Copper by Component Sector (kt Cu) 70

Figure 59: Wind Power Market for Copper by Fabricated Product (kt Cu) 70

Figure 60: Layout of a Typical Solar PV Park 72

Figure 61: CIGS Cells 74

Figure 62: Growth in Installed Solar PV Capacity 2000-2009 75

Figure 63: World and European PV markets in 2009 76

Figure 64: Forecast Solar PV Generating Capacity in Place (GW) 77

Figure 65: Forecast Installation of Solar PV Generating Capacity (GW) 77

Figure 66: Solar PV Market for Copper by Component Sector (kt Cu) 78

Figure 67: Forecast Solar PV Market for Copper by Fabricated Product (kt Cu) 78

Figure 68: Alternative CSP Technologies 81

Figure 69: Installed CSP Electricity Generating Capacity in 2009 82

Figure 70: The Concentrating Solar Power Market 83

Figure 71: Oscillating Water Column Generator 84

Figure 72: Pelamis Wave Power Generator 85

Figure 73: Other Renewables-Based Electricity Generation Markets 88

Figure 74: Renewables-Based Generation Market for Copper by Type (kt Cu) 90

Figure 75: Copper Use in Renewables Generation by Component Sector (kt Cu) 90

Figure 76: Copper Use in Renewables Generation by Fabricated Product (kt Cu) 90

Figure 77: The Underlying Dynamics for Desalination 94

Figure 78: Installed Desalination Capacity by Technology 94

Figure 79: Forecast Desalination Equipment Market 96

Figure 80: Forecast Copper Use in Desalination (kt Cu) 98

Figure 81: The Smart Grid and Lower Greenhouse Gas Emissions 99

Figure 82: Characteristics of the Smart Grid 100

Figure 83: Copper Sheathed Dynamic Cable Design and Sheath Testing 104

Figure 84: European CO2 Emissions Addressable by CCS 106

Figure 85: CCS to Deliver One-Fifth of the Lowest Cost CO2 Reduction by 2050 107

Figure 86: Schematic of a Carbon Capture and Storage Options 109

Figure 87: Main Routes to Carbon Capture 109

Figure 88: Status of CCS Component Technology Development 112

Figure 89: Global CCS Institute Asset Lifecycle Model 114

Figure 90: Asset Life Cycle stage of Integrated CCS Projects 114

Figure 91: Hypothetical Failure Scenarios for Integrated CCS Projects 114

Figure 92: Alternative CCS Roll Out Timelines 116

Figure 93: CCS Market Growth and Copper Use 117

Figure 94: Diagram of a Passivhaus 120

Figure 95: Size and Rate of Growth of the Population Aged Over 60 126

Figure 96: Forecast Percentage of Population Over 65 129

Figure 97: Population Over 65 Forecast (million) 129

Figure 98: Increase in Population Over 65 (million) 129

Figure 99: Dwellings in Place Forecast (million) 130

Figure 100: Residential Floor Space in Place (billion m2) 130

Figure 101: New Residential Completions Forecast (million) 130

Figure 102: New Residential Floor Space (million m2) 131

Figure 103: Copper in Residential Wiring in Place Forecast (kt Cu) 134

Figure 104: Incremental Rewiring - Base Scenario Forecast (kt Cu) 134

Figure 105: Incremental Rewiring - Advanced Scenario Forecast (kt Cu) 134

Figure 106: Forecast Incremental Wiring Associated With Green Technologies (kt Cu) 137

Figure 107: Smart Ageing Copper Consumption – Base Scenario (Kt Cu) 141

Figure 108: Smart Ageing, Copper Consumption per Ageing Population Addressed – Base Scenario (kg per Head) 141

Figure 109: Cumulative Smart Ageing Copper Installation per Total Ageing Population – Base Scenario (kg per Head) 141

Figure 110: Advanced Scenario Smart Ageing Copper Use in Europe 143

Figure 111: Forecast Copper in Heat Pumps (kt Cu) 148

Figure 112: Forecast Total Copper Use in Heat Pump Based and Other Green Technology Systems (kt Cu) 148

Figure 113: Potential Electricity Savings in Motor Systems in the EU 150

Figure 114: Electricity Savings Potential for Motor Driven Systems by Type of Equipment 150

Figure 115: A Diagram of the Electricity Savings Potential of an Industrial Pumping System 151

Figure 116: Implementation Timeline for EU MEPS 151

Figure 117: Comparison of International Motor Efficiency Standards 153

Figure 118: IE Efficiency Classes for 50 Hz 4-Pole Motors 153

Figure 119: Forecast Motor Market, Defined by Copper Content (Kt Cu) 155

Figure 120: Forecast CMR and Shaped Copper Conductor Motor Markets for Copper (Kt Cu) 157

Figure 121: The Role of Industrial Process Automation in Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 159

Figure 122: Forecast Power Electronics Market (constant US$ million) 163

Figure 123: Forecast Power Electronics Market (kt Cu) 164

Figure 124: Li-ion Batteries and Their Competitors 167

Figure 125: Possible Development Path for Fuel Cells 171

Figure 126: Forecast Copper in Emerging Energy Storage Markets (kt Cu) 171