The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper



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Tidal Power: Tidal power is a form of hydropower that converts the energy of tides into electricity or other useful forms of energy. The first large-scale tidal power plant, the Rance Tidal Power Station in France, started operation in 1966.
The big advantage of using tides as an energy source is that tides are more predictable than the wind or sun. It has big disadvantages as well. Development of tidal resources is highly expensive, there is a lack of sites with sufficiently high tidal ranges or flow velocities, and there is potential for a great deal of environmental damage.
Interest in tidal power has increased, as recent technological developments make the economics look much more feasible. The improvements are in design (e.g. dynamic tidal power, tidal lagoons) and turbine technology (e.g. new axial turbines, cross-flow turbines). These developments make it clear that the number of potential sites for using tidal power generation is much greater than once thought, and that economic and environmental costs are in an acceptable range. We briefly describe the different classes of tidal power system available below.

Tidal Stream Systems make use of the kinetic energy of moving water to power turbines, in a similar way to windmills that use moving air. The technology works best in where tidal ranges are greatest, as off Norway and Great Britain. This is a dynamic area of research and the technology is improving all the time. It is estimated that a full-scale Tidal Stream System will be able to produce 1 MW of electricity at Euro 5-8 per kW/hour.


Tidal Barrages are relatively more expensive than Tidal Stream Systems, and are likely to have high environmental impact. They make use of the potential energy resulting from the height difference between high and low tides. A dam with a sluice is constructed spanning a tidal inlet, or a section of a tidal estuary, creating a reservoir. At high tide sea water flows into the reservoir through a one way gate. The gate is closed when the tide is falling. When the low tide point is reached, the stored water is released to sea at pressure through turbines. The rotation of these turbines generates electricity.
This is not a well developed technology, but one project alone could leapfrog it into the realm of significant emerging projects. This is the planned Severn Barrage in the UK, intended to provide 5% of the country’s electricity needs. The project has government approval, and is necessary if UK targets on renewable energy sourcing for 2020 are to be met.
The plan is to construct the 10-mile long tidal barrage across the Severn Estuary incorporating some 200 turbines. The system, if it goes ahead, will work very much like a conventional hydroelectric power plant, falling water being used to drive turbines similar to those used with standard hydroelectric systems. There will be locks in the barrage to ensure access to the docks upstream, and possibly some devices to reduce environmental impact.
Damage to the environment, however, is likely to be severe. There is fierce opposition to the barrage by a coalition of 10 groups, including the National Trust, the RSPB and WWF, but interestingly not including Green Peace.
Dynamic Tidal Power forms a third tidal power option. It exploits a combination of potential and kinetic energy. The technology requires long dams (30-50 km) from the coast straight out to sea. The obstruction of tidal flow and tidal phase differences combine to create hydraulic head differences along the dam. Turbines in the dam are used to convert this difference into electricity.
Amongst technologies other than wave or tidal, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTC) offers some promise. This technology uses the temperature difference between deep (1,000 metre) and shallow waters to run a heat engine. As long as the temperature between the warm surface water and the cold deep water differs by about 20°C, an OTEC system can produce a significant amount of power. The technology is most suitable to tropical and subtropical conditions. The capital cost of installation of such a system would be extremely high, however, and the technology is still at the planning or feasibility study stage.
Salinity Gradient Energy also offers some potential. This takes advantage of the osmotic pressure differences between salt and fresh water, or waters of different salinity. It is the highest energy concentration (i.e. energy density) of all marine renewable energy sources, but has received relatively little attention since first proposed more than twenty years ago.
Market Forecasts by Sector and Impact on Copper
The number of projects under development is limited, so it is not expected that ocean power will become a major force in the near future. If current reduction and technology expansion continues, and trials of new and emerging technologies prove successful, then a much wider acceptance of ocean power will result.

The status of ocean power overall will be influenced by public attitude towards and the success in development of the Severn Barrage. The various plans for this project could bring capacity of 0.8 GW to 1.35 GW in a single scheme.


Construction is expected to start around 2016-2017 and to take seven or eight years. It is probable that copper relating to this project will be installed quite late scheme, meaning that it may fall outside the timeframe covered in this Report.
The amount of copper required for this Severn Barrage could be very substantial indeed. Unlike conventional hydroelectric schemes, the components of the system will have to deal with a saline environment. This potentially creates a need for the use of copper nickel alloys. Taking this into account, it is reasonable to assume that the Severn Barrage scheme may use copper at the rate of 2 tonnes per MW. This would mean copper use of 1.7 kt to 2.7 kt in just one project.
It is clear that there are not many potential Severn Barrage type projects to be found around the world. This being said, if the project is successful we may expect to see a rapid commercialisation of ocean power soon after its installation, making this an important emerging market for the 2020s.

      1. Other Renewables-Based Electricity Generation

To complete the picture, we include other renewable-based electricity generation in our assessment of copper use in the new energy markets. The market sectors concerned are small hydro, biomass and geothermal. We also include figures for wave and tidal power.


Small Hydro: This market consists of locally generated hydroelectricity on a small scale. Small hydro is an established technology, the facilities often being quite primitive. The main regional market for small hydro is China, this being quite a small source of electricity generation in Europe. Significant growth in capacity at a cumulative rate of 9.0% p.a. is forecast between 2010 and 2020, taking capacity from 102 GW to 242 GW.
Biomass: The biomass sector uses a variety of plant and animal materials as an energy source. Where grown specially for the purpose, this is a sustainable form of electricity generation, although not necessarily clean. Biomass electricity generation is an established technology. Many older facilities are primitive, although there is modern development in the biomass sector. This is especially the case in Europe, which has quite a large share of the biomass market. At 7.5% p.a., the rate of growth in biomass generating capacity is expected to fall behind other types of distributed electricity generation. We forecast growth in capacity from 62 GW to 127 GW between 2010 and 2020.
Geothermal: The opportunity to capture geothermal power for electricity is limited to a few locations around the globe. This is, therefore, a relatively minor form of electricity generation. We forecast a fairly modest 7.2% p.a. rate of growth in geothermal capacity from11 GW to 22 GW between 2010 and 2020.
Tidal & Wave: Developments in ocean power are reviewed in Section 3.5.3. This is at present a very small market, but one with a great deal of potential long term. Installed capacity at present is just 0.3 GW. There will be small projects coming on-stream over the next decade, but real expansion should come only in the 2020s, starting with the 0.83-1.3 GW Severn Barrage project in the United Kingdom.
Combined New Capacity: Taking the four groups of electricity generation types considered above, we forecast combined new capacity installation of 14 GW in 2010, rising to 24 GW in 2020. This reflects a compound growth rate of 7.5% p.a.
Figure 73: Other Renewables-Based Electricity Generation Markets




Copper Use: Combined copper use in the other renewable category is forecast to rise from 20 kt in 2010 to 51 kt in 2020. Europe’s share and growth is expected to be modest.



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