The environment in the news friday, 2 November, 2012

In less than two generations, Alaska's North Slope communities have evolved from a traditional subsistence lifestyle to a partial Western cash economy.

"We no longer function in an isolated barter economy or rely totally on subsistence as our ancestors did," Olgoonik Corp.'s Patkotak explained. "Our households are transitioning between the old and the new, holding strong to traditional Inupiat values while acknowledging the reality of living in a cash-based society."

That evolution was accelerated in 1968 when Atlantic-Richfield Co. discovered a massive oil field at Prudhoe Bay in northeastern Alaska. To make it easier for eager energy companies to secure rights of way in the oil-rich region, the federal government settled its ongoing battles with Native leaders over aboriginal land claims.

However, modern-day conveniences have been slow to arrive in some remote Native villages. Wainwright, for example, just converted from portable toilets, locally called honey pots, to a municipal sewer and water system in the past two years.

Alaska Native village residents also say they need oil for heat and to run their four-wheelers and snowmobiles. They crave flat-screen TVs, cellphones and other modern appliances that require cash. Those modern-day products are shipped to the remote villages through an annual delivery or via expensive air freight. Most rural Alaska communities are not connected to the state road system.

In isolated villages where jobs are scarce and temperatures tend to stay below zero all winter, the two worlds can be difficult to reconcile.

"You're paying $7, $8 or even $14 a gallon for heating oil and $14 to $15 for milk -- if you can get it fresh," said Kotzebue's Joule, who is running for mayor of the Northwest Arctic Borough. "Sometimes the decision lies between cash available to heat or to feed."

Changing Arctic 'a real-time priority'

As ship traffic increases along Alaska's coasts, the villages are calling for the Coast Guard to do a better job of policing the offshore waters. They want the government to establish international shipping lanes along their shores. So far, relief has been slow to arrive.

June Walunga, secretary of the Gambell village tribal council on St. Lawrence Island, said her people feel increasingly vulnerable as they watch ships in the Bering Sea pass close to their shores.

"The island is right in the middle, in the pathway of the shipping lanes from the Arctic," Walunga said at the Girdwood conference.

"Our village is not prepared to rescue large vessels or if there's a collision. Nor are we equipped to monitor or communicate with any of the foreign vessels to warn them or report them to the Coast Guard if they venture too close."

This summer, the Coast Guard brought two helicopters, a medium-strength icebreaker, a national security cutter and two buoy cutters to the Arctic to respond to any emergencies along Alaska's expansive north and west coasts.

But that fleet won't be enough to handle the fast-changing Arctic, conceded Rear Adm. Thomas Ostebo, commander of the Coast Guard's 17th District. At the Arctic conference, he noted that a record 95 ships were traveling through the Arctic during the last week of August.

"It's a real-time priority for the nation to get our arms around the things that are going on in the Arctic," he said. "We know that we're not controlling this. I think the U.S. is late to the table."

Washington appears to be waking up to the growing needs of Alaska, the nation's only Arctic state. In 2011, the White House set up an interagency working group to coordinate federal oversight of energy development projects in Alaska. This summer, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton promised to craft a comprehensive U.S. Arctic strategy plan.

Meanwhile, the state of Alaska is developing its own Arctic strategy through a commission created early this year by the state Legislature. State lawmakers are urging creation of a public-private port authority to develop a network of harbors along Alaska's north and west shores. They're also working with the Army Corps of Engineers and military leaders to consider the best location for at least one deepwater port in the region.

As industry and the state and federal governments begin to draft plans for radical changes in Alaska's Arctic region, the Native groups that live in the region insist they should be consulted every step of the way.

"It's about local empowerment," Joule said. "People need to be made aware that we're not here to block or stop development, but to find a balance in how that development occurs. Because at some point, some of that comes at too steep of a price to pay."

Before the federal government cut funding for it earlier this year, the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy warned that climate change would be costly for Canada - in the range of $5 billion a year by 2020, it estimated in a report last May.

If events of the last several days are any indication, that estimate might not go far enough. Climate change is not something that will happen at some point in the distant future. It is happening now, in the form of rapidly melting sea ice, warming oceans, erosion and melting tundra and it is already costly. We can also expect to see more extreme weather events, extreme examples of which we have seen in recent days. How Canada adapts to and copes with climate change should be a matter of urgent national debate.

Early estimates put damage from hurricane Sandy in the U.S. in the $20-billion range, which is significantly less than the $135-billion cost of hurricane Katrina, according to the Greater New Orleans Community Data Centre. The amount of damage one storm - albeit a massive storm - can unleash should be a warning of the kind of weather-related damage both Canadians and Americans could be seeing more of in the future.

Closer to home, the washout of roads in Wawa in northern Ontario after a massive rainfall and flood late last week caused more than $10 million in damage, according to local officials.

The events occurred within days of each other and are two examples of the kind of increasingly extreme weather that forecasters say we can expect in coming years because of warming oceans and other effects of climate change. Although it is difficult to link individual weather events to climate change, there is growing evidence linking the increasing frequency of extreme weather to climate change.

A report released earlier this year from Intact Financial Corporation and the University of Waterloo urged policy-makers to push climate change adaptation to the forefront of decision making. It predicted rising temperatures across the country and fluctuations in precipitation levels, among other things. "It is quite clear that there will be serious implications for Canadians if we stand still while our weather patterns continue to evolve," said Feridun Hamdullahpur, who is president and vice-chancellor of Waterloo.

The federal government has supported climate change adaptation. Canada recently committed $150 million over five years to 10 different programs aimed at better understanding how climate change will affect Canadians. That is good, but it is now time to get more serious about understanding and adapting to a reality that is now upon us.

Bananas could be set to become the new potatoes, as global warming affects growing patterns around the world, a new report on world agriculture suggests.

Rising temperatures in some places may improve the productivity of bananas, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research says. At the same time, climate change could be bad news for potatoes in many areas, because they prosper in cooler climates.

"Warmer winters, especially, may provide an opening for bananas in places that currently grow potatoes," the report says. "Warmer weather can also reduce the time between planting and harvest for bananas, further increasing production."

While potatoes are the planet's fourth-largest food crop and are suited to cooler climates, more than half of them are grown in countries such as India and China.

Not a silver bullet

With warmer temperatures, the report suggests, there could be an opening for more banana production at higher altitudes, providing there is sufficient rainfall.

"It's not necessarily a silver bullet, but there may be places where as temperatures increase, bananas might be one option that small-holders could start to look at," Philip Thornton, one of the people behind the report, told BBC News.

Still, a lot will depend on the availability of water, and "extensive research needs to formulate targeted, region-by-region approaches that recalibrate agricultural production according to the effects of climate change," the report says.

Crop yields of grains such as corn and wheat may suffer as the world warms, sending prices higher and making warmer-climate crops more attractive.

CBC: No ‘smoking gun’ in Fraser River sockeye salmon collapse

There is "no smoking gun" to explain the "steady and profound" decline of the Fraser River sockeye, according to the B.C. Supreme Court justice who led a two and half year inquiry into the collapse.

But in his final report released today in Vancouver, Justice Bruce Cohen lays out 75 recommendations, including the shutdown of dozens of fish farms on the sockeye migration route, if they’re found to be too risky.

In a hefty, three-volume report spanning more than a thousand pages, Cohen says that “the idea that a single event or stressor is responsible for the 1992-2009 declines in Fraser River sockeye is appealing but improbable.”

Instead, Cohen says a string of cumulative factors likely played a role, such as contaminants in the Fraser River, development along its shores, and ocean conditions that may have contributed to long-term decline as well.

"Climate change and warming waters present perhaps the most daunting long-term threat to the Fraser River sockeye fishery," Cohen wrote.

DFO conflict of interest

Cohen also identified a potential conflict in the job of the federal Fisheries Department, which both promotes and regulates B.C.'s fish farms.

"As long as DFO has a mandate to promote salmon farming, there is a risk that it will act in a manner that favours the interests of the salmon farming industry over the health of wild fish stocks."

Salmon farms along the sockeye migration route in the Discovery Islands — amounting to dozens of farm sites — have the potential to introduce exotic diseases and to aggravate diseases endemic to the wild fish.

"Mitigation measure should not be delayed in the absence of scientific certainty."

Cohen recommends a freeze on new open-net salmon farm production in the Discovery Islands until September 2020.

"If by that date DFO cannot confidently say the risk of serious harm to wild stocks is minimal, it should then prohibit all net-pen salmon farms from operating in the Discovery Islands."

Cohen also took a jab at the Harper government, writing that he was troubled by the recent amendments to the environmental assessment process and the Fisheries Act, because experts he heard from emphasized the importance of protecting fish habitat.

He says it's "regrettable" the Harper government put them through without the benefit of the final report from his commission.

Cohen appointed in 2009

The report comes after Cohen held several months of hearings, collected more than three million pages of documents and heard from 179 witnesses at the $25-million inquiry.

Cohen was appointed to lead the inquiry by Prime Minister Stephen Harper after only 1.4 million of the highly prized salmon returned to spawn in 2009. Approximately 10 million sockeye were expected to return to the river that year.

The huge shortfall forced the closure of the commercial, recreational and aboriginal sockeye fisheries on the river over the summer, and raised questions about the long-term survival of B.C.'s salmon stocks.

Although only a fraction of the fish that were forecast showed up in 2009, the 2010 run saw 35 million sockeye, the biggest run since 1913. About 4.5 million returned in 2011 and just 2.3 million in 2012.

The offspring of those few sockeye that made it back in 2009 are now out in the ocean and are due to form the run for the summer of 2013.

“Great ideas come from anywhere, and small and medium enterprises are incredible sources of creative ideas that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and demonstrate that clean technology is an increasingly important element of our economy,” said Eric Newell, chair of the Climate Change and Emissions Management Corp. (CCEMC), which invests funds collected from carbon-emitting industries, such as power plants and oilsands facilities.

Firms received up to $500,000 in support for each of the 13 announced projects, which had an overall value of $34 million.

SALT Canada is drilling 1,800 wells into the regional Wood Buffalo landfill and will later inject compressed air throughout the site. The anaerobic bacteria that produce methane will perish in the presence of oxygen and aerobic bacteria will naturally take their place, transforming the organic material into a “compost-like” material about 30 times faster — in four years rather than 120.

“We have 560 wells in right now and we will get into the operational stage by 2014,” said John Baxter, SALT Canada president. “This is in situ composting which optimizes the degradation of the organics in a controlled manner. There are 14 smaller sites using this technology in the United States, but this is Canada’s first.”

And cold winters are a big plus, since quick degradation creates a lot of heat.

“We won’t have to put in coolers, which should lower the cost,” he added.

When the process is complete, the site will be mined and the material taken to a waste-for-energy project that is also being developed.

Other innovative projects included the development of a process catalyst which mimics nature. Montreal-based CO2 Solutions has made a version of the carbonic anhydrase enzyme found in the human digestive system and just about everywhere in nature. The enzyme converts carbon dioxide to bicarbonate and in an industrial setting will reduce costs by 40 per cent for systems that use solvents to capture CO2.

“The issue with solvent technology is the cost barrier, it is very expensive. So by using this enzyme we open up a whole new series of solvents and bring down the capture cost,” said Glenn Kelly, chief executive of CO2 Solutions Inc.

Other projects include Vancouver-based Saltworks Technologies Inc.’s desalination process, which would use waste heat to treat water used in steam assisted gravity drainage oilsands projects.

Landmark Group received support for its $2.5 million NetZero project to design and demonstrate for production 50 energy-efficient homes across the province.

The goal is to show buyers and other home-building firms the advantages of homes which consumer little to no energy.

Newell said while many of the projects can significantly reduce carbon emissions in the short term, others in early stages of development have great potential to change the marketplace.

“That is the real prize here, reducing the emissions, reducing the cost of the technologies and seeing the businesses behind them grow and prosper,” he said.

The clean technology industry now employs 52,000 people and is growing at 17 per cent each year.

Since 2007, Alberta companies that produce more than 100,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases have had to reduce emissions by 12 per cent. Companies unable to meet that requirement have the option to pay a fee of $15 per tonne over their limit into the CCEMC’s research fund.

David Lewin, vice chair of CCEMC, said no other country has such a program and the idea of stimulating research with the cash is attracting wide attention.

“People from other countries come here” and are surprised at how well it is working, he said.

The 13 projects announced Wednesday are from CCEMC’s fifth round of funding.

 A huge storm barrels down on the United States, wreaking havoc with punishing winds, record flooding, heavy snowfall and massive blackouts. Is the main culprit climate change or a freak set of coincidences?

Some scientists say that the key to Sandy’s impact may be an extremely rare clash of weather systems, rather than the warmer temperatures that scientists have identified in other hurricanes and storms.

“It’s a hybrid storm, which combines some features of tropical hurricanes with some features of winter storms, that operate on quite different mechanisms,” said Kerry Emanuel, a professor of Atmospheric Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

While Emanuel said that there is a clear link between climate change and general trends toward more intense tropical hurricanes, in the case of Sandy more long-term study is required to determine whether climate change played a major role.

Other scientists say climate change likely aggravated whatever unique circumstances produced Sandy. They include the global warming that has caused ocean temperatures and sea levels to rise, contributing to more destructive flooding and other damage.

“Sea level rise makes storm surges worse and will continue to do so in the future,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics of the oceans at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam, Germany.

World sea levels have risen by 20 centimeters (8 inches) in the past 100 years, a trend blamed on melting ice and expanding water in the oceans caused by rising temperatures. “Every centimeter adds to damage,” Rahmstorf said.

Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, said the jury was still out.

“There are clearly changes in the environment that all of these storms are occurring in,” he said. As for Sandy, however, a lot of the weather conditions that lined up were due to a “crap shoot.” A hybrid storm can be an explosive storm, “what we might call a meteorological bomb,” without the influence of climate change.

HURRICANE, OR WINTER STORM?

Sandy began as a late-season hurricane coming up from the Caribbean in what many experts believe were conditions fueled by unusually warm water temperatures for this time of year. It then joined forces with a large Arctic weather system, which increased its size and transformed it into a winter storm with far more power than would otherwise have been expected.

The third unusual element was a high pressure system off Canada’s east coast that blocked Sandy’s escape route. While hurricanes usually turn eastward, the system forced Sandy to make a very sharp left turn and slam into the New Jersey coast.

“Many, many hurricanes have threatened the east coast of the United States over many, many years,” said David Nolan, an associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami. “Virtually all of them move up the coast and eventually turn to the right and head out to sea.”

Nolan said there would likely have been a winter storm forming at about this time. Because Sandy happened to be coming up the coast at exactly the right moment, it gave that storm a head start.

“Instead of starting from nothing, the storm is starting from a circulation as strong as a hurricane,” he said.

Scientists also note that world temperatures in September rivaled 2005, the year hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, as the warmest in modern records, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

And a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this month said that chances of Atlantic hurricanes were higher in warmer years stretching back to 1923.

Warmer temperatures also mean that the atmosphere can hold more moisture, bringing more rain in many areas. A U.N. report this year predicted that a higher proportion of the world’s rain would fall in downpours during the 21st century, making floods more likely.

“The latest research suggests that a warming climate will lead to more extreme weather events such as flooding rains and drought,” said Michael Rawlins, who manages the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts - Amherst.

Rahmstorf said a record thaw of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in September also might have helped build up high pressure in the North Atlantic that drove Sandy westward.

“I would be very cautious,” he said. “But there is reason to suspect that there could be a connection between the record sea ice loss this summer and the path of this storm.”

Recent research indicates that greenhouse gases have raised the chances of some events, such as the Texas heatwave of 2011 or a European heatwave in 2003 that killed perhaps 70,000 people. Scientists said it was too early to know if there was a link for Sandy.

All debate aside, U.S. states still reeling from Sandy say they need to take a lesson from the increased threat of monster storms. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he has no doubt there are more extreme weather events.

“That’s not a political statement; it’s a factual statement,” Cuomo said after a tour of New York City’s ravaged infrastructure. New Yorkers will have to deal with “a new reality” when it comes to weather patterns, he said.

02 November 2012