http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27kristof.html?sq=climate%20change&st=nyt&scp=2&pagewanted=print

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27kristof.html?sq=climate%20change&st=nyt&scp=2&pagewanted=print

Narwhals more at risk to Arctic warming than polar bears

The polar bear has become an icon of global warming vulnerability, but a new study found an Arctic mammal that may be even more at risk to climate change: the narwhal.

The narwhal, a whale with a long spiral tusk that inspired the myth of the unicorn, edged out the polar bear for the ranking of most potentially vulnerable in a climate change risk analysis of Arctic marine mammals.

The study was published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Ecological Applications. Polar bears are considered marine mammals because they are dependent on the water and are included as a species in the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act.

Scientists from three countries quantified the vulnerabilities that 11 year-round Arctic sea mammals have as the world warms. After the narwhal — which is also known as the "corpse whale" — and polar bear, the most at risk were the hooded seal, bowhead whale and walrus. The ringed seal and bearded seal were least at risk.

"What we wanted to do was look at the whole picture because there's been a lot of attention on polar bears," said study co-author Ian Stirling, a polar bear and seal specialist for the Canadian government. "We're talking about a whole ecosystem. We're talking about several different species that use ice extensively and are very vulnerable."

The study looked at nine different variables that help determine ability to withstand future climate changes. Those factors included population size, habitat uniqueness, diet diversity and ability to cope with sea ice changes.

This doesn't mean the narwhal — with a current population of 50,000 to 80,000 — will die off first; polar bear counts are closer to 20,000 and they are directly harmed by melting ice, scientists said.

But it does mean the potential for harm is slightly greater for the less-studied narwhal, said study lead author Kristin Laidre, a research scientist at the University of Washington.

Stanford University biologist Terry Root, who wasn't part of the study, said the analysis reinforces her concern that the narwhal "is going to be one of the first to go extinct" from global warming despite their population size.

"There could a bazillion of them, but if the habitat or the things that they need are not going to be around, they're not going to make it," Root said.

Polar bears can adapt a bit to the changing Arctic climate, narwhals can't, she said.

While polar bears are "good-looking fluffy white creatures," Laidre said narwhals, which are medium-sized whales, are "not that cute."

The narwhal, which dives about 6,000 feet to feed on Greenland halibut, is the ultimate specialist, evolved specifically to live in small cracks in parts of the Arctic where it's 99 percent heavy ice, Laidre said. As the ice melts, not only is the narwhal habitat changed, predators such as killer whales will likely intrude more often.

"Since it's so restricted to the migration routes it takes, it's restricted to what it eats, it makes it more vulnerable to the loss of those things," Laidre said in a telephone interview from Greenland, where she is studying narwhals by airplane.

The paper is the talk of Arctic scientists said Bob Corell, the head of an international team of scientists who wrote a massive assessment of risk in the Arctic in 2004 but wasn't part of this study. He called it "surprising because the polar bear gets a lot of attention."

Inuit natives of Greenland were telling scientists last year that it seemed that the narwhal population was in trouble, Corell said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080426/ap_on_sc/climate_arctic_animals&printer=1;_ylt=AsHGZ8lC0ShsIb5H1OYLhClxieAA

New light bulb standards may push up prices

Published: Sunday, April 27, 2008

OTTAWA -- Canadians could pay more for light bulbs and may not even have access to certain types of lights because of a worldwide shortage when new national light bulb efficiency standards come into effect in 2012.

In documents obtained through Access to Information, those issues were raised by the lighting industry with the government because of Canada's push to phase out inefficient light bulbs by 2012.

The government and the lighting industry had a summit in Toronto last June and documents out of that meeting and follow up ones show there is still concern about some of the details of how inefficient light bulbs -- typically incandescents -- will be replaced and at what cost.

In one document, government consultants said they assume price and supply will not be effected, but a government notation in the margin says "manufacturers are telling us that with the global push to go to CFLs (Compact Fluorescent Lights), there would be a shortage of material and final products so prices may go up. Hard to say to what extent though."

Wayne Edwards, the vice-president of Electrical Equipment Manufacturer Association of Canada, said it is likely prices will increase after 2012.

"For sure. Electronics that go into the ballast (the base) in CFLs can be and are in short supply. Some lamps may be in very short supply and may not be available."

In government notes from the lighting summit it also has comments from industry participants: "There is a shortage of raw material to produce CFLs today (phosphor, etc.)." Another part of the document states that "global supply may be an issue if many jurisdictions attempt to implement similar standards at the same time. This problem could be compounded if (due to longer lifetimes for bulbs) the long-term demand is lower than initial demand," a document noted.

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), which is the department leading the phase out program, is aware that because not just Canada, but the U.S. the EU and other countries are all trying to phrase out inefficient bulbs all around the same time frame, that it may have an impact on product availability and prices.

"We've heard it and we're concerned enough to try to get enough international work on it to see if it is going to be an issue," said John Cockburn, Senior Chief of Energy Efficiency Standards with NRCan. But Mr. Cockburn noted that TCP, a company that makes about 70 per cent of CFLs for the U.S. market, has said it doesn't foresee any problem in meeting increased demand.

But he does acknowledge that lighting manufacturers have a big job ahead of them as they bring in new types of lights to replace the old incandescents. "They are feeling challenged and that is good. But they are used to challenges." But he did add that he couldn't "speak to supply problems."

Last September, Edward's association sent NRCan a letter saying the government's timeline to phase out the bulbs doesn't allow the industry enough time to retool plants, create new products and production lines.

"Our members are saying this still cannot be done," he added. "We continue to point out to the powers (that be) that we hear you but we don't think it will be done for all these various reasons.

"This is like asking the car manufacturers to have every car be a hybrid by 2012. It is exactly the same scenario."

The U.S. adopted a federal energy bill last December which also phases out traditional incandescent light bulbs between 2012 and 2014. Cockburn said that law should help manufacturers meet the Canadian market demand, because the standards will be very similar. The Canadian lighting industry had been very concerned that without international harmonization on lighting standards that Canada, a relatively small market, might have trouble getting producers to create lights to this country's standards.

The documents also noted another possible reason for the price of bulbs potentially rising. CFLs contain small amounts of mercury, a toxic substance that needs to be disposed of properly. Stores that sell CFLs are being encouraged to have recycling programs, which Home Depot and Ikea do, but one participant to the lighting summit said: "Several participants commented that Canada should require that CFL suppliers organize recycling programs. Another participant noted that could add 25 cents to the cost per bulb."

Beyond the pricing and supply issue, the documents also note that there will be a huge amount of work to educate consumers about the flood of new lighting products on the markets and new lighting standards such as the use of the term lumens -- a measure of the perceived power of light -- instead of watts -- which is a unit of power.

"The challenge for industry and government has to be to characterize the performance in light so that people get what they want and this is the big challenge. Because there will be an incredible change in terms of the array of choices and we are going to have to think different in terms of how we choose light bulbs."

Facts:

CFLs make up five per cent.

At least 27 per cent of Canadian homes now have at least once CFL.

Compact fluorescents use about 75 per cent less energy than incandescent bulbs.

Main types of lighting available:

Incandescent

Tungsten Halogen

Fluorescent (including CFLs)

LEDs (light emitting diodes)

Only about 10 per cent of the energy used by an incandescent bulb goes in to producing light. The other 90 per cent is released as heat.

A super incandescent bulb, twice as efficient as current bulbs, is expected to be available by 2010 and to reach efficiency levels of the CFLs by 2012.

Current incandescent lamps on average last 1,000 hours and CFLs 6,000.

GE manufactures some lamp products in Canada (Oakville, Ont.), tubular fluorescent and some types of incandescent

Osram manufactures some tubular fluorescent types in Drummondville, Que.

Philips no longer manufactures in Canada.

CFL's typically are all manufactured in Asia for the North American market.

(Source Marbek Resource Consultants/NRCan/Electrical Equipment Manufactuerers Association of Canada)

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