The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth



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Figure S10. Autocorrelation (blue) for innovation series from statistical model fits for NH (left) and Global (right) mean temperature residuals. Results are shown for both (top) all-forcing case (where residual represents internal variability only) and (bottom) anthropogenic-only forcing case (where residual represents total natural variability). The dashed red curves indicate the two-sided 95% significance levels.



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