Adamantiadis ’22 [Christos; April 13; CEO of Marsh Middle East and Africa; Arabian Business, “A disorderly climate transition will exacerbate inequalities,” https://www.arabianbusiness.com/opinion/a-disorderly-climate-transition-will-exacerbate-inequalities] SPark
A green-energy transition is at the core of the net-zero agenda. Yet shifting away from carbon-intense industries, which currently employ millions of workers in developing economies and fill government coffers, can trigger economic volatility, deepen unemployment and increase societal and geopolitical tensions. Inaction is also not an option: in the mid-to-long term, those same countries risk losing competitive advantage through a higher cost of carbon, reduced resilience, failure to keep up with technological innovation and limited leverage in trade agreements.
To complicate matters further, the hasty adoption of new environmental policies and technologies could have unintended consequences for nature and there are still many unknown risks from deploying untested biotechnical and geoengineering technologies.
Additionally, a lack of public support for land use transitions or new pricing schemes risks creating political complications that further slow action.
Geopolitical risks
These new uncertainties about achieving energy security and equity whilst transitioning to renewables represent a mounting risk of a disorderly climate transition, slowed by social, political and economic complexities.
It is an intricate set of dynamics that risks creating a kaleidoscope of energy-transition trajectories, each with different speeds and complications.
If there is a sustained lack of coordination between countries, we will likely see profound geopolitical implications, with rising friction between strong decarbonisation advocates and those who oppose quick, decisive action.
A transition that fails to account for societal implications may only exacerbate inequalitieswithin and between countries, heightening geopolitical frictions. And the impact of geopolitical frictions is brought starkly into focus as the Russia-Ukraine conflict plays out.