This document presents the Department of Defense’s (DoD) roadmap for developing and employing unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs) over the next 25 years

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Executive Summary ii

Table of Contents iv

List of Figures v

List of Tables v

1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Purpose 1

1.2 Approach 1

1.3 Scope 2

2.0 Current UAV Programs 3

2.1 Operational UAV Systems 3

2.2 Developmental UAV Systems 4

2.3 Other UAV Systems 6

2.4 UAV Program Timelines 10

3.0 Requirements 13

3.1 Warfighters’ Roles for UAVs 13

3.2 Requirements Association with UAVs 14

4.0 Technologies 17

4.1 Platforms 18

4.2 Payloads 23

4.3 Communication 33

4.4 Information Processing 35

4.5 Current UAV Technologies Research 38

5.0 Operations 42

5.1 Operations Requirements 42

5.2 Operational Concepts Development 44

5.3 Reliability & Sustainability 46

5.4 Training 46

5.5 Communication Infrastructure 48

5.6 Cooperative UAV Flight 48

6.0 Roadmap 51

6.1 Operational Metrics 51

6.2 UAV Roadmap for 2000-2025 53

6.3 Comparative Costs of Manned vs. Unmanned Aircraft 53

6.4 Key Issues 57

6.5 Conclusions 61

Appendix 1

Lead Agency: US Army CECOM, Space and Terrestrial Communications Directorate 25

List of Figures

Figure 2.4-1: DoD Annual Funding Profile for UAVs. 11

Figure 2.4-2: Timeline of Current and Planned DoD UAV Platforms. 11

Figure 3.1-1: IPL Priorities link to UAV Missions. 13

Figure 4.1-1: UAV Platform Requirements. 18

Figure 4.1.2-1. IHPTET and VAATE Program Goals and Trends 19

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Figure 4.1.2-2: Specific Fuel Consumption Trends. 20

Figure 4.1.2-3 Mass Specific Power Trends. 21

Figure 4.2-1: UAV Payload Requirements. 24

Figure 4.2.3-2: Forecast of Amount of Bandwidth Continuously Processable. 29

Figure 4.3-1: UAV Communications Requirements. 33

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Figure 4.3-2: Airborne Data Link Data Rate Trends. 34

Figure 4.4-1: UAV Information Processing requirements. 35

Figure 4.4-2: Autonomous Control Level Trend. 36

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Figure 4.4-3: Processor Speed Trend. 37

Figure 5.1-1: UAV Operations Requirements. 42

Figure 5.3-1: Israeli UAV mishap causes. 46

Figure 5.4-1: Relative Demand in Actual vs. Simulated Flight Training. 47

Figure 6.2-1: UAV Roadmap, 2000-2025. 54

List of Tables

Table 2.2.3-1: Summary History of Recent UAV Programs. 6

Table 2.4-2: Classes of Worldwide Military Reconnaissance UAVs. 12

Table 3.2-1: UAV Mission Areas 14

Table 3.2-2: CINC/Service UAV Mission Prioritization Matrix--2000 15

Table 3.2-3: SOCOM UAV Mission Prioritization Matrix--2000 16

Table 4.2.2-1: Operational Performance of Current EO/IR sensors. 25

Table 4.2.3-1. Proposed UAV SIGINT Demonstration Program. 28

Table 4.2.4-1. Potential UAV MASINT Sensing Applications. 30

Table 4.2.4-2: Bacteriological Agent Detection Schemes. 31

Table 4.4.4-1: Future Processor Technologies. 38

Table 4.5-1: Comparison of Service Laboratory Initiatives with CINC Requirements. 39

Table 6.1-1: Operational Metrics. 51

Table 6.3.1-1: Manned vs. Unmanned Aircraft Development Costs. 55

Table 6.3.2-1: Manned vs. Unmanned Procurement Costs. 55

Table 6.4.2-1: Status of FAA and NATO UAV Flight Regulations. 59

Table 6.4.4-1: UAV Responsible Offices of Services. 60

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Purpose

The purpose of this roadmap is to stimulate the planning process for US military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development over the period from 2000 to 2025. It is intended to assist Department of Defense (DoD) decision makers in developing a long-range strategy for UAV development and acquisition in the forthcoming Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and beyond. It addresses the following key questions:

What requirements for military capabilities could potentially be filled by UAVs?

What platform, sensor, communication, and information processing technologies are necessary to provide these capabilities?

When will these technologies become available to enable the above capabilities?

This roadmap is meant to complement ongoing Service efforts to redefine their roles and missions for handling 21^st century contingencies. The Services see UAVs as becoming integral components of the future Army’s Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs), the Navy’s DD-21 destroyers, and the Air Force’s Aerospace Expeditionary Forces (AEFs). As an example, the Army’s current “Transformation” initiative envisions each BCT having a reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA) squadron equipped with a UAV system, reflecting the initiative’s emphasis on reducing weight, increasing agility, and integrating robotics.

1.2 Approach

The approach used in this document is to:

Identify requirements relevant to defining UAV system capabilities from the most comprehensive, authoritative sources of warfighter needs. Link these requirements to capabilities needed in future UAV platforms, sensors, communications, and information processing.

Develop a series of forecasting trends (“Moore’s Laws”^²) for the next 25 years for those technologies driving UAV platform, sensor, communication, and information processing performance. Define the timeframe during which the technology to address these requirements will become available for fielding.

Synthesize an integrated plan (“Roadmap”) for UAV development opportunities by combining the above requirements and technology trends.

Such a roadmap could potentially be used in a number of ways, to include:

Evaluating the technologies planned for incorporation in current UAV programs for underachieving or overreaching in capabilities

Defining windows of feasibility for introducing new capabilities in the near term on existing systems or for starting new programs.

Identifying key enabling technology development efforts to support now for use in the far term for inclusion in the Defense Technology Objectives, the Joint Warfighting Science and Technology Plan, and the Defense Technology Area Plan.

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