Tpp will pass during the lame duck



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TPP will pass during the lame duck


Corsi 7/4 (Jerome Corsi: Harvard Ph.D., author of No. 1 N.Y. Times best-sellers, “Obama advances stealth plan to pass TPP,” 7/4/16, http://www.wnd.com/2016/07/obama-advances-stealth-plan-to-pass-tpp/, Accessed: 7/12/16, RRR)

NEW YORK The Obama administration is betting on a stealth plan to secure final passage of the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, before Obama leaves office by pushing the bill through Congress in the “lame duck” session between Election Day Nov. 8, and Jan. 6, 2017, the date the new Congress is sworn in, despite growing voter opposition that now has Hillary Clinton joining Donald Trump in opposing the bill.¶ Tactically, the Obama administration has decided to postpone a TPP vote until after the election, concerned that pushing TPP passage now would risk damaging Clinton’s chances, given her enthusiastic support for TPP during her tenure as secretary of state.¶ The push to pass TPP is consistent with a New York Times report published Sunday by Mark Landler in his “White House Letter,” indicating President Obama plans to travel this week to North Carolina, where he joins Hillary Clinton, campaigning with her for the first time this year; and to Europe, where he joins Britain’s lame-duck prime minister David Cameron, who ended his political career opposing Brexit.¶ In both trips, Obama is expected to press the globalist message that “Americans and Europeans must not forsake their open, interconnected societies for the nativism and nationalism preached by Donald J. Trump or Britain’s Brexiteers.”


Obama needs all his PC to get it done


Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, ‘15 (Gary Hufbauer, Will Congress Unravel the Trans-Pacific Partnership?, Oct 16 2015, The Dialogue, http://www.thedialogue.org/resources/will-congress-unravel-the-trans-pacific-partnership/)

Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics: “While Hillary Clinton may have reversed her prior enthusiastic support of the TPP, if elected president, she can rediscover the geopolitical virtues that led her to embrace the TPP project when she served as secretary of state. And Clinton can toss in a couple of ‘side agreements’—reminiscent of NAFTA—to nudge the TPP closer to her concept of a gold standard. But between now and 2017, the TPP must survive a perilous journey through Congress. The timelines specified under Trade Promotion Authority mean that the soonest President Obama could sign the TPP text will be late January 2016. Meanwhile, Obama will need to agree with his Congressional counterpartsSenate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and probable House Speaker Paul Ryan—on the text of the TPP implementing legislation, including any ‘sweeteners’ inserted to attract the votes of wavering congressmen. Then, in the midst of the presidential election campaign, the House and Senate must vote the implementing legislation up or down, without amendments. If he sees no clear shot at reaching ‘yes’, President Obama can elect to not submit implementing legislation to Congress, and instead leave the task of securing ratification to his successor. On balance, it appears that President Obama will use every ounce of his dwindling political capital stock to secure Congressional approval of the TPP in 2016 and, at the same time, secure his own historic legacy. But if the critical vote is postponed until 2017—when ratification seems all but certain, provided that Sanders and Trump remain far from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue—the TPP will still enjoy a fine launch into the annals of path-breaking trade agreements.”


The plan costs PC—Engagement with China causes intra-party factions amongst Democrats and spurs Republican opposition


Gries 14[Peter Hay Gries, the Harold J. & Ruth Newman Chair in U.S.-China Issues and director of the University of Oklahoma's Institute for U.S.-China Issues, The Politics of American Foreign Policy, 2014.]// Reemz

Both the Democratic and Republican Parties are internally divided over China. On the left, some Democrats argue for a pro-China policy of engagement to better integrate China into the global economic, political, and security orders. Other Democrats, concerned about human rights issues, advocate for tougher China policies. For instance, California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, quoted above, has been a frequent critic of Chinese human rights abuses. Yet other Democrats on Capitol Hill, many from heavily blue collar districts, join Big Labor in condemning unfair Chinese trade practices and advocating tougher U.S. trade policies towards China. On the right, Republicans in Washington are equally divided on China policy. Business conservatives have historically promoted a friendlier China policy conducive to increased trade, investment, and profits. For instance, the U.S.-China Business Council and AmCham China, which lobby on behalf of U.S. companies doing business with China, have worked closely with many Republicans on the Hill to support pro-China and block anti-China legislation. Military hawks and Christian conservatives, however, usually argue for tougher China policies. Congressman Randy Forbes of Virginia, quoted in the epigraph, serves on the House Armed Services Committee and cochairs the House’s China Caucus, and frequently promotes tougher positions on China. New Jersey congressman Christopher Smith, who has held dozens of hearings on Capitol Hill to deplore China’s lack of religious freedoms, has also advocated a tougher U.S. China policy, but for very different reasons.

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