Tropical Cyclone Report

Figure 6. Comparison of 1200 UTC 17 October TVCN consensus guidance (brown), official forecast (blue) and best track (white). Note close agreement between TVCN and official forecast tracks, especially through 24 hours. TVCN and official track errors then appear to cancel each other out from 36 through 72 hours.

Figure 7. Comparison of 0000 UTC 18 October TVCN consensus guidance (brown), official forecast (blue) and best track (white). Note that TVCN track guidance flips to the left, with the official forecast now showing less track error at all tau. This trend persists until 1800 UTC 19 October.