U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States
Download 6.42 Mb.
|
| 33, L08705, doi:10.1029/2006GL025766.
Enfield, D.B., and E.J. Alfaro, 1999: The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. J. Climate, 12, 2093-2103. Enfield, D.B., and A.M. Mestas-Nunez, 1999: Multiscale variabilities in global sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropospheric climate patterns, J. Climate, 12, 2719-2733. Enfield, D.B., A.M. Mestas-Nunez, and P.J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 277-280. Fontaine, B., and S. Janicot, 1996: Sea surface temperature fields associated with West African rainfall anomaly types. J. of Climate, 9, 2935–2940. Ghil, M., and R. Vautard, 1991: Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series. Nature, 350, 324-327. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027-1030. Gray S.T., J.L. Betancourt, C.L. Fastie, and S.T. Jackson, 2003: Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1316, doi:10.1029/2002GL016154. Hidalgo, H.G., 2004: Climate precursors of multidecadal drought variability in the western United States. Water Resour. Res., 40, W12504, doi:10.1029/2004WR003350. Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299, 691-694. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Jones, P.D., and A. Moberg, 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate, 16, 206-223. Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567-18589. Kawamura, R., 1994: A rotated EOF analysis of global sea surface temperature variability with interannual and interdecadal scales. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 707-715. Lees, J. M, and J. Park, 1995: Multi-taper spectral analysis: A stand-alone C-subroutine. Comput. Geosci., 21, 199-236. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1994: Global scales modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 25819-25833. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1996: Joint spatiotemporal modes of surface temperature and sea level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the last century, J. Climate, 9, 2137-2162, 1996. Mantua N.J, and S.R. Hare, 2002: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J. Oceanogr., 58, 35-44. McCabe, G.J., M.A. Palecki, and J.L. Betancourt, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101, 4136-4141. McCabe, G.J., and M.A. Palecki, 2006: Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 849-865. Mestas-Nuñez, A., and D. Enfield, 1999: Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability. J. Climate, 12, 2734-2746. Nicholson, S.E., D. Leposo, and J. Grist, 2001. The relationship between El Niño and drought over Botswana. J. Climate, 14, 323-335. Palmer, W.C., 1965: Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45. U.S. Weather Bureau. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Library and Information Services Division, Washington, D.C. Park, J., C.R. Lindberg, and F.L. Vernon III, 1987: Multitaper spectral analysis for high frequency seismograms, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 12675-12684. Rajagopalan, B., M. E. Mann, and U. Lall, 1998: A multivariate frequency-domain approach to long-lead climatic forecasting, Weather Forecast, 13, 58-74. Rodwell, M.J., D.P. Rowell, and C.K. Folland, 1999: Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature, 398, 320-323. Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1606-1626. Schubert, S.D., M.J. Suarez, P.J. Pegion, R.D. Koster, and J.T. Bacmeister, 2004: On the cause of the 1930s dust bowl. Science, 303, 1855-1859. Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. J. Climate, 18, 4068-4091. Shabbar, A., and W. Skinner, 2004: Summer drought patterns in Canada and the relationship to global sea surface temperatures. J. Climate, 17, 2866-2880. Sutton, R.T., and D.L.R. Hodson, 2003: Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999. J. Climate, 16, 3296-3313. Sutton, R.T., and D.L.R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of multidecadal variations in North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115-118. Sutton, R.T., and D.L.R. Hodson, 2007: Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 20, 891-907. Thomson, D. J., 1982: Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis, Proc. IEEE, 70, 1055-1096. Tourre, Y., B. Rajagopalan, and Y. Kushnir, 1999: Dominant patterns of climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean region during the last 136 years, J. Climate, 12, 2285-2299. Trenberth, K.E., 1997: The definition of El Nino. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2771-2777.
Figure Captions Figure 1. Grids (in gray) with complete (a) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data and (b) sea-surface temperature (SST) data for the period 1925-2003. Figure 2. Localized Fractional Variance (LFV) spectrum from MTM-SVD analysis of (a) global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) (b) Northern Hemisphere (20oN and above) SSTs. The horizontal lines are the various confidence levels. Figure 3. Spatial reconstruction of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) at (a) secular trend and (b) the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency (0.1956 cycles/year). The length of the arrows represents the relative amplitude of the signal and the angle from the horizontal represents the phase lag. For easier interpretation the arrows are colored according to angle from the horizontal (black for 1 to 90 degrees, red for 91 to 180 degrees, blue for 181 to 270 degrees, and green for 271 to 360 degrees). Figure 4. Same as Figure 3 but for the multidecadal signal (a) 0.0149 cycles/year and (b) 0.0334 cycles/year. Figure 5. Temporal reconstruction of (a) frequencies significant in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) band (summed for 0.1956, 0.2280, 0.2654, 0.2783, and 0.2942 cycles/year) at 2.5oS and 132.5oW (a grid point in the tropical Pacific) and a time series of the NINO3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) index, (b) frequencies in the decadal band (0.0334, 0.0549 and 0.0898 cycles/year) at 17.5oN and 127.5oW (a grid point in the North Pacific) compared with a time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and (c) the multidecadal frequency, 0.0149 cycles/year, compared with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Figure 6. Same as Figure 2 but from a joint MTM-SVD analysis of global sea-surface temperatures and global Palmer Drought Severity Index values. Figure 7. Spatial reconstruction of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) at (a) secular trend and (b) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency (0.228 cycles/year). The length of the arrows represents the amplitude of the signal and the angle from the horizontal represents the phase lag. For easier interpretation the arrows are colored according to angle from the horizontal (black for 1 to 90 degrees, red for 91 to 180 degrees, blue for 181 to 270 degrees, and green for 271 to 360 degrees). Figure 8. Temporal reconstructions of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) at a suite of significant frequencies (which are the secular trend (0 cycles/year); El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) band (0.1956, 0.2122, 0.2280, 0.2654, 0.2783, 0.2942 cycles/year), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (0.0149 cycles/year) at locations in the (a) northwestern United States (US) at 43.75N and 123.75W, (b) southwestern US at 36.25N and 113.75W and (c) east coast of the US at 38.75N and 76.25W. The reconstructions are performed separately at each frequency and are summed to result in a single combined temporal reconstruction. The actual PDSI time series is also shown. Figure 9. Same as Figure 8 but for (a) northeastern Brazil, at 8.75S and 36.25W (b) the Sahel, at 11.25N and 16.25W and (c) Eurasia, at68.75Nand 21.25E. Figure 10. Same as Figure 8 but for (a) western Australia, at 21.25S and 113.75E (b) eastern Australia, at 28.75S and 153.75E and (c) South Africa, at 31.25S and 28.75E. Figure 11. Same as Figure 8 but for (a) western India, at 16.25N and 73.75E (b) central India, at 21.25N and 78.75E and (c) eastern India, at 21.25N and 86.25E. 
Directory: ~balajir ~balajir -> Atlantic basin tropical cyclones: risk assessment using climate indicators Download 6.42 Mb. Share with your friends:
|