Only US alliances can solve- organizations like ASEAN and EAS trade off with superior channels of influence
KINU-ASPI 14 [Korean Institute for National Unification – Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “Proceeding and Outcomes Statement”, 8-26-2014, https://www.aspi.org.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/29177/2nd-KINU-ASPI-outcomes.pdf]-DD
Dr. Sung Chul Jung from the Korean delegation opened the dialogue by stating that the power transition between the US and China is one of the key issues shaping the future of Asia-Pacific regional order.He pointed out that security alliances with the US and territorial disputes with China are key factors influencing the foreign policies of Asia-Pacific states. Dr. Jung categorised Asia-Pacific states into four groups: core American allies, American friends, non-aligned countries and Chinese partners. Each group of states takes a different approach towards the power transition between the US and China. On the future of the Asia-Pacific region, Dr. Jung added that the US still maintains its superior military position over China. This balance of power remains even when allies and partners are considered. Dr. Benjamin Schreer from the Australian delegation analysed four models of the future security order in the Asia-Pacific: 1) continued US hegemony despite a relative decline; 2) a US-China strategic condominium; 3) power-balancing between multiple actors in a ‘concert of powers’; and 4) power-dilution through increased multilateralism. Dr. Schreer suggested that as middle powers, South Korea and Australia needed to readjust their strategies for the emerging strategic dynamics which includes building up their capabilities, expanding defence ties with the US and/or other powers bilaterally or trilaterally, bilateral engagement with China, and multilateral regional security 7 26 August 2014 Mr. Brigadier Peter Clay, Mr. John Langtry and Dr. Benjamin Schreer (Left to Right) engagement. As US allies, South Korea and Australia needed to assume greater responsibility for their own security and wider maritime security. In turn, this could provide opportunities to enhance South Korea-Australia security and defence cooperation. In the proceeding discussion, the effectiveness of multilateralism and China’s economic influence were key issues. Many participants viewed regional multilateral organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) as not showing noticeable progress in resolving crises or tensions, especially territorial disputes in South China and East China Sea. Rather, it was noted that bilateral or trilateral ties are more efficient mechanisms and draw countries with similar objectives closer. However, some argued that while multilateral organisations have limitations, their influence will expand in the long term due to stronger bilateral and trilateral relations.