Weather Research Center


Table 4: Number of Hurricane Days



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Table 4: Number of Hurricane Days





Year

OBS

WRC FCST

WRC Error

Plus/Minus

Days

Gray Apr/Jun FCST

Gray Error

Plus/Minus

Days

Climate

Error

25

1984

18

16

-2

30

12

7

1985

21

21

0

35

14

4

1986

11

24

13

15

4

14

1987

5

7

2

20

15

20

1988

21

25

4

30

9

4

1989

32

30

-2

15

-17

-7

1990

27

20

-7

30

3

-2

1991

8

20

12

15

7

17

1992

16

15

-1

15

-1

9

1993

10

21

11

25

15

15

1994

7

16

9

15

8

18

1995

62

21

-41

25

-37

-37

1996

45

24

-21

25

-20

-20

1997

10

7

-3

25

15

15

1998

49

25

-24

20

-29

-24

1999

43

30

-13

40

-3

-18

2000

32

20

-12

25

-7

-7

2001

27

20

-7

25

-2

-2

2002

11

15

4

30

19

14

2003

32

21

-11

35

3

-7

2004

46

16

-30

35

-11

-21

2005

50

21

-29

35

-15

-25

2006

20

24

4

45

25

5

2007

12

19

7

40

28

13


Table 5: Number of Storm Days in the Atlantic





Year

OBS

WRC FCST

WRC Error

Plus/Minus

Days

Gray Apr/Jun FCST

Gray Error Plus/Minus

Days

Climate

Error

49

1984

51

55

4

45

-6

-2

1985

51

68

17

55

4

-2

1986

23

83

60

35

12

26

1987

37

47

10

40

3

12

1988

47

57

10

50

3

2

1989

66

69

3

30

-36

-17

1990

66

58

-8

55

-11

-17

1991

22

64

42

35

13

27

1992

39

41

2

35

-4

10

1993

30

50

20

55

25

19

1994

28

55

27

35

7

21

1995

121

68

-53

50

-71

-72

1996

78

83

5

55

-23

-29

1997

28

47

19

55

27

21

1998

80

57

-23

50

-30

-31

1999

77

69

-8

65

-12

-28

2000

66

58

-8

55

-11

-17

2001

63

64

1

50

-13

-14

2002

54

41

-13

65

11

-5

2003

75

50

-25

65

-10

-26

2004

90

55

-35

60

-30

-41

2005

129

68

-61

65

-64

-80

2006

50

83

33

85

35

-1

2007

34(26)

22

-12(-4)

85

51(59)

15(23)

2008 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY

Mexico 40% 40%

Texas 40% 51%

Louisiana to Alabama 60% 59%

West Florida 70% 71%

East Florida 40% 41%

Georgia to N. Carolina 90% 56%

East Coast of US 60% 36%

Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88%

Other 2008 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:

OCSI Forecasts

Number of Named Storms: 11

Number of Storm Days: 83

Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 5

Number of Hurricane Days: 24

US Landfalls: 4

Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%
The OCSI was developed by Houston meteorologists Dr. John C. Freeman and Jill F. Hasling. This index has been used since 1984 to make annual hurricane season forecasts of which section of the North American coast has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.
The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.
During the 24-year period from 1984 to 2007, there have only been three years (1987, 1992, and 1999) when a storm or hurricane did not make landfall in the section of the United States coastline that had the highest risk. In all three of these years, cyclones made landfall in the section of the coast with the second highest risk. This gives the OCSI an 87.5% accuracy rate.
In addition to its ongoing research, WRC also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator®. This service helps provide detailed storm updates and related information. WRC’s current and past predictions can be found at www.wxresearch.com/outlook.
Founded in 1987, the non-profit Weather Research Center manages a worldwide forecasting operation and provides groundbreaking research to scientists around the world. Meteorologists provide tropical cyclone advisories world wide, severe weather advisories, marine forecasts, long-range outlooks, environmental studies and forensic meteorology services. Weather Research Center provides research into tropical cyclones as well as real-time weather forecasts. WRC can also provide you with an assessment of your severe weather and tropical weather plans.
President Jill F. Hasling is a Fellow and Certified Consulting Meteorologist from the American Meteorological Society as well as a member of the National Council of Industrial Meteorologists.
For more information about The John C. Freeman Weather Museum at Weather Research Center, please call (713) 529-3076 or logon to www.wxresearch.org.
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