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Yes Obama 2012 – AT: Economy
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- Yes Obama 2012 – AT: Economy
Yes Obama 2012 – AT: EconomyEconomy and public perception of Obama is turning around – massive improvementCharles E. Cook, Jr., Spring 2012, “Have President Obama’s Re-Election Prospects Brightened?”, The Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/12spring/docs/12spring_cook.pdf Not all of these factors have changed but there are growing signs that some have changed or might be changing. They offer, at least, enough evidence to warrant watching very closely. The economy grew at a three percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2011. This rate was hardly a blistering pace but was far better than the GDP growth rate has been. The unemployment rate dropped five months in a row, and held steady in a sixth. While it is still unacceptably high, it’s showing a direction that we haven’t seen in a while. Over that same period, the mix of positive to negative economic news, from headline numbers to more arcane indicators like railroad car loadings, has created a positive buzz among the public.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment reported in February that consumer confidence had reached 75.3, the highest since February of 2011 and substantially above the 55.7 last August. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is similarly up to its highest levels since last February. Its overall rate is the highest since April. The public’s assessment of its present situation is the highest in more than a year, and its expectations for the future are also the highest since last May. The Gallup Organization reported that economic confidence in February marked the sixth straight month that public confidence has increased and almost matches the highest monthly levels seen in the last four years, though still in negative territory. With these better economic numbers and more hopeful consumer confidence ratings, the January NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 33 percent believed the country was heading in the right direction. This percentage was the highest since last May. The wrong track number was down to 58 percent, the lowest since May. These are still troubling numbers but reflect a public that badly wants hopeful news. President Obama’s approval rating in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had been upside down: 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved in both the August and October polls. These numbers have improved a bit to 50 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. The Gallup Poll’s monthly approval averages had been 43 percent or less since August; Gallup’s monthly averages for January, February and the first week of March were 45 percent. These are unimpressive numbers and not indicative of an incumbent who is likely to win.The pattern, though, is different and more favorable to the president than what we saw during the last half of 2011. It is worth keeping track of. It is important to note that not all indicators are improving. One economic yardstick that is worth watching is Real Personal Disposable Income (RPDI)that is, how much money are people making after taxes and inflation. Whether looking at RPDI on a per capita basis or overall change from a year earlier, it’s leveled off. It has improved ever so slightly, but Americans have lost a lot of ground over the last year. Things haven’t turned around on that important measurement. Historically, this is the best economic predictor of an incumbent president’s performance. If that number improves in a meaningful way, it would be an important marker that Obama has turned a corner. However, many top economists are not convinced that this is a real economic turnaround. If it is real, they wonder how durable it is, given the likelihood of Europe sliding into a recession. There are also prospects of an even greater financial crisis across the Atlantic and slowing economic growth around the world. The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy makes economic developments elsewhere more relevant than ever before. International headwinds are potentially strong enough to offset such a fragile economic turnaround. At the same time, we’ve seen nominal upward movement in the economic data. Yes Obama 2012 – AT: EconomyEconomy’s turning around – hurts GOP message, helps Obama winAlex Leary, 3-19-2012, “Improving economy complicates Republican message but picture still tough for President Barack Obama”, Tampa Bay Times, http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/article1220387.ece Mitt Romney stood in an industrial manufacturing plant attacking President Barack Obama. "He's a nice guy, but he's in over his head," Romney said. "We need to have a president who understands the economy if we're going to fix the economy." The campaign arranged for plant employees to sit behind Romney, stagecraft that would play well on TV a day before Ohio's crucial Republican presidential primary this month. But the workers provided a different script. "Times were tough around here," 35-year-old Chris Marrone said in an interview. "Everybody was nervous, but we're starting to see orders coming in." A slow but measurable economic comeback — from lower unemployment to a soaring stock market, higher auto sales and daily improvement in battered areas like Youngstown — is complicating the Republican game plan. Unemployment, still dangerously high at 8.3 percent, and the economy remain voters' top concerns and Obama's chief re-election obstacle, but the issue is less of a wedge. "It's a jump ball," said Republican economist Doug Holtz-Eakin. As the GOP candidates campaign across key swing states, their gloom clashes with upbeat assessments from Republican governors, such as Ohio's John Kasich and Florida's Rick Scott, who tout job growth and falling unemployment. The mixed signals have forced candidates to tweak their message. "You know, the economy may be getting better and Republicans may lose their edge on that issue," Rick Santorum, Romney's top rival, told Missouri voters recently. Santorum, among others, is shifting his focus to similarities between the health care plan Romney ushered in as governor of Massachusetts and the national program adopted under Obama. "Obamacare should be the No. 1 issue in the campaign. I think it's the gift that keeps giving," Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told the Weekly Standard. Romney, who has been dragged into emotional arguments over birth control and immigration as he strains to win over conservatives, has tried to refocus his message. "We are going to campaign on the economy. After any recession, the country rebounds," spokesman Ryan Williams said, asserting Obama's policies have prolonged the hardship. He said Santorum's position is evidence he's an "economic lightweight" and disagreed that Romney's message clashed with the governors. "We obviously think more could have been done on the federal level to promote our economic recovery." Even so, three consecutive months of strong job growth, including 227,000 added in February, have taken some bite out of Romney's message. He's adjusted by emphasizing the millions still looking for work, including veterans, and higher gas prices, which Newt Gingrich has made the exclusive focus of his fading campaign. Gasoline has reached $4 a gallon in parts of the country and the pain is expected to persist. Obama has launched an aggressive effort to ascribe the spike to factors out of his hands, such as turmoil in the Middle East, a hard sell even if experts agree. "Right now a lot of Americans are expecting the economy to get better and that helps the president," said Sen. John McCain, who lost to Obama in 2008. "But when they go to the gas pump and see where it is, that makes it more difficult." Despite higher fuel costs, retail spending increased in February by 1.1 percent, the biggest gain since September. But Obama's chastened reaction shows the degree of worry that gas prices could have on his re-election. Polls have been volatile — a New York Times/CBS News poll last week showed his approval rating at 41 percent while a National Journal survey put it at 51 percent. But the National Journal poll showed that 60 percent of Americans anticipate improvement over the coming year, up from 50 percent in October. The president faces a delicate task of not seeming too confident yet trying to take credit for the improvements. He tried to walk the line during a March 9 speech at a manufacturing facility in Petersburg, Va., acknowledging that Americans are still hurting while expressing confidence the rebound will continue. "Our job now is to keep this economic engine churning," Obama said. "We can't go back to the same policies that got us into this mess. We can't go back to an economy that was weakened by outsourcing and bad debt and phony financial profits." Obama made a similar argument in the 2010 midterm elections, but it fell flat against tea-party-fueled anger about rising spending and debt. Republicans swept those elections and took control of the House, crippling the Democratic agenda. This time, though, Obama has distinct signs of recovery. His campaign on Thursday released a documentary-style, 17-minute film tracing the steps to shore up the economy. "Obviously if the economy improves it puts people in a better mood and they are more likely to vote for the incumbent," said John Feehery, a Republican strategist in Washington. Directory: file -> fetch fetch -> 11 th Lit Semester 1 Final Study Guide!!! fetch -> Industrial Revolution Inventors fetch -> Analysis for Galveston Hurricane of 1900 fetch -> The Illuminators (Team 2) 1900 Galveston Hurricane Cycle a team Assignment fetch -> Team csi-utb ruth Reyes Jose Ferrer fetch -> Galveston Hurricane of 1900 Cycle a-teacher as a Problem Solver fetch -> Is Climate Change Starting a New Dust Bowl? Cycle A fetch -> What makes a storm a hurricane fetch -> The 1950s were the "Happy Days" because it was a time of economic prosperity, technology development, new entertainment, new fashion and family growth. The 1950s was a great time fetch -> Sputnik and The Dawn of the Space Age Download 1.5 Mb. Share with your friends:
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