World meteorological organization technical document

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3.2 Australia

3.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System: TC-LAPS
The following statistics are for the 2001 North West Pacific season.

When multiple storms were present, the principal storm at the base time of the forecast was verified (until recently only one forecast to 48 hours was made per base time).

Total number of TCs verified = 16

Chebi Durian Utor Trami Kong-Re Toraji Man-Yi Pabuk Danas Nari Vipa Francis Lekima Krosa Haiyan Podul

(i) Track errors

Forecast Interval	No. Cases	Error (km)
T+0	117	20.8
T+24	110	138.7
T+48	89	236.9

Distribution of errors in 100 km bins for the 48-hour forecasts

0-100	100-200	200-300	300-400	400-500	500-600	600-700	>700
14	25	27	10	8	4	1	0

(ii) Central pressure errors (hPa)

Forecast	No.	RMS	Error	Mean	Error	Abs	Error
Interval	Cases	TCL	PRS	TCL	PRS	TCL	PRS
T+0	117	6.5	0.0	-5.0	0.0	5.4	0.0
T+24	110	11.0	13.7	-5.6	-3.6	8.7	11.0
T+48	89	16.6	21.8	-10.0	-8.2	13.2	18.0

(TCL = TC-LAPS; PRS = Persistence)

3.3 China

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.

3.4 France

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.

3.5 Hong Kong, China

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.

India

Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model

TRACK PREDICTION ERRORS

YEAR	PERIOD	24 HRS		36 HRS
YEAR	PERIOD	MEAN POSITION ERROR (KM)	ANGULAR DEVIATION BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED TRACK VECTORS (RMSE) (DEG.)	MEAN POSITION ERROR (KM)	ANGULAR DEVIATION BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED TRACK VECTORS (RMSE) (DEG.)
1998	20-22 NOV. 6-10 JUN	146.2 140.1	17.4 32.4	242.6 205.2	12.7 27.9
1999	16-20 MAY 15-18 OCT 26-30 OCT	97.4 151.4 107.7	12.1 13.7 19.2	133.0 426.5 185.7	12.2 20.7 23.0
2000	15-19 OCT 27-30 NOV	105.0 114.8	25.8 05.7	237.1 161.5	23.8 15.5
2001	21-28 MAY 24-27 SEP 14-17 OCT	90.0 110.0 120.0	15.2 10.1 12.3	160.0 180.0 210.0	20.1 15.1 22.0

MEAN 118.3 16.4 214.1 19.3
Observed track vector : Initial (at T0) to observed (at T0+24H or T0+36H) positions

Directory: pages -> prog -> www -> tcp -> documents -> doc
doc -> Review of the ra IV hurricane operational plan
doc -> Global tropical cyclone season
doc -> English only recent and current activities of the rsmc new delhi
doc -> World meteorological organization
doc -> Coordination in operational aspects of the hurricane warning system and related matters coordination with and within the cmo member states
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> English only

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