1 Cherry Wine c lanerie d romans 20-1 ml

At the time of writing this (May 19 9:20 PM CDT) the forecast for Baltimore has a 100% chance of rain. I am writing these picks assuming the track will not be fast.

Quick Summary - The race is between Nyquist and Exaggerator. The slop will help Exaggerator, but Nyquist has always been better than him. The minor placings are a crap shoot. My 3rd pick is Stradivari. After that, it is wide open.

 1 - Cherry Wine - C Lanerie - D Romans - 20-1 ML

The son of Paddy O'Prado is a closer and should get a ground saving trip thanks to the post position. Last out he was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland in a race with a hot pace that collapsed on a track that favored closers on the day. TimeformUS predicts a fast pace that should aid closers. Cherry Wine broke his maiden over a sloppy track at Churchill in impressive form. His sire also ran well on the slop in the Kentucky Derby in 2010. 

+ Good slop record and breeding for it, there should be a fast pace that will play into his running style

- Slower than the top contenders and the Blue Grass has yielded weak results for the horses that have run back since the race

 2 - Uncle Lino - F Perez - G Sherlock - 30-1 ML

Last out he won the California Chrome Stakes at Los Alamitos. He did it in front running fashion in a race where he controlled a slow pace. Before that he was 3^rd to Exaggerator and Mor Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby where he was close to a suicidal pace and stayed on show money. I think Uncle Lino will turn out to be a decent horsem but I think this race will be too much for him. I would consider using him in the bottom spots of trifecta and superfecta bets.

+ Good slop record (2-0-1-1), Santa Anita Derby was impressive

- Is a front running type that might sit too close to a pace that might be too hot for him to handle

3 – Nyquist – M Gutierrez – D O’Neill – 3/5 ML

There isn’t a ton to say about him expect that he is really good, is undefeated over 8 lifetime starts racing at 5 different tracks, has earned $4,954,200, and won the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby where he faced tremendous adversity. Before the Derby, I said Nyquist had the best prior race of any horse in the field in the BC Juvenile. He drew post 13 (just like the Derby) and was hung wide on both turns and still won impressively while covering much more ground than he needed. In the Derby he was near a fast pace and stayed on to win the race impressively. He has never raced on a muddy or sloppy track and has never really caught a lot of dirt in his prior races. If he sits off the pace a little more and catches some dirt and does not like it, he might get beat. It is easy to see him scoring in the Preakness.

+ Best horse in the field

- No slop experience, the Derby might have taken a lot out of him

4 – Awesome Speed – J Toledo – A Goldberg – 30/1 ML

The son of Awesome Again is the local horse taking a shot against the big boys. He is much slower than the field according to TimeformUS and Beyer. He would really need to step up to win or compete for a placing. He will be close to the lead in a race filled with better speed horses.

+ 1 win on a good track, locally based

- Much slower than the other horses, will be close to the pace

5 – Exaggerator – K Desormeaux – K Desormeaux – 3-1 ML

The king of off tracks for this crop has been beaten by Nyquist 4 times. He is still the next best horse in this race after Nyquist. He loves sloppy tracks and will be in a race full of pace that should aid his off the pace running style. If he moves forward after an impressive Derby, I could see him beating Nyquist. It will be interesting to see what he does this race.

+ Loves sloppy tracks, impressive record, will get a solid pace to run at with less traffic compared to the Derby

- Still not as good as Nyquist, a big Derby effort might have taken a lot out of him

6 – Lani – Y Take – M Matsunaga – 30-1 ML

The Japanese import ran better than I anticipated in the Derby. He broke last and raced wide and still finished respectably. He is an off the pace type that has won at this distance before (UAE Derby). He also has ran okay on off tracks (3-1-1-0). I think he is a good horse, but not on same level as Nyquist or Exaggerator. It will be interesting to watch this horse who has been said to have a mind like no other run in around Baltimore’s biggest party each year.

+ Won at distance, slop record, closing style

- Not as good and slower at Nyquist and Exaggerator, his mindset could be argued to be a minus

7 – Collected – J Castellano – B Baffert – 10-1 ML

Bob Baffert’s entry this year has been victorious in his last 2 races in some smaller stakes events. The son of City Zip has done most of his running near or on the lead. The last time he faced horses that ran in the Derby was in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. He finished a respectable 4^th in a race with a hot pace where the winner and 2^nd place horse came from far back. I think he has a solid record, but is taking a HUGE step up in class. He will really have to improve off of his last 2 races to win here.

+ Good race record, great jockey and trainer

- Slower than the top 2, has a good race record, but who has he beat???

8 – Laoban – F Geroux – E Guillot – 30/1 ML

This maiden trained by the outspoken Eric Guillot will really have to move forward to win and compete in this race. It would be quite the story to break his maiden beating the best horse of his crop and do it in a race like the Preakness. Last out, he was respectable 4^th in the Bluegrass at Keeneland after setting a hot pace on a track that favored closers. They take the blinkers off this horse likely in hope to let him relax more while running. He has never run on the slop, but will definitely be in the lead or not far from it. He will really have to get on the lead and keep running in order to win this race. I can see him holding on for a spot in the trifecta or superfecta.

+ Speed that stayed on with a hot pace last out, blinkers off, good jockey

- Maiden, will likely run much faster than he would want to, really needs to step up

9 – Abiding Star – J Acosta – E Allard – 30/1 ML

This Parx import barely made the race due to the equine herpes outbreak there. Last out he beat a small field in the Parx Derby in front running fashion. He is local to the Mid-Atlantic region and has won his last 5 races. With all of that, he is facing much better horses than he has ever faced.  He is going from single A to the MLB.

+ Local, winning streak, off track record (3-2-0-0)

- Not nearly as good as most of the field, slow, frontrunner

10 – Fellowship – J Lezcano – M Casse

Last out, he was 4^th in the Pat Day Mile on Derby day running a respectable race in a decent field. He was 3^rd to Nyquist by 4.25 lengths in the Florida Derby. He will be doing his running late after sitting a mid to back in the pack. The Casse barn does not have the best dirt stake record, and I don’t see Fellowship improving that record.

+ Decent race record, good running style, more ground might be good

- A step below the top horses, needs to really improve to win

11 – Stradivari – J Velazquez – T Pletcher

The lightly raced son of Megdalia D’Oro won impressively last out in an allowance race at Keeneland. He did not beat much in this race as no horses from that race have come back to win. He is near the top of the field from a speed figure point of view and might be able to move forward as he has had good time off and is the youngest horse in this race that likely grown since his last race. The post draw did not help, but his hall of fame jockey will do his best to ensure a decent trip.

+ Lightly raced, time off from last race, youngest horse and more time for them can help, good speed figures

- Has not raced horses of this caliber, has not raced on an off track, bad post position

Suggested Preakness Bets ($50 Budget)

$6 Exacta 3 with 5,11 ($12)

$9 Exacta Box 3,5 ($18)

$1 Exacta 5 with 3,11 ($2)

$1 Exacta 5,11 ($2)

$0.50 Trifecta 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,11 ($7)

$0.50 Trifecta 3,5 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,11 with 3,5 ($7)

$0.50 Trifecta 11 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($1)

$0.50 Trifecta 3,5 with 3,5 with 11 ($1)

Other Stakes Picks

Race 5 – G3 Maryland Sprint

Top Pick – #7 Salutos Amigos

Next Best - #3 Always Sunshine

Longshot - #6 Negrito

Race 6 – James Murphy (assuming on the turf)

Next Best – #4 Ousby

Longshot – #3 Easy River

Race 8 – The Very One (assuming on the turf)

Next Best – #8 Rumble Doll

Longshot – #10 Joya Real

Race 9 – Chick Lang

Top Pick – #1 Justin Squared – huge workout and last win was impressive

Next Best – #6 Counterforce

Longshot – #7 Big Louie D

Race 10 – G3 Galorette (assuming on the turf)

Top Pick – #3 Tiger Ride

Next Best – #12 Heath

Longshot – #11 Vielsalm

Race 11 – Sir Barton

Next Best – #14 Gettysburg

Longshot – #3 Kingslayer

Race 12 – G2 Dixie (assuming on the turf)

Next Best – #12 Take the Stand