Using equivalence tests to reverse the burden of proof in endangered species science - a 'BASEHIT' for imperiled species' advocates

Conventional null hypothesis testing is inappropriate for use in endangered species management because the "no effect" null hypothesis places the burden of proof upon endangered species and their advocates. The express mission of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) is to ensure that human activities are "not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species." Thus, the ESA dictates that the burden of proof should be reversed and re-assigned to parties whose actions may cause or exacerbate species' imperilment. Equivalence tests, which are often used in pharmaceutical research, provide fully vetted alternatives to null hypothesis tests. In an equivalence testing framework, one assumes that two experimental populations are different (i.e., a significant effect exists) until strong evidence is provided to the contrary. When applied to ESA reviews, this framework will require regulated parties to assume the burden of proof and demonstrate that proposed activities will not harm listed species. To facilitate the use of equivalence testing methods, I present BASEHIT - Best Available Science through Equivalence-based Hypothesis and Inference Testing. BASEHIT is a free software tool that uses an intuitive, graphical user interface to perform equivalence-based alternatives to common statistical methods (e.g., t-test, linear regression). It will allow managers to abandon null hypothesis tests and relieve them of the burden of proof in many ESA review scenarios.

State governments across the U.S. are exploring innovative measures to evaluate policy effectiveness, budget efficiency, and overall societal progress. Such measures include lists of impact indicators, valuation studies that supply full cost accounting, and aggregated valuation figures like the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). While states may look to such benchmarks on a specific policy topic, however, full integration of non-traditional approaches lags far behind in supplanting or even complementing metrics like the Gross Domestic Product and similar estimates of growth when making day-to-day decisions. Maryland’s Government first calculated its GPI in 2010 and now updates data annually. Even with strong high-level support and national recognition, the shift from using the GPI as an interesting lens to a dominant tool for policy and budgetary analyses and decision-making is proving difficult for many reasons: bureaucratic inertia, lack of public understanding and acceptance, the power of sound bites and media coverage, jurisdictional competition, and wariness towards change. The session will describe these barriers from a Government perspective and some of the methods Maryland is pursuing to overcome obstacles. We will encourage interaction with attendees to identify potential steps to spur future transition to adoption and use of alternative measures.

Acidic ephemeral ponds in the southeastern US provide habitat to a number of endemic imperiled species, including four ephemeral pond-breeding amphibians: the frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum), reticulated flatwoods salamander (A.bishopi), gopher frog (Lithobates capito), and striped newt (Notophthalmus perstriatus). Using environmental DNA (eDNA) for inventory and monitoring of these species may facilitate assessing the efficacy of current management strategies; however, DNA may degrade quickly in these acidic conditions, limiting the utility of the eDNA technique. We developed quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) primers and probes (i.e. markers) specific to the gopher frog, striped newt, and both flatwoods salamander species. To test these markers under ideal conditions, we isolated eDNA from water samples collected from captive populations of gopher frogs, striped newts, and reticulated flatwoods salamanders. All markers successfully amplified target species eDNA, with minimum DNA amounts ranging from 1.1*10-4 ng for the reticulated flatwoods salamander to 5.5*10-3 ng for the gopher frog. Furthermore, we demonstrate the efficacy of these markers in natural, acidic ponds with known target species presence and absence. Successful detection of species with these markers should aid surveys of four of the most imperiled southeastern amphibians, and provide baselines for future work, such as assessments of reintroduction efforts.

Implementation of conservation plans conceived outside of the context of climate change is challenging enough. Updating and implementing these plans in the context of climate change adds considerable difficulties from scientific and social standpoints. While high uncertainties regarding patterns of ecological disassembly and reassembly are a significant challenge to the science, equal or greater challenges remain in the realm of implementation. We are making demonstrable progress in both the planning and implementation of conservation in the context of climate change in a landscape of several hundred thousand acres in western Maine. Our work with partners and stakeholders has led to the identification of a potential new high elevation National Wildlife Refuge alongside a portfolio of other conservation projects ongoing or completed. This landscape has long been noted for its large blocks of contiguous forest and viable animal and plant populations from northern hardwood, mixed-wood, boreal spruce-fir, and alpine communities. These diverse attributes exist along a rather pronounced latitudinal ecological gradient and transition zone exaggerated by a mountainous topographic gradient that we contend will assist various short term and long term adaptation mechanisms. The range of ecological attributes has brought diverse factions of people together based on the range of short term and long term conservation values they recognize.

Chytridiomycosis is a disease in amphibians caused by the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis), and is implicated in recent global amphibian declines. It is believed to pose a serious threat to over 30% of all amphibian species. There is an urgent need to identify ways to stop the spread of this fungal pathogen. The source of this pathogen is unknown, but strong evidence suggests a vector via the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), a popular model species for a variety of biological studies. Chytrid research in West-Central Africa may be pivotal to future conservation initiatives. Over 20 amphibian species across 13 genera were sampled in this region (Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea) to examine chytridiomycosis infection. Skin swabs from each individual were tested for chytrid presence and infection load, while additional swabs were used to sample skin bacteria and bacterial metabolites. Sampling occurred across a wide elevational gradient during both the wet and dry seasons. Results from qPCR analysis reveal high prevalence (15+ species) across a wide elevational range. All positive individuals exhibited low, non-lethal infection loads, suggesting possible widespread resistance. Ongoing identification of skin bacteria and anti-fungal metabolites may reveal a possible mechanism for this resistance. The results will contribute to knowledge of chytrid origins and offer insight to recent efforts to develop a chytrid probiotic for threatened amphibian populations.

The global decline of non-marine mollusks is well documented with 1000s of species included on the World Conservation Union Red List of Threatened Species and Endangered Species List. Few marine mollusks are listed despite greater overall diversity and increased exposure to climate change, invasive species, fishing, and habitat degradation. The loss of marine mollusks on the Atlantic coast of the U.S. has been attributed to overharvesting, disease, and habitat degradation. More recently, declines in softshell clam fisheries in Maine have been reported to be linked to the inability of spat to set on acidic sediments making them more vulnerable to predation. In Chesapeake Bay, the softshell clam population is threatened by losses due to increased fishing pressure, disease, high temperature, habitat degradation, and predation. The potential impact of ocean acidification on softshell clams in Chesapeake Bay and other marine species worldwide remains to be determined. Moreover, few long term studies of climate change have been conducted in the oceans compared to terrestrial systems and the potential impacts of multiple anthropogenic stressors acting additively, synergistically or antagonistically remain largely unknown. In this study, observations on the decline of softshell clams in Chesapeake Bay are presented and compared with marine mollusk declines in other regions of the Atlantic coast. The question of a global decline of marine mollusks will also be addressed.

Common loons, Gavia immer, comprise an interesting species with which to study the genetic link between seasonal migration and gene flow (or breeding site 'migration'). Common Loons are long-lived, large piscivorous birds that breed in lakes of northern North America and Iceland. Loons are highly philopatric and territorial in breeding areas and also seem to return to the same wintering area. They are subject to multiple threats during all stages of their life (e.g., mercury poisoning, lake acidification, oil spills, botulism). In this study >600 loon samples collected from throughout the range in North America were used to determine population structure using five polymorphic microsatellite loci. Loons breeding near the east coast were strongly differentiated from loons in the rest of the range. Loons west of New Hampshire and Quebec showed a significant level of differentiation. Loons breeding in Wisconsin and New York were genetically distinct from other populations as well. This pattern of genetic differentiation can be partially explained by seasonal migratory routes; birds wintering on the west coast and in the Gulf of Mexico overlap in breeding areas but this may not be true of eastern birds. Understanding population genetic structure and relationships of both wintering and breeding populations will provide information on the impacts of stressors to loon populations. These results may also inform population genetic studies of other migratory birds.

It has been estimated that the annual production of bushmeat in Ghana may be as much as 400,000 tons per annum. The average annual production of fish and livestock between 1991 and 1998 was 407,000 tons and 57,600 respectively. The bushmeat trade would appear to be a major contributor to protein production in the region, yet to date, and due in part to the largely informal nature of the trade, our ability to produce detailed quantitative analyses of the drivers of supply and demand has been hindered by a lack of long-term data. We aim to address this gap; using a unique 27-year bushmeat market data set collected in the city of Kumasi, and using methods borrowed from the econometrics literature, we present the findings of a simultaneous supply and demand model, that uses complementary data on commodity prices, agricultural incomes, agricultural labour, macroeconomic indices and seasonal rainfall patterns to provide a geographically focused holistic overview of the commercial trade. Our results suggest that the commercial trade is defined more by the livelihood characteristics of the hunters and the expansion of agricultural lands, than the demands of urban consumers. Additionally bushmeat supplies are becoming increasingly inelastic, unable to respond to price signals from the market. These findings have direct implications for management, and question the degree to which curbing urban demand will feed back into a reduction in hunting pressure.

Conservation measures seeking to protect biodiversity without considering human populations intimately associated with the lands have had limited success. Using Guyana, South America, as a case study two conservation strategies are evaluated, one focusing primarily on biodiversity, the other being an integrated framework that acknowledges the human-biodiversity dynamics of indigenous peoples and their association with the land. Areas of conservation interest were determined using Maxent to model and overlay species distributions across Guyana. Using a biodiversity-only approach to conservation and available State lands, the Government of Guyana could convert approx. 16% of its land to protected areas. Engaging Guyana's indigenous peoples in the decision making, administration, and management of protected areas would dramatically increase the percent of Guyana's lands under conservation measures to approx. 32 %. Given the remoteness of the many proposed protected areas and the limited interest in and knowledge of Guyana's biodiversity by people living along the coast, a collaboration between Guyana's indigenous peoples as primary stakeholders in the conservation process at the planning, implementation, and management phases and the Government of Guyana could greatly enhance conservation measures in the country while address underlying human rights issues associated with conservation in Guyana. This assessment is timely as Guyana has recently passed its Protected Areas Act.

Understanding the long-term dynamics of wildlife populations is integral to our understanding of past, present and future biodiversity trends. The implications for conservation of being able to track fine scale trends in population abundance are well recognized. Established in 1999, the Living Planet Index is a synthetic tool to aggregate vertebrate population time series trends to gain a broad view of biodiversity trends. It currently encompasses some 12,500 population time series across 2,800 species of vertebrate. We present a review of the data that are contained in this continuously updated online database and report on a gap analysis of its coverage as a global biodiversity indicator. Using of a number of case studies, we illustrate how population trend information can be usefully aggregated to help understand trends at several spatial scales in the past, present and predicted into the future. We recommend key areas for strengthening data coverage, and address how data from this database might be integrated with other biodiversity resources to enhance our understanding of biodiversity trends.

Latin America contains more bat species than any other region in the world and they face diverse threats, from direct killing to roost vandalism to habitat destruction and misguided vampire bat control. Latin America also has a significant number of bat professionals committed to conservation. RELCOM has become an articulated, effective, continent-wide conservation effort. Through education, research, and conservation actions, RELCOM has integrated 19 countries to save bats from Argentina and Chile to Mexico and across the Caribbean. Working on migration ecology, infectious diseases, endangered species, and more, RELCOM members (all local, effective conservation professionals) share a strategy, priorities, objectives, and success indicators. Training exchanges, courses, effective communication, meetings, and a horizontal structure all contribute to the successful growth and impact of the Network. Most countries have identified the Areas of Importance for the Conservation of Bats, thus linking a continent-wide grid that highlights the importance of bats and promotes the conservation regionally and country by country.

Malawi's high population pressure has accelerated agricultural expansion and increased the demand for forest resources, resulting in forest loss. This study explored farmers' perceptions and attitudes towards cutting trees from the forest and linked these to their behaviour in relation to forest conservation. Using the theory of planned behaviour as a conceptual framework, an attitude scale was developed to explore three attitude components: attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control. Household questionnaires containing the attitude scale were administered to 200 farmers in Malawi. Attitudes towards cutting trees from the forest were mostly negative. Contrary to our hypothesis and the theory, the intention to cut down trees from the forest was predicted by the subjective norm and perceived control over the behaviour, but not by the attitude. Farmers who perceived natural forest cover to be low were less likely to collect firewood from the forest and had a higher density of planted trees on their land. Although most farmers were against cutting trees from the forest and understood the negative impacts associated with it, attitude was a poor predictor of the intention to cut down trees. Instead, perceptions of forest cover were more important motivators for forest conservation behaviour such as firewood collection and tree planting in Malawi. Understanding farmers' motivations for forest conservation is vital for designing effective conservation policies.

Successful eradications of harmful introduced invasive species have been mostly confined to islands while programs in mainland areas remain small and cost-ineffective. A fundamental applied question is thus how to optimize invasive management at large scales while minimizing costs. In 2006, we created a project to achieve large scale eradication of invasive American mink in Scotland based on a partnership of citizens and scientists. The project was initiated by us (ecological scientists), implemented by trained volunteers, and latterly supported by social and computer scientists working on motivation and digital tools for volunteers. At present, the project has attracted > 600 volunteers including conservationists, hunters, farmers and rangers and it has succeeded to remove breeding mink from 10000km2. Concurrently the scale of the task involved and the amount of data gathered allowed us to research issues in population ecology at a scale not normally amenable to investigation. We demonstrated that population productivity rates differ among areas with "hotspots" of productivity and emigrants dispersing up to 50km. However, rates of reinvasion varied among areas potentially due to density-dependent recolonization. These findings have been used to define the appropriate spatial scale of control and allocation of resources and thus, optimise conservation efforts. The success of this project relied on functional volunteer participation guided by the scientific research.

The Amphibian Ark (AArk) is the ex situ, captive breeding, action-arm of the 2007 Amphibian Conservation Action Plan that was assembled by a diverse delegation of stakeholders. It is a global network of participants, and has no central facilities or amphibian populations. Primary activities of the AArk include prioritizing and identifying species for conservation programs, especially focusing on those that would perish in the wild in the absence of immediate placement of founder populations in safekeeping, removed from the threats in the wild. Captive programs are pro-active emergency stopgap components of the integrated conservation plan for these species, and are not considered to be the conservation plan itself. Responsible reintroduction programs and capacity building to establish the ex situ programs in the range country of the amphibian species are ongoing principle priorities of the program. AArk is a joint effort of three principal partners: the World Association of Zoos and Aquariums, the IUCN SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group, and the Amphibian Survival Alliance. Other programs include outreach education and advisement to policymakers and stakeholders globally. Special challenges include biosecurity of ex situ populations, with regards to amphibian diseases, and funding.