Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in montreal, canada using pseudo panel analysis


Figure 2: Evolution of Car Ownership Levels across Years for Artificial Households in Plateau-Mont-Royal Borough



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Figure 2: Evolution of Car Ownership Levels across Years for Artificial Households in Plateau-Mont-Royal Borough



TABLE 1: Summary Statistics of Variables


Variables

OD Years

1998

2003

2008

Car Ownership Levels of Households













0 Car

19.5

19.0

21.1







1 Car

45.2

44.5

42.8







2 Cars

29.7

30.1

28.6







≥ 3 Cars

5.7

6.5

7.5

Household Demographics










No of Males
















0

29.5

34.4

36.1







1

33.6

33.3

33.1







≥ 2

36.9

32.3

30.8

No of Middle Aged Adults
















0

59.5

56.9

51.4







1

22.2

23.1

26.5







≥ 2

18.3

20.0

22.1

Number of Full-time Employed Adults










0

31.6

32.6

36.2







1

38.5

37.9

33.6







≥ 2

29.9

29.5

30.2

Number of Part-time Employed Adults










0

88.4

89.4

89.8







1

10.8

10.0

9.5







≥ 2

0.8

0.6

0.7

Number of License Holders
















0

11.7

11.6

13.4







1

33.4

33.5

32.6







≥ 2

54.9

54.9

54.0

Number of Students
















0

62.9

64.7

68.0







1

18.4

18.2

16.0







≥ 2

18.7

17.1

16.0

Number of Retirees
















0

75.2

72.7

64.3







1

15.4

18.1

23.2







≥ 2

9.4

9.2

12.5

Land Use Measures










Income (CT level)
















Low (Less than 40K)

51.2

40.6

33.9







Medium (40K – 80K)

47.5

54.1

57.5







High (Above 80K)

1.3

5.3

8.6

Sample size

4000

4000

4000

TABLE 2: Estimation Results


Variables

Latent Propensity

Threshold between One and Two Car

Threshold between Two and Three Car

Estimate

t-stat

Estimate

t-stat

Estimate

t-stat

Constant

1.7844

13.575

1.1800

34.007

1.3129

15.789

Yearly Trend




Year 2003

---

---

-0.0430

-3.948

---

---

Year 2008



















Mean

---

---

-0.0870

-4.316

---

---

Standard Deviation

---

---

0.1006

3.433

---

---

Household Demographics




No of Males

0.2137

6.220

---

---

---

---

Presence of Children

---

---

---

---

---

---

less than 4 years

---

---

---

---

0.1495

3.603

5-9 years

0.4170

4.826

---

---

---

---

10-14 years

0.8563

4.976

0.0606

2.090

0.1067

2.747

No of Middle Aged Adults

0.0684

2.297

---

---

---

---

Senior Households * Year 2003

---

---

0.0974

4.170

---

---

Senior Households * Year 2008

---

---

0.1212

4.812

---

---

Full-time Working Adults



















Mean

0.5449

10.247

---

---

0.1198

4.652

Standard Deviation

0.2559

1.721

---

---

---

---

Full-time Working Adults * 2008

-0.1724

-2.635

---

---

---

---

Part-time Working Adults

0.3083

4.285

---

---

---

---

No of Retirees

0.4342

6.724

0.0625

5.431

---

---

No of Students

-0.3558

-7.529

---

---

---

---

No of License Holders

3.6341

29.715

0.2741

14.075

-0.119

-3.098

Presence of Immobile Persons

-0.3128

-6.142

---

---

---

---

Transit Accessibility Measures



















No of Bus Stops

-0.0197

-5.361

---

---

---

---

Length of Bus Lines (km)

-0.0055

-2.751

---

---

---

---

Length of Metro Lines (km)



















Mean

-0.2135

-3.803

---

---

---

---

Standard Deviation

0.7650

9.351

---

---

---

---

Length of Metro Lines (km) * Year2008

-0.1982

-2.543

---

---

---

---

Land Use Measures



















Income (Base: Medium Income)

---

---

---

---

---

---

Low Income (Less than 40K)

-0.3054

-5.087

---

---

---

---

High Income (Above 80K)

0.3364

3.595

---

---

---

---

Commercial

-1.6892

-3.703

---

---

---

---

Government and Institutional

-1.2893

-3.699

---

---

---

---

Open Area

0.483

3.776

---

---

---

---

Park and Recreational

---

---

0.1256

2.622

---

---

Resource and Industrial

-0.5595

-3.099

---

---

---

---

Household Density

-0.1047

-6.149

---

---

---

---

Boroughs



















Ville-Marie

-0.3920

-1.511

---

---

-0.6575

-2.287

Ville-Marie * Year 2003

---

---

0.3353

2.861

---

---

Ville-Marie * Year 2008

0.8904

2.113

---

---

0.9450

2.567

Cote-des-Neiges

-0.4729

-2.604

---

---

---

---

Cote-des-Neiges * Year 2008

0.5071

1.886

---

---

---

---

Plateau-Mont-Royal * Year 2003

---

---

---

---

0.8795

14.922

Plateau-Mont-Royal * Year 2008

-0.7760

-2.428

---

---

-0.9020

-2.325

Outremont * Year 2003

-1.0167

-1.991

---

---

1.3255

21.564

Log-likelihood at sample shares, LL (c)

-14641.96

Log-likelihood at convergence, LL (β)

-8581.56

Number of observations

12000




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