China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents
China space spending trades off with social services—won’t invest more
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- Tradeoff 2AC Disad Instability causes China to lash out with WMD—extinction.
- Econ Uniqueness Chinese economy on the brink now—5 reasons.
- [CONTINUES] Econ Uniqueness CONTINUING
- China decline coming soon and spills over to the global economy
- Fiscal discipline now Space fiscal discipline now—budget for the past 11 years totaled 2.15 billion World Security Institute, 5.
- Chinese fiscal discipline in the space program now Xinhua News Agency, 10/12/06.
- Plan Kills Space Budget Chinese space program on the brink now—can’t sustain a new project
- Chinese space program underfunded—can’t handle another mission
- Social Tradeoff
China space spending trades off with social services—won’t invest more Antoaneta Bezlova, Chinese correspondent for Inter Press Service, the world’s leading provider of global information, 10/14/06. “Beijing: We Have Lift Off” in the Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GJ14Ad01.html China's budget for developing the Shenzhou capsule series has reached roughly 19 billion yuan (US$2.3 billion), or less than 10% of the United States' annual spending on space programs, Pan Houren, a research fellow with the Space Science and Application Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Xinhua News Agency. As much as Chinese leaders hope that a leap of nationalistic pride for completing the space mission would help assuage popular discontent over social injustice and corruption, they feel there is a need to justify the expenditure. Despite an economy that is expected to grow 9.2% this year, China is still home to millions of poor. Official statistics put the number of people living in absolute poverty, or with annual per capita income of less that 668 yuan at 26 million. The launch of China's second space mission comes on the heels of an annual Communist Party meeting, which called for "social fairness" and promised to combat the gap between the urban rich who have benefited most from China's 20-year economic boom and its vast poor majority in the countryside. Over the two decades of economic reforms state funding for health care and education for China's 800 million rural dwellers has dwindled, transforming hospitals and schools into profit-driven enterprises and becoming a major source for complaints and violent unrest in the countryside. Tradeoff 2AC Disad Instability causes China to lash out with WMD—extinction. San Renxing, staff writer for the Epoch Times, 8/05. “The CCP’s Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War,” 8/05, http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html (citing Sun Yat-sen, revolutionary leader that led the establishment of the Republic of China, and Yang Shangkun, previous President of the People's Republic of China and was permanent Vice-chair of the Central Military Commission) These speeches describe in a comprehensive, systematic, and detailed way the CCP’s nearly 20 years of fear and helplessness over its doomed fate, and its desperate fight to extend its life. In particular, the speeches lay uncharacteristically bare what is really on the CCP’s mind and hide nothing from the public—a rare confession from the CCP that can help people understand its evil nature. If one truly understands what is said in this confession, one will immediately catch on to the CCP’s thinking. In short, the speeches are worth reading, and I would like to comment on them. I. A Gangster Gambles with the World as His Stake, and the Lives of People in this Global Village Become Worthless What, then, is the gist of this wild, last-ditch gamble? To put it in a few words: A cornered beast is fighting desperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you don’t believe me, read some passages directly from the speeches. 1) “We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!” 2) “In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’ theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are finished, China will be finished, and the world will be finished.” 3) “It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Party’s life has always been above all else!” Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches. These speeches describe in a comprehensive, systematic, and detailed way the CCP’s nearly 20 years of fear and helplessness ... That is the main theme of the speeches. Econ Uniqueness Chinese economy on the brink now—5 reasons. David Magee, staff writer, 7/6/11. “5 Reasons China’s Bubble Will Burst” in International Business Times, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/175179/20110706/china-economic-bubble-housing-bubble-job-growth-asia-bubble-china-interest-rates-recession-inflation.htm China raised a key interest rate for the third time this year as the country deals with surging inflation. That the benchmark rate for one-year loans will be raised 0.25 percentage points to 6.56 percent is not such a big deal at face value. The country's interest rate is still manageable. It's the reason China has had to bump up rates a third time this year, just halfway through the year, that's alarming when combined with other pressing problems the world's second largest economy faces. Here's five reasons why China's fast-growth economic bubble will burst:Inflation is Gaining Momentum Inflation in China hit a 34-month high of 5.5 percent in May, and economists think it rose even higher in June. Let's not forget, either, that China is a communist country and the government shades realities to the positive side. All economic growth figures and inflation figures should be adjusted in a more negative direction. Thus, China's true inflation rate is probably running at about 7 percent -- a dangerous figure for such a large country with wage-growth imbalance. Global food prices are rising and China needs a lot of food. Housing costs are rising, also. But wages are not growing that fast throughout the country to keep up.China has a Credit Bubble Private sector forecasters say the mix of rapid growth and higher inflation in China means Beijing should further tighten access to credit. We know in America all too well what happens in too much credit is extended when asset values are inflated and wage growth sustainability is not a reality.Pop goes the bubble.Already, China faces massive debt problems in local governments throughout the country. In June, China's communist government announced that local governments in the country have piled up debts of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns of banks' health in the nation if the loans can't be repaid. The money was borrowed by local governments throughout the country during the boom period of the last decade as China's economy has emerged fast to become the world's second largest, bypassing Japan, to pay for construction and other spending. That means much of China's growth has been falsely stimulated, which means it's a bubble.Even the government has concerns."Due to inadequate repayment ability, some local governments can only pay their debts by taking on still more debt," stated a report provided by China's National Audit Office.A Real Estate Bubble Looms As if it's not bad enough already with inflation and debt-ridden local governments, China is in the midst of a massive housing and commercial real estate bubble that is not sustainable. What goes up must come down, after all, no matter what the most hopeful bullish China investors say.Consider only the words of renowned short seller Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager who correctly called the implosion of Enron, Tyco, and sub-prime mortgages while the rest of Wall Street continued to pour money and praises upon both. Chanos appeared on Bloomberg's Charlie Rose program late last year and said China was on an "economic treadmill to hell."Chanos began questioning China's economic foundation as early as 2009, when one global company after another was at the height of pouring billions into the economy through partnerships with the country's communist government. He told Fortune he and his company began looking at commodity prices and the stocks of big mining companies. The result: "Everything we did in our microwork (on commodities) kept leading us back to China's property market."Chanos recalled being at a research conference in 2009 when an analyst enthusiastically cited numbers of China's robust building boom, noting that the country was experiencing building at a pace of "5 billion square meters of new residential and office space," on top of all that had previously been constructed in the country during its emergence over the past decade and before the globally-hyped Beijing Olympics.Chanos did some math. He calculated the pace would result, divided by China's population of 1.3 billion people, at what amounts to one "five-by-five cubicle for every man, woman, and child in the country." That's when he began to play the drumbeat of a contrarian, stating flatly he sees China heading for economic bust.He was right about Enron and Tyco and sub-prime mortgages, and he'll be right about China, too.Wage Growth Will SlowPersonal income in China has been increasing at an estimated rate of 6 to 10 percent, according to estimates. The rise is directly attributable to the country's economic emergence, rising in the past year to become the world's second largest economy. But cheap labor made China an economic power and cheap labor will keep it that way. As businesses face rising costs, they'll do just as western companies do, and look to the one of the biggest cost areas to cut and control -- labor.The Government Can't Solve All Ills Some bullish-on-China observers who admit the country is in the midst of an economic bubble suggest there's little danger with China since the communist government will merely do all required to overcome the problem, at any cost.Peter Morici, a public policy professor at the University of Maryland, addressed this very issue in an interview with CNNMoney, noting that China could easily buoy its economy should conditions worsen, flooding the U.S. market and world "with extremely cheap stuff" to provide domestic [CONTINUES] Econ Uniqueness CONTINUING stimulus support. Although that equation doesn't address rising wages in China that may make such a move more difficult in the future as it was in the past, Morici was convicted that China's ability to make cheap goods, shipping them to the U.S. and throughout the world, provides the country distinct advantage."Remember," he said, "when we talk about bubbles, the stakes are the future of the communist party. They'll try to survive no matter what; and it could mean destroying other economies to do it."Try is the operative word. No question China's government will do all it can to avoid a complete economic meltdown, but let's not forget that while the steps are small compared to what most want, China has become more economically westernized through its growth period than what it once was. The more it mingles financially with the rest of the world, the harder it will be for the government to falsely buoy a bust.Also, the argument that the government will just make a bunch of cheap goods and flood the market means wage growth in China will slow -- a problem in an inflationary environment.That's why China's economic will burst sooner and with more harsh impact than many expect. China decline coming soon and spills over to the global economy Pietro Ventani, managing director of NPV Partners and editor of PV’s Investment Commentary, a prominent investment newsletter, 6/2311. “Why China Bears are Wrong” http://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-bears-are-wrong-2011-6 Near-term Scenarios While short-changing China would be a mistake of historical proportions, it would also be naive to expect its growth to continue in a linear fashion; China is overdue for a slow down which may be coming sooner than later. The one problem the Chinese government cannot tolerate is excessive inflation because of its potential to inflame unrest. While the latest official Inflation data is 5-6%, anecdotal evidence points toward far higher increases, especially in the coastal cities. Of particular concern is food price inflation which is in double digits and is particularly harsh on lower income segments of the population. While the authorities have adopted a multi-prong approach against inflation, including currency appreciation and repeated rate increases, the trillion dollar question is whether those efforts will cause a “hard” rather than “soft” landing for the economy. There is indeed the possibility of a “hard landing” should policy “overshoot” and annual growth slows to below 6%. Even in the worst case scenario the combination of fundamentals and fiscal health should provide China the ability to adjust its course and resume its “long march” to a modern and very prosperous society. China’s strong fundamentals and domestic markets should provide the country with some insulation from the vagaries of global financial instability. Yet, the opposite may be true and a significant China slowdown may end up playing a major role in destabilizing an already frail global economy. More specifically, a China “hard landing” may have chilling consequences across a number of markets: 1. Commodities: China’s demand is universally credited for driving prices of most natural resources both in terms of spot prices and derivatives. 2. Currencies: China’s demand of USD has been a critical support to the greenback for decades as exports are priced in dollars and a large amount of those have been used by China to purchase US Treasuries. Moreover the import of commodities from Australia and Brazil have also provided key support to those countries and their respective currencies. 3. Asia Region: China’s demand has been playing a critical role in the economies of most countries in the Asia Pacific region including Australia and Japan. Should China hit a soft patch, the repercussions on markets such as Taiwan, Korea or Hong Kong could be very recessive. Fiscal discipline now Space fiscal discipline now—budget for the past 11 years totaled 2.15 billion World Security Institute, 5. “Budget: China” for the China-US Dialogue on Space http://www.wsichina.org/space/program.cfm?programid=3&charid=1 A number of unofficial statements on various aspects of China's manned space program have been made but they vary in dimension and scope and thus provide only vague clues about budgetary numbers. Expenditures for the Shenzhou V[3] manned space program were estimated to be ￥1 billion (~$120 million) and a total cost for China's manned space program up to 2003 and over an 11 year period at approximately ￥18 billion (~$2.15 billion). The China National Space Administrator, Sun Laiyan, disclosed[4] that the development of China's space industry is an annual ￥2 billion (~$240 million). Chinese fiscal discipline in the space program now Xinhua News Agency, 10/12/06. Staff writers, “Chinese Annual Space Budget Exceeds Two Billion Dollars” http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinese_Annual_Space_Budget_Exceeds_Two_Billion_Dollars_999.html The Chinese government spends less than a tenth of NASA's budget on space activities, an official said here Thursday. The proposed 2007 budget of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) on civil space programs was nearly 17 billion dollars, while China's budget was less than one tenth of that figure, said Sun Laiyan, administrator of China National Space Administration. As a developing country, China ensured its space activities served its economic and social development and science technology development, he said. "In fact, we spend quite little on what we need to do," Sun said. The Chinese government had altogether spent about 19 billion yuan (2.4 billion U.S. dollars) on the first five Shenzhou spacecraft. The first "Shenzhou" unmanned experimental spacecraft was launched in 1999. Three more "Shenzhou" unmanned experimental spacecraft were launched in rapid succession. On October 15 and 16,2003, it launched and retrieved "Shenzhou V", China's first manned spacecraft, according to the white paper "China's Space Activities in 2006" published by the government Thursday. The government spent less than one billion yuan (125 million U.S. dollars) on the "Shenzhou VI" manned spacecraft last October, with two astronauts on board, Sun said. He said the budget for the first stage of China's lunar exploration program was just over one billion yuan (125 million U.S. dollars). China's first lunar-probe satellite to be launched next year, is part of the three-stage Chang'e Program which aims to place an unmanned vehicle on the moon by 2010. The project has a budget of 1.4 billion yuan (170 million U.S. dollars). Plan Kills Space Budget Chinese space program on the brink now—can’t sustain a new project C.P. Vick, Senior Technical Analyst, 6/25/10. “China's Space Industry Forecasting” for Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/china's_space_industry_forecasting.htm The space industry complains according to the Institute of Policy management of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) that it is being stymied by a lack of Western investment and not enough educated high technology resources (personnel) along with inadequate new infrastructure. (3) In reality the industry and government policies are to blame for the real economic ills of the defense, missile and space industry of China . These Chinese under funded stretched out space programs under this last five year plan 2001-2005 can now be explained as being based in China’s over performing economic problems. It is not helped by it product dumping on the world market or buy its excessive production of steel some five times as much as the US produces or their production of three submarines for each one the US produces and the production of 5,000 merchant ships verses the US, 300 a year for but a few examples. (10) This by definition is war time production scale efforts to keep the command economy employment going that no capitalist economy would tolerate. We now know that China ’s economy is in fact in serious trouble facing possible collapse from too much success in the Western economic zones which underscores the conflict between a capitalist economy versus a command economy. This is driven by the policy that over emphasis too many personnel, factory development and production capacity with considerable savings ie: emphasizing civil military technology development far in excess of what is needed without emphasizing the basic sciences in an appropriate proportion along with failure to reform the defense industries. The defense industries are supported by its command economy base which has no relationship with a capitalist financed based economy both of which are operating in China and are utterly incompatible. This is the formula that helped collapse the former Soviet Union when it put its emphasis on technological development over the basic sciences from the late 1950’s and early 1960’s. By the mid-1960’s the former Soviet Union knew it was in economic trouble but did not reform itself. In the recent past the Chinese leadership has admitted that if they had not reformed that part of the civil duel purpose economy they did that brought in Western economic investment that the Chinese economy would have collapsed. The incompatibility of the Western style capitalist economy with China ’s five year plan, fiscal command economy has been colliding for some time now with serious future implications now becoming apparent. Under China ’s command economy which in theory must employ everybody under the same government employer roof, the defense industry and general civil duel purpose industry seems to have excess personnel for to few jobs while it is set up for war time production capability which is very incompatible with a capitalist economy. China is also very dependent on foreign oil sources for its economy leaving it vulnerable to external influence as is also the United States . How this is impacting their civil military space programs has so far only begun to manifest itself with several major front line Science & Technology projects planning schedules impacted by major full five year plan slip in the planning schedule. This means that China is finding itself only marginally able to support these projects economically even though they are leading edge of S&T projects. Little wonder now that the present 11 th, five year plan 2006-2010 is putting much more emphasis in the development of the basic sciences to off set these economic failings in the Chinese economy. (1) See Physics Today December 2006 for China ’s “Outlook 15 year plan” in S & T and its “10 year Forecast plan” beyond the present “five year plan”. Chinese space program underfunded—can’t handle another mission C.P. Vick, Senior Technical Analyst, 6/25/10. “China's Space Industry Forecasting” for Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/china's_space_industry_forecasting.htm Clearly something has been lost in all the speculation going around that has not been looked at realistically. Several major things give the answers along with one other realization. That is that the Chinese PRC human crewed space programs are a stretched out under funded multi pronged program to push the basic sciences and technology for themselves. Two the development of the Long March-5 program and its support infrastructure development is a huge national resources burden draw from the funds available for space programs. There is only so much that this and the next five year plan can handle based on the obvious limits to the discretionary funds. Three it is stipulated that only “ four launches will be done in two years” that was started in the present Five Year Plan 1-2006 through 1-2011 but will only start flying between the two five year plan 2006-2010/2011-2015. To date that has not changed. There is one and only one Tiangong module launch in late 2010 fourth quarter now early first half of 2011 as presently planned due to technical delays. Talk of so called launches with a rapid succession of Shenzhou 8 after Tiangong-1 launch has now been stretched out for operations and personnel facilities resource limits. Shnenzou-8 is now scheduled for launch in the second half of 2011. Two more launches Shenzhou-9 & 10 missions possibly crewed in sequence are planned for the 2012 time frame). Tthe total stations life span is two years but that is dependent on the rate of the utilization of the expendables not all of which are replaceable as the design is presently understood. There was talk that once Tiangong 1 was launched the three Shenzhou 8, 9 &10 spacecraft wouldl “be launched with in a month of each other” in a series of rapid succession two launch operations not previously seen but built into the launch facility infrastructure’s capability on the Jiuquan infrastructure. None of these Tiangong modules will dock together as presently envisioned. Social Tradeoff
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