China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents
CONTINUES Chinese Space Good – North Korea
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- Space K 2 to Chinese Soft Power China’s space program is key to Chinese soft power Johnson-Freese ’7
- Chinese space activity creates soft power Johnson-Freese ’7
- Uniqueness – China winning US will lose space race to China Spillius ’10
- We will lose the space race – Chinese challenge
- Prestige DA - Uniqueness NASA funding cuts represents the end of space dominance Belz ’11
- US will lose space – China is motivated for prestige Gregory ’11
- US will lose the space race to China – this is key to national pride and stability Hennigan Vartabedian 7/22
- Link – zero-sum US space program threatens China Hitchens ‘3
- China perceives space as a zero-sum race Blair Yali ‘8
- China is using space to challenge US hege Hagt ‘7
- Link – zero-sum Every space policy is zero-sum Gilbert ‘8
CONTINUES Chinese Space Good – North Korea CONTINUED itself to be at risk from North Korean nuclear weapons, or from escalation that might ensue from next-use in the Korean Peninsula resulting not only in the environmental consequences noted above, but in regime collapse and massive refugee flows. South Korea and Japan appear willing to rely on their respective bilateral security pacts with the United States to deter North Korean nuclear attack for the time being. However, should South Korea and/or Japan acquire nuclear weapons, the outcome would be destabilizing, especially if this resulted from rupture of their alliance relationships with the United States. Both have the technical capability to do so very rapidly. South Korea has previously engaged in nuclear weapons research but desisted after US pressure. Japan still proclaims its adherence to the three Non-Nuclear Principles although recent confirmation that the United States routinely transited nuclear weapons through Japan and retains the right of emergency reintroduction of nuclear weapons has tarnished Japan’s non-nuclear image. Moreover, it has large stockpiles of plutonium that could rapidly be used to produce nuclear warheads. Such responses, already advocated by conservative and nationalist groups within South Korea and Japan, could trigger a regional nuclear arms race involving the Koreas, Japan, Taiwan, and China, with incalculable wider consequences for Southeast Asia, South Asia and the whole Pacific and beyond. These developments would spell the demise of the current global non-proliferation regime as underpinned by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Failure to reverse the DPRK’s nuclear breakout is also an important factor driving a general malaise in the exercise of American power which one of the authors has characterized elsewhere as “the end of American nuclear hegemony.”8 Space K 2 to Chinese Soft Power China’s space program is key to Chinese soft power Johnson-Freese ’7 Joan Johnson-Freese Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War College, expert on Chiense space development “China has been Actively Working to Improve its Global Image” Quite simply, prestige, as part of a larger package of actions, can have geostrategic implications. For the past several years, China has embarked on somewhat of a charm campaign throughout Asia and other parts of the world as well. It has carefully and deliberately sought to transform its image from that of a bully to that of a partner, using very realist political means. Aid packages to Africa, trade and aid packages throughout Asia, inroads into South American countries, not altruistically, but for resources, have nevertheless woven China into the tapestry of the international community. Polls taken in 2005 are indicative of China's success. According to a Pew Research Center poll taken in April and May 2005, "China now has a better image than the U.S. in most European nations surveyed." China's manned space program provides gloss to its positive image, especially in the developing world, which is in its benefit to perpetuate. Chinese space activity creates soft power Johnson-Freese ’7 Joan Johnson-Freese Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War College, expert on Chiense space development “China’s Space Ambitions” Space activity, particularly manned spaceflight, also yields considerable prestige, prestige that translates into political prowess. China, as a rising Asian power, is inherently interested in prestige cum geostrategic influence. The implications of a manned space launch did not go unnoticed, for example, by the Japanese. After the first Chinese launch in 2003, one Japanese official was quoted as saying, “Japan is likely to be the one to take the severest blow from the Chinese success. A country capable of launching any time will have a large influence in terms of diplomacy at the United Nations and military affairs. Moves to buy products from a country succeeding in manned space flight may occur.”3 The point about buying products from a country having successfully launched a man into space relates back to economic growth and the creation of technical jobs. As Tsinghua University Professor Yan Xuetong said in 2003, “Now people will realize that we don’t only make clothes and shoes.”4 Uniqueness – China winning US will lose space race to China Spillius ’10. Alex Spillius Telegraph’s Washington Correspondent 4/15/10 [The Telegraph US faces losing space race to Russia and China] But opposition is rising in Congress, which must approve the plans, leading Mr Obama to retain a small part of Constellation as a compromise. "That just drags out the pain and slows everything down for a long time," said Brewster Shaw, the chairman of Boeing's space division. Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon, warned in an open letter this week that Mr Obama's proposal "destines our nation to become one of second- or even third-rate stature". China this week announced that it intends to leapfrog the US by putting a large spacecraft in orbit before the end of this decade, at which point American astronauts are still likely to be riding to the ISS on Russian vehicles. They also announced plans to launch three spacecraft between 2011 and 2016 to form the basis of a manned space station. Americans retain great pride in winning the space race with the Soviet Union, and the president himself has spoken of the excitement he experienced as a boy watching the Apollo landings. Though it is rarely said publicly, consecutive US administrations have however determined that the old levels of spending on space are unaffordable. Mr Obama's space experts have insisted that cooperation with other nations is the only realistic option in the long term. We will lose the space race – Chinese challenge Leonard ‘8 Tom Leonard Daily Telegraph's New York correspondent 7/10/8 The Telegraph “America losing its lead in the space race” America is losing its lead in the space race as other countries challenge its dominance on the "final frontier", the head of Nasa has warned. The more obvious rivals such as Russia and Europe have been joined by countries as diverse as Brazil, Israel and India, which are all launching their own space programmes. A recent report on international space competitiveness by Futron, an American technology consultancy, concluded that "systemic and competitive forces threaten US space leadership". America had failed to keep track of how quickly the "globalisation" of space was occurring, the study said. Meanwhile, as Asians and Europeans became increasingly enthusiastic about manned space exploration, public interest in the US was "limited", said the study. In 1998, the US launched 121 new satellites but that number had fallen to 53 - about 50 per cent of the total - by 2007. Michael Griffin, Nasa's administrator, acknowledged that the US space agency's budget had fallen by 20 per cent in real terms since 1992. He told the Washington Post: "We spent many tens of billions of dollars during the Apolla era to purchase a commanding lead in space over all nations on Earth." "We've been living off the fruit of that purchase for 40 years and have not... chosen to invest at a level that would preserve that commanding lead." Mr Griffin has lobbied the US Congress for an increase in its $17 billion annual budget after it was turned down by the Senate. US space experts note how, in so many areas in which it has made gradual progress over the years, other countries are now catching up by leaps and bounds. India has followed China in announcing a manned space programme, while the European Union is expected to approve a plan in November to collaborate with Russia on a similar project. Japanese and Chinese satellites are circling the moon and will eventually be joined by ones from India and Russia. When men next returns to the moon, experts believe they will be Chinese. The country has sent men into space twice in the past five years, with another mission scheduled for October. Mr Griffin said the Chinese had a "carefully thought-out human space flight programme" that would make them space equals with the US and Russia. Prestige DA - Uniqueness NASA funding cuts represents the end of space dominance Belz ’11. Andrea Belz PhD, product catalyst, specializing in strategies that transform innovation into profits 7/20/11 [Commerce Times “NASA: From Kennedy to the Ming Dynasty”] The decline of the space program marks a loss in many related fields, as research and development funding associated with the Space Race led to many stunning technology successes in the U.S., including digital image processing used in MRIs, miniature electronics for pacemakers, memory foam mattresses and air bags for cars. The original Internet was born from defense funding. While the U.S. has forfeited its commanding lead, other countries are picking up speed, with Japan, India, Israel, China, and the European Union now managing active space exploration programs. And Russia has begun to dominate the space marketplace: The end of the space shuttle program means that the price of a seat on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft will increase from $25 million to $60 million between now and 2016. How ironic that the descendant of the Soviet Union would win the Space Race in the space market. The decline of the space program marks a loss in many related fields, as research and development funding associated with the Space Race led to many stunning technology successes in the United States, including digital image processing used in MRIs, miniature electronics for pacemakers, memory foam mattresses, air bags for cars, and hundreds of other applications. The original Internet was born from defense funding. There is no question that spinoffs from the aerospace industry have transformed society. In addition, the Space Race inspired the funding of education at all levels to staff the aerospace industry with the landmark National Defense Education Act of 1958. Unfortunately, the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War resulted in abandonment of the effort to maintain a competitive educational system. Thus the long death spiral of American education began. Earlier this year, the National Assessment of Educational Progress test determined that only 60 percent of high-school seniors understood basic science such as explaining the relationship of the calendar to the amount of daylight. How can you explore the universe when you don't understand how daylight and the calendar are related? Lost in the Shuffle So, the U.S. has chosen to relegate itself to the mass of competitors following Russia's lead -- like Lance Armstrong voluntarily surrendering his lead to the peloton. Meanwhile, America's rapid engineering advances will also likely slow down as the government stops sustaining the pool of technology research and technology funding. Finally, the U.S. is starving itself of the lifeblood of new engineers prepared to take on the challenges of advancing exploration. US will lose space – China is motivated for prestige Gregory ’11 Bill Gregory Lieutenant Colonel, USAF, Ret. NASA Astronaut 2011 “U.S. leadership in space is no longer a sure thing” Houston Chronicle Despite the national, military and economic benefits of our efforts in space, these programs invariably end up in the crosshairs when budgets get tight - not because of economics but because of politics. In short, because NASA has been responsible and hasn't sprinkled its projects and facilities across a sufficient number of congressional districts, it often pays the political price on the budget guillotine. But our competitors don't sleep in the meantime. China seeks the global prestige and technological edge that comes from space success, and already has dozens of space launches under its belt, including a lunar probe. Next up, it plans to orbit a permanent space station and send Chinese astronauts to the moon. India plans to send astronauts to both the moon and Mars. Brazil, Russia, Japan - even our deadly adversary Iran - are challenging us for the jobs, innovation and military advantages of the high ground of space US will lose the space race to China – this is key to national pride and stability Hennigan & Vartabedian 7/22. W.J. Hennigan and Ralph Vartabedian [LA Times correspondents on NASA and international space operations] 2011 LA Times Foreign nations push into space as U.S. pulls back As NASA retreats from an ambitious human spaceflight program for the foreseeable future, foreign countries are moving ahead with their own multibillion-dollar plans to go to the moon, build space stations and even take the long voyage to Mars. Although most of the world still lags far behind the United States in space technology and engineering know-how, other nations are engaging in a new space race and building their own space research centers, rockets, satellites and lunar rovers. Their ambitions are a declaration of their economic and technological arrival. And it's not just the Russians. Later this year, China plans to launch into orbit the first phase of its own space station. The country has already launched six people into outer space and hopes to put a man on the moon sometime after 2020. India is working on its second robotic trip to the moon, with plans to land a rover on the moon's surface in two years. It wants to send a human into outer space by 2016. The European Space Agency is studying a trip to Mars by conducting a 520-day simulated voyage to the red planet. Six volunteers from various countries have been locked in isolation in a windowless mock spaceship, eating canned foods — except when they trudged through red sand and spiked flags into a mockup of Mars' surface. Iran plans to send a monkey into space in the summer, clearing the way for a man to follow. Countries such as Israel, Japan, North Korea and South Korea are busy building their own rockets and launching them from their own facilities. Foreign countries are decades behind the U.S. in their space programs, said Jim Lovell, commander of the tumultuous Apollo 13 mission and a member of Apollo 8, the first mission to orbit the moon. But their human spaceflight programs are just beginning as the shuttle era comes to an end for NASA. "There should be a hollow feeling in Americans' stomachs when Atlantis lands," Lovell said. "It's hard to believe that other nations will surpass us in space technology. But if we continue down the road we're headed, it can be done. I hope we turn it around soon." Russia, of course, has long been America's closest competitor — and partner in more recent years — in space technology, and it continues to have a $7 billion-a-year space program. It shares command of the International Space Station. By comparison, the Obama administration's proposed NASA funding for fiscal year 2012 was $18.7 billion, but a House appropriations panel cut that to $16.8 billion last week, taking money out of NASA's space exploration and science budgets, among other areas. The panel also eliminated funding for the James Webb Space Telescope, the partially built successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, which is among the most successful NASA programs in history. "It's like a slap in the face for the American public who are watching their government abdicate leadership in space," said Eugene Cernan, the last astronaut to walk on the moon, in 1972. Now that the shuttle fleet is headed for retirement, the U.S. will travel to the space station on a Russian Soyuz rocket. Russia will charge NASA $63 million to carry an astronaut. And in a unforeseen development, U.S. astronauts are learning Russian so they can converse with the cosmonauts. NASA wants private companies to one day take astronauts to the station, but that hardware isn't yet ready. The space agency also has plans to build a new launch system to send humans on deep space missions, including a mission to land on an asteroid by the mid-2020s. But the exact destination of future missions and a formal schedule has not been defined, and there is no guarantees for the financial commitment of the billions of federal dollars needed. The space agency has long touted that its half-century in the space race has reaped lasting economic benefits and pushed forward the technological boundaries in a wide range of disciplines, including exotic materials and medical applications. The program has also helped motivate a generation of youth to pursue careers in science and technology. But as the luster of the Apollo moon landings gave way to a repetitious space shuttle program, human spaceflight became routine and almost mundane for many Americans. As a result, Congress perceives little public zeal to proceed with ambitious space travel. "It is sad to see the end of the shuttle with nothing to go onto," said Jeremiah Pearson, former NASA associate administrator for human spaceflight. "We are going to become a Third World nation in spaceflight." That is not the case for China, whose manned Shenzhou missions received constant live TV coverage and significant events during the missions such as the launch and recovery made front-page news in the nation. The Chinese space budget is not published and is difficult to calculate. John Pike, executive director of GlobalSecurity.org, estimates that it is more than $5 billion. Last year, the Chinese government began building a 3,000-acre space center on Hainan Island in the South China Sea, its fourth launch facility. China, striving to become a global economic powerhouse, has touted the economic benefits of the program. "There's a very organized propaganda effort on behalf of the Chinese government about the program," said Gregory Kulacki, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists who is based in Beijing. "They see the space program as a source of national pride." Link – zero-sum US space program threatens China Hitchens ‘3 Christopher Hitchens English-American author and journalist voted the world's fifth top public intellectual in a Prospect/Foreign Policy poll 2003[ Disarmament Forum Making Space for Security? “China Pursuing Space Weapons to Counter American Space Dominance”] According to the Pentagon, China already has jamming technology and may be developing ASAT capabilities, including a ground-based high-energy laser and other lasers to blind optical satellites. However, as indicated, much of China's interest in space seems to stem directly from concerns about American military activities in space. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, China's worries about protecting its space-based assets are due to concern about American development of missile defences and future American global dominance as a result of American space power. Indeed, at the 7 February 2002 meeting of the CD, Hu specifically mentioned American actions as a key reason that negotiations on the weaponization of space should commence quickly. 'Now that the ABM [Anti-Ballistic Missile] Treaty has been scrapped and efforts are being stepped up to develop missile defence and outer space weapon systems, there is an increasing risk of outer space being weaponized', he said. China perceives space as a zero-sum race Blair & Yali ‘8. Bruce Blair [President of the World Security Institute, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution from 1987-2000] Chen Yalli [editor in chief of Washington Observer] 2008 “Editors’ Notes: The Space Security Dilemma” China Security A zero-sum mindset toward space is hardening in China as a result of this apprehension, as amply illustrated in the public media. Space is eyed in China as an area of resources and possibilities to be acquired before it’s too late. Shu Xing, whose book is reviewed later in this journal, likens the grabbing of satellite orbits to the “Enclosure Movement” in late 18th Century England in which the more capability one has, the more resources one can seize. Another reviewed author argued that countries scramble into space to fight for the tremendous resources found there and “once this fight for resources causes irreconcilable conflicts, it may lead to radical space confrontations.” A space war seems to many Chinese to be another form of resource war. Such urgency in seeking control over resources is not unique to space, but also applies to energy and other areas. Given China’s population and rapid economic growth, controlling resources is understandably a paramount concern. Regarding space, however, a zero-sum (‘win-lose’) attitude is narrow-minded and misguided. If feverish competition for resources in space causes Sino-American relations to deteriorate or leads to the outbreak of war between them, then both parties lose. China is using space to challenge US hege Hagt ‘7 Eric Hagt director of the China Program at the World Security Institute, in Washington, D.C. and Beijing. His research interests include Sino-U.S. relations in the field of space, energy and a range of non-traditional security issues. [China Security “China’s ASAT Test: Strategic Response”] Finally, to focus only on the impact on the future security in space by this ASAT weapon test would be to miss the larger strategic undercurrent that it represents. While its purpose may have been only a specific challenge to U.S. intentions to dominate space, China has lucidly demonstrated a willingness to challenge U.S. policies and strategies that are inherently threatening to China. America's unipolar moment probably died with its decision to go into Iraq. Now, its ability to act without consideration of others' security interests is being challenged. The Chinese call this "hegemony" and they are now opposing it openly. As this article began, China was not challenging U.S. power in space; it was challenging the U.S. self-described right to dominate it. With America's vulnerability in space, this test is in fact the easier way to challenge the United States (to do so conventionally would be suicidal). If the United States continues to pursue its own strategic and security interests at the exclusion of China (or others), it should be prepared for more confrontation, especially if that impinges on China's core national interests. Conceding this is not about surrendering strategic ground to a potential or future adversary, it's about reaching accommodation and common ground that is not only equitable but inevitable. Link – zero-sum Every space policy is zero-sum Gilbert ‘8 Jo-Anne M. Gilbert writer for the Griffith Asia Institute 2008 “Space is not a vacuum: Australiaís future in the new frontier” Griffith Asia Institute http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/space_08/submissions/sub59.pdf The political relationship between the United States and China is complex, and will shape the environment of space for the foreseeable future. The United States perceives China’s involvement in space as a zero-sum game; that is every advance that China makes in space, comes at a cost to the U.S. space program. China, on the other hand, seeks to ensure its rights to access space - a place where the United States can claim technological dominance, but not legal sovereignty. The United States has attempted to control the outward flow of technology, while China has increased its soft power by making space accessible to countries that would not otherwise have the capacity. China's level of space capability and competitiveness means that it is more attractive, especially financially, to countries in our region than the United States. For countries that lack space infrastructure, Chinaís approach is the preferable option. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.57 Mb. Share with your friends:
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