China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents
Space race is zero sum – US dominance is a Chinese loss. This destabilizes relations
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- Zero-sum mindset towards space hurts China relations and causes war Blair Yali ‘6
- Link – Zero Sum US view of space results in zero-sum – causes space weaponization Peoples ‘8
- Link – Weaponization is Zero Sum Space weaponization is zero sum – results in military space race Shixiu ‘7
- Zero sum in space escalates Hagt ‘7
- Uniqueness: China Winning China’s winning now Hardcastle ’11
- China Space is Benign China can’t challenge US power – weapons will be defensive Shixiu ‘7
- A2: Threatens US China doesn’t threaten US – space race is an east-Asia contest for soft power Wiggin ’10
- US-China Relations Prevent Extinction US-China relations prevent extinction Cohen 9
- China Conflict Causes Extinction China war leads to extinction Hunkovic, 09
- ***CHINA ECON NET BENEFIT*** 1nc shell
Space race is zero sum – US dominance is a Chinese loss. This destabilizes relations Martel & Yoshihara ‘3. William Martel [PhD in Political Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Associate Professor of International Security Studies Yoshihara [Analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, RAND, and the American Enterprise Institute. He holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, an M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies] 2003 The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology “Averting a Sino-U.S.Space Race” At the same time that the United States views space dominance as a funda- mental tenet of its national security, China evidently views U.S. space dominance as a major threat to its geostrategic interests. These views inevitably breed a zero-sum competition, in which one side perceives any loss as a gain for the other, and could ultimately prove destabilizing for Sino-U.S. relations. First, Beijing perceives the proposed U.S. missile defense system, which will be supported by an array of space systems and sensors, as a strategic menace to China and to international security.15 Many China watchers con- tend that this perception stems from anxieties that any conceivable system of missile defenses being developed by the Bush administration will under- mine China’s small nuclear deterrent.16 Beijing remains wary of the joint re- search program on missile defense by the U.S.-Japanese alliance, which the PRC sees as a potential partnership for blocking Chinese regional aspira- tions or, in broader terms, for containing China. Of particular concern for Beijing is the possibility that Tokyo’s decision formally to join U.S. plans for deploying missile defense in Northeast Asia will significantly increase Japan’s military capabilities by providing an opportunity for Japanese forces to enjoy unprecedented military integration with U.S. forces in the areas of space- based intelligence and communications. Zero-sum mindset towards space hurts China relations and causes war Blair & Yali ‘6. Bruce Blair [Publisher, president of the World Security Institute (WSI)] Chen Yali [editor-in-chief of the Washington Observer Weekly] 2006 China Security “China’s Space Ambitions” A zero-sum mindset toward space is hardening in China as a result of this apprehension, as amply illustrated in the public media. Space is eyed in China as an area of resources and possibilities to be acquired before it’s too late. Shu Xing, whose book is reviewed later in this journal, likens the grabbing of satellite orbits to the “Enclosure Movement” in late 18th Century England in which the more capability one has, the more resources one can seize. Another reviewed author argued that countries scramble into space to fight for the tremendous resources found there and “once this fight for resources causes irreconcilable conflicts, it may lead to radical space confrontations.” A space war seems to many Chinese to be another form of resource war. Such urgency in seeking control over resources is not unique to space, but also applies to energy and other areas. Given China’s population and rapid economic growth, controlling resources is understandably a paramount concern. Regarding space, however, a zero-sum (‘win-lose’) attitude is narrow-minded and misguided. If feverish competition for resources in space causes Sino-American relations to deteriorate or leads to the outbreak of war between them, then both parties lose. Link – Zero Sum US view of space results in zero-sum – causes space weaponization Peoples ‘8 Columba Peoples Department of Politics and International Relations. 2008 [Political Studies Association “Assuming the Inevitable? Policy Perspectives on the Weaponization of Outer Space.”] Moreover, Chinese officials have also shown a propensity to recycle versions of the inevitability thesis, gleaned from US rhetoric, as a spur to action. In April 2002, Vice Foreign Minister Qiao Zonghuai declared that: It will not take long before drawings of space weapons and weapon systems [are] turned into lethal combat instruments in outer space. Meanwhile, military doctrines and [concepts] such as “control of space” and “ensuring space superiority” have been unveiled successively, and space operation [command] headquarters and combatant troops are in the making. If we should remain indifferent to the above-mentioned developments, an arms race would very likely emerge in outer space in the foreseeable future. Outer space would eventually become the fourth battlefield besides land, sea and air.42 In turn, Johnson-Freese and Erickson argue, there is a tendency in Washington to ‘view space primarily through a military lens’ with the result being a ‘zero-sum approach which considers virtually all Chinese space advances as threatening.’43 In consequence the US has placed tight export controls on the supply of advanced technology to China, and, one recent report goes so far as to claim, the NSP of 2006 is ‘explicitly aimed at preserving the capability gap between China and the US in space.’44 Link – Weaponization is Zero Sum Space weaponization is zero sum – results in military space race Shixiu ‘7 Bao Shixiu [senior fellow of military theory studies and international relations at the Institute for Military Thought Studies] 2007 [“China Directly Threatened by Revised U.S. National Space Policy” China Security] The NSP presents a number of challenges to China's security environment. First, it grants the United States with exclusive rights to space: the right to use any and all necessary means to ensure American security while at the same time denying adversaries access to space for "hostile purposes." This sets up an inequitable environment of "haves" and "have-nots" in space, raising suspicion amongst nations. For instance, the NSP declares that U.S. space systems should be guaranteed safe passage over all countries without exception (such as "interference" by other countries, even when done for the purpose of safeguarding their sovereignty and their space integrity). With its significant space assets and military space capabilities, this situation gives the United States an obvious and unfair strategic advantage in space. Second, it refutes international restrictions and undercuts potential international agreements that seek to constrain America's use of space. This effectively undermines any potential initiatives put forth by the international community to control space weaponization– initiatives that China supports. This U.S. position leads the global community to suspect U.S. unilateralist intentions in space. Lastly, while the policy may not state it explicitly, a critical examination of its contents suggest its intention to "dissuade and deter" other countries, including China, from possessing space capabilities that can challenge the United States in any way– a parameter that would effectively disallow China to possess even a minimum means of national defense in space. The resultant security environment in space is one with one set of rules for the United States and another set of rules for other nations. In such a context, only U.S. security concerns are taken into account with a result of the reinforcement of a zero-sum dynamic to which space is already prone and threatens to pressure others into a military space race. Zero sum in space escalates Hagt ‘7 Eric Hagt Director, China Program. World Security Institute 3/29/2007 [U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION, “China’s Military Modernization And Its Impact On The United States And The Asia-Pacific”] The paradigm the United States faces with regard to China in space, particularly in the aftermath of China’s ASAT test, is one of a classic security dilemma commonly defined as two states that are drawn into conflict because the actions of one state to increase its security are interpreted as threatening to the other state, leading to a cycle of provocation. Space is highly susceptible to this zero-sum dynamic because of the blurring between defensive and offensive capabilities in space as well as the dual-use nature of space technology. China has demonstrated that it has interests in space and will no longer accept the status quo of U.S. plans for space dominance. While this may have had a deterrent and defensive intent, it is perceived as inherently threatening to U.S. assets in space. The security dilemma in Sino-U.S. relations is particularly troublesome as the two countries develop a complex relationship that is economically close, politically ambiguous and potentially adversarial militarily. How can the vicious circle of the security dilemma in space be broken? It will require a highly creative mix of measures to give China greater strategic room and access to outer space that will not at the same time appear as U.S. weakness (which may encourage China), or as giving up substantial strategic ground (which is politically infeasible). Uniqueness: China Winning China’s winning now Hardcastle ’11. Michael Hardcastle columnist for The Oracle 7/18/11 [The Oracle “America needs a new space race”] http://www.usforacle.com/america-needs-a-new-space-race-1.2606035 The final space shuttle launch at the Kennedy Space Center earlier this month signified the end of an era, and for many Americans, that last flight carried the same bitter disappointment of a child giving up dreams of becoming an astronaut. The pragmatic Obama administration scrapped most of the grandiose Constellation program and defunded NASA to shift emphasis to private space ventures. Sure, space travel is expensive, impractical even, but it is also undeniably cool, and NASA has inspired generations of Americans. If Americans are going to continue to be a nation of people who look to the sky with optimism and hope, they must find a way to arouse a renewed interest in space, both private and public. "To get more money for human spaceflight, there needs to be a compelling reason to do it," said Roger Launius, space history curator at the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum, to space.com. "Either that reason doesn't exist, or it hasn't been articulated." A new space race could serve that purpose. The push to the moon was in no small part influenced by America's Cold War rivalry with Russia. Yet, America is now entirely reliant on the unwavering Russian space program to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station. In a way, Russia has finally won the space race. China may be the best candidate for a new rival. In the past decade, China became the third country to put a human in space using its own rockets and Chinese "Taikonauts" began space walks. While the U.S. space program faces stagnation, rapidly advancing China plans to have its own space station by 2020, according to Forbes. China plans to land a probe on the moon within two years and to put humans on the moon as early as 2025, according to the Guardian. Perhaps the thought of a Chinese flag planted in the lunar soil next to the American one will light a fire under U.S. investors. Europe, India and Japan also have their eye on the sky and a potential multi-nation space race threatens to leave America in the moon dust. A private Japanese consortium wants to construct and land a two-legged humanoid robot to walk on the moon. Chinese Taikonauts and Japanese androids may make U.S. space dominance a thing of the past. For better or for worse, the private sector now controls America's extraterrestrial future, and it is time to embrace that. After all, capitalism and a free market are a point of pride among Americans, and NASA was often criticized for the waste and inefficiency typical of government agencies. China Space is Benign China can’t challenge US power – weapons will be defensive Shixiu ‘7 Bao Shixiu [senior fellow of military theory studies and international relations at the Institute for Military Thought Studies] 2007 “China Lacks the Means or Motivation to Engage U.S. in a Space Arms Race, its Motives are Primarily Defensive” China Security Despite the need for an effective deterrent to meet security challenges that China may confront in space, it will not initiate a space weapons race with the United States or any other country. First, China does not have the ambition to enter a space weapons race. During the Cold War period, faced with a threat of nuclear war, China did not join in the nuclear weapons race between the United States and the Soviet Union. Today, China's space program is pointed in the direction of peaceful development. The new political and diplomatic doctrines – a harmonious society and world – also curb China's entrance to a space weapons race. Second, China does not have the ability to enter a space weapons race. Although China has ambitious plans in space, the technical gap, especially in the military area vis-à-vis the United States, is difficult if not impossible to fill. China will not and cannot expend significant budgetary resources pursuing space weapons, but will instead focus on civilian and commercial space assets. So, if China owns space weapons, their number and quality will be limited in their capacity to act as an effective defense mechanism and will not be a threat to other countries. A2: Threatens US China doesn’t threaten US – space race is an east-Asia contest for soft power Wiggin ’10 Stuart Wiggin freelance journalist in Beijing, holds a politics degree from Oxford. 2010 Global Times “Asian space race more about prestige than power” At the start of this month China launched its first lunar probe. This was the latest step of an arduous journey, with the final goal of sending a manned mission to the moon. Many countries have praised Chinese efforts in space exploration, but some observers have been left with the puzzling question of why the Chinese government feels the need to pursue a space program now. Are these efforts purely related to scientific research, or is China actually trying to com-pete with the world's leading space powers? The true answer lies somewhere in the middle. China is one of only three countries to have sent manned flights into space, and in doing so they have confirmed their status as a world leader in innovation and technological capability. Yet, amid these great achievements, some observers have misread China's efforts at pursuing a space program as an challenge to the US. When China destroyed one of its own weather satellites with a ballistic missile in 2007, many felt that this was a flexing of military muscle. However, the 2008 space walk and the launching of the Chang'e-2 probes should not be interpreted along the same lines. China is not attempting to trigger a 21st century space race between itself and the US. If there is a space race, it's an Asian one. India, Japan, South Korea and China are all competing for ascendancy and popular glory. In the competition to be among the world's new powers, space is an important frontier. The US is looking on with interest, but is not alarmed about the situation and has almost no interest in responding with a competitive stance. This relaxed viewpoint is because China is still four decades or so behind the US in its technological capabilities in space and, while they are closing the gap fast, it will be some time before China is in direct competition with the US in this field. China's space ambitions can be fruitfully compared to the 19th century imperial adventures of European nations. Many then recently created European countries, such as Belgium, Germany, and Italy, followed Britain's lead in carving up the globe in an effort to confirm their status as a nation-state. Asian space exploration is not driven by the same urge, but is a way of pursuing legitimacy in the eyes of the developed world, as well as appealing to domestic needs. Through the space program, China not only gains legitimacy as a functioning and capable nation in the eyes of outside observers, but more importantly, it gains legitimacy among its own people. Success in space is a huge boost to national pride and a strong sign of advances barely thought possible a decade earlier. The official standpoint regarding China's space program is that it represents the fundamental task of humanity to research humanity's origin and develop a sustainable lifestyle, as stated by Qian Weiping, a chief designer of the Chang'e-2 mission. Qian went on to say that it is China's responsibility to carry out such research, rather than an act of imitation. Whether out of responsibility, or a desire to prove to the rest of the world that they are indeed capable of success in space, a large element of pride is at play within the motivating factors, evidenced by Qian's declaration to the nation that "we will shorten the gap (between China and the US/Russia) fast." China's space program is ambitious, but has a long way to go. But nobody seriously doubts that China will meet its goals in space, advertising both to foreigners and to a domestic audience its new status as a technological power. US-China Relations Prevent Extinction US-China relations prevent extinction Cohen 9 (William S. Cohen is chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group, a strategic business consulting firm based in Washington, D.C. Secretary Cohen served as U.S. secretary of defense, Maurice R. Greenberg is chairman and CEO of C.V. Starr & Co., Inc. Mr. Greenberg retired four years ago as chairman and CEO of American International Group (AIG) after more than 40 years of leadership, creating the largest insurance company in history, “Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations,” pg online @ http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090309_mcgiffert_uschinasmartpower_web.pdf //ef) The evolution of Sino-U.S. relations over the next months, years, and decades has the potential to have a greater impact on global security and prosperity than any other bilateral or multilateral arrangement. In this sense, many analysts consider the US.-China diplomatic relationship to be the most influential in the world. Without question, strong and stable U.S. alliances provide the foundation for the protection and promotion of U.S. and global interests. Yet within that broad framework, the trajectory of U.S.-China relations will determine the success, or failure, of efforts to address the toughest global challenges: global financial stability, energy security and climate change, nonproliferation, and terrorism, among other pressing issues. Shepherding that trajectory in the most constructive direction possible must therefore be a priority for Washington and Beijing. Virtually no major global challenge can be met without U.S.-China cooperation. The uncertainty of that future trajectory and the "strategic mistrust" between leaders in Washington and Beijing necessarily concerns many experts and policymakers in both countries. Although some U.S. analysts see China as a strategic competitor—deliberately vying with the United States for energy resources, military superiority, and international political influence alike— analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has generally found that China uses its soft power to pursue its own, largely economic, international agenda primarily to achieve its domestic objectives of economic growth and social stability.1 Although Beijing certainly has an eye on Washington, not all of its actions are undertaken as a counterpoint to the United States. In addition, CSIS research suggests that growing Chinese soft power in developing countries may have influenced recent U.S. decisions to engage more actively and reinvest in soft-power tools that have atrophied during the past decade. To the extent that there exists a competition between the United States and China, therefore, it may be mobilizing both countries to strengthen their ability to solve global problems. China Conflict Causes Extinction China war leads to extinction Hunkovic, 09 – American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf] A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great Britain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the two most dominant members. If China were able to successfully annex Taiwan, the possibility exists that they could then plan to attack Japan and begin a policy of aggressive expansionism in East and Southeast Asia, as well as the Pacific and even into India, which could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces to contain the threat. In any case, if China and the United States engage in a full-scale conflict, there are few countries in the world that will not be economically and/or militarily affected by it. However, China, Taiwan and United States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine its eventual outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study. ***CHINA ECON NET BENEFIT*** 1nc shell The Chinese space industry improves multiple indicators of economic progress—GDP, tech growth, aerospace workforce, and education Kevin Pollpeter, China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, previously worked at RAND, Strategic Studies Institute, March 2008, “ Building for the Future: China’s Progress in Space Technology During the Tenth 5-Year Plan and the U.S. Response” Economic Benefits. China has embraced its space program as a driver for economic and technological advancement. China’s 2006 white paper states: “Since the space industry is an important part of the national overall development strategy, China will maintain long term, steady development in this field.” China’s support for its space program lies in its potential to spark innovation. Innovation has been identified as a key factor for economic growth, yet much of China’s growth has come through increasing inputs rather than through productivity gains. Moreover, much of China’s technological advancement has come through the importation of foreign technology. As James Kynge writes in China Shakes the World, China’s technological advancement “is driven not so much by research as by commerce. Chinese companies, by and large, derive their technologies by buying them, copying them, or encouraging a foreign partner to transfer them as part of the price of access to a large potential market.” 70 A report by the RAND Corporation 29 notes that the most profitable defense industries, information technology, and shipbuilding are also the ones that have the most access to foreign technology. 71 China’s space industry hopes to not only follow in the footsteps of these industries, but also achieve success by indigenously developing technologies that not only spur development within the industry but also have spillover effects for the entire economy. Despite these hopes, the Chinese government acknowledges that it still has far to go. The vice chair of the Chinese Association for Science and Technology has acknowledged that China’s space technology is still in an experimental stage. 72 The space industry is still too immature to make large contributions to China’s economic development and makes up less than 1 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). China’s space technology is also recognized as still developing while other industries in China rely on mature technology. Because of this, the space industry has not been able to realize the spin-off benefits other industries have experienced since Chinese companies favor foreign technologies over domestically produced technologies. Given these challenges, the space industry is expected to have difficulty making a meaningful impact on China’s economy in the near term. 73 Nevertheless, a foundation has been laid for the space program to benefit other sectors of the economy. In regards to human capital, China’s space industry keeps large numbers of engineers employed and motivates others to become involved in high technology fields. The Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA), for example, has 23,000 students, about one-third of them directly involved in aerospace. In 2001, space-related research and educational programs at BUAA were reported to have increased by 20 percent. 7430 The training of so many highly skilled workers can also benefit the entire economy. It is possible that some of these engineers either directly after graduation or later in their careers may be employed in non-aerospace jobs. In fact, maintaining a large pool of aerospace engineers and scientists presents a strategic advantage for China and a long-term challenge for the United States. China’s increasing number of engineers and scientists coincides with the drop in the number of U.S. citizens graduating with advanced technical degrees. If these trends continue, it will become increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain its technical advantage. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.57 Mb. Share with your friends:
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